European Challenge Cup Final Betting: Cardiff v Toulon

Rugby Union / Geoffrey Riddle / 20 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jonny Wilkinson's optimism has so far proved justified

"Toulon are beatable but they look a fair price at [1.51] and while Cardiff may have a chance, I struggle to believe that it is as good as their [3.1] price implies."

The Blues will be out to make amends for previous failures across the Channel when they meet Toulon in Sunday's final. However, the French side are the favourites and a certain Englishman is determined to cap a fine season.

Welsh teams have always struggled in France. It's something to be discussed elsewhere, perhaps with a fine bottle of wine and at length, but the fact remains that Cardiff travel to Marseille for Sunday's European Challenge Cup showdown with Toulon dogged by the statistic that sides from the principality have a win percentage of just over 10% on French turf in European competition.

It's a pathetic return from such a consistently talented pool of players and one that the Blues are itching to address in just their second European final. Cardiff's first final was in the inaugural Heineken Cup when they lost 21-18 to perennial favourites Toulouse in the Arms Park, so you'd imagine the chance to avenge that defeat in the French port would be at the top of their priority list.

And there are several reasons to believe that perhaps Dai Young's troops will not be one of the many who get felled either by the flair of French teams or by the brutal tribalism of their fans. For starters, they have nine of the 27-man Wales squad issued by Warren Gatland on Monday for the match against South Africa and the tour to New Zealand this summer. If they can't win in Marseille, then good luck in Dunedin. The side is beautifully balanced. Gethin Jenkins props up the scrum superbly with Faao Filise and the back-row trio of Martyn Williams, Maama Molitika and the departing Xavier Rush can be extraordinarily effective at times. Out wide, too, the sheer brutishness of British Lion Jamie Roberts is mixed into a Molotov cocktail of attacking rugby with the incisive running of Casey Lualua and Leigh Halfpenny.

And there's more, too. Young has dispatched his side to virtually every corner of Britain and Ireland recently and picked up a victory. The Blues have varied their approach as well, grinding out an 18-15 win at Adam's Park against Wasps earlier this month, having thrashed Newcastle, Ulster and Glasgow. They picked up some local bragging rights as well just for good measure by beating the Dragons and Scarlets.

This sequence of road wins has led many to believe that Cardiff are amongst the best sides in Europe and that they can shrug off their pitiful record in France, which reads P16 W2 D1 L13. I have long been an advocate of the Euro rugby ranking service, which often provides a good starting point for those who like to rank teams, and they make Cardiff the second best team in European competition. It's a lot to stomach for Toulon fans, especially when you consider that the long list of road victories I mentioned earlier were against mediocre to basement teams.

In an interview with Jonny Wilkinson for this website in September it was interesting to note that England's revered fly-half truly believed that before he had kicked a ball in anger that his Touon side could win the French championship. Toulon finished ninth last season, having flirted with relegation, and their progress is a testament to the skills of coach Philippe Saint-Andre. It also says a lot about the drive and professionalism of the 16 new players he brought in that they have gelled so well in such a short space of time. Although they finished second, Toulon's 18 league victories were more than any other team, and their painful extra-time defeat to Clermont in the semi-finals was their first loss in 12 games.

That setback shows that the Toulon are beatable, and the visitors will draw strength from this fact, but betting is all about the level at which you get involved and Toulon look a fair price at [1.51]. Cardiff may well have a good chance of winning the Challenge Cup, but I struggle to believe that it is as good as their [3.1] price implies, or as the handicap start of 5.5 offers them.