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Rugby Union Betting: Winner Johnson acts on evidence before sentiment

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He may no longer be able to lead by example on the pitch but Martin Johnson is bringing all the leadership qualities of his playing career to coaching. So much so, says Ralph Ellis, that England could be a healthy long term investment for the 2011 World Cup.

Martin Johnson will always have a place in England's sporting hall of fame. As captain of the 2003 team who went to Australia and won the Rugby World Cup he's up there with any of the greats.

If you've never seen the fly on the wall documentary which chronicled what went on behind the scenes of that great triumph, then try to get the DVD. There's a pre-match pep talk by Johnson which is simply awe inspiring. He talks in quiet, serious, intense tones about how each player will support each other, how you won't let your mate down, how you'll give every last drop of blood and effort in support of the cause. By the time you've finished watching you're ready to go out and play.

Now come the first signs that Johnson is capable of taking that intensity forward when he's no longer leading by example. His first set of serious team selections are those of a ruthless winner who is acting on the evidence of his eyes rather than sentiment.

He's dropped his World Cup winning team-mate Josh Lewsey and dumped eight others including Gloucester's Olly Barkley for the Autumn international series which starts against the Pacific Islands on November 8. And he's fast tracked former New Zealand Under-21 centre Riki Flutey straight into his plans just a few weeks after the 28-year-old Maori qualified under the three year residency rule thanks to two seasons at London Irish and one at Wasps.

The ethics of that decision are for another debate - the same argument that is already gathering pace around Manuel Almunia's hopes of playing in goal for Fabio Capello's England football team.

What it does prove is that Johnson remains just as single minded about winning as a manager as he was when he was playing and that suggests good times ahead for his team. "There will be times when you have to leave guys out and make difficult decisions," he says. "You have to make the right decision for the team. If you are honest with people, explain why you have made the decision, then you can live with yourself."

Johnson's leadership explains why England are now [3.5] favourites for the RBS Six Nations later this season. And there's a better long term punt to be had on his chances of landing the really big prize by lifting the next World Cup in New Zealand in 2011.

The All Blacks, not surprisingly, are [2.1] favourites for that, while England lag behind both South Africa and Australia in the betting at as long as [11.5]. A good set of results in the Autumn internationals could bring those odds down a bit and turn it into a healthy long term investment.

Five things you might not know about Martin Johnson

1. Born in Solihull in the West Midlands, he started out playing American Football for Leicester Panthers

2. Invited to go to New Zealand to play rugby for King Country, he met his wife Kay there and even played for New Zealand's Under-21 side.

3. He was preparing to play for Leicester Tigers when Wade Dooley's injury meant he was rushed to Twickenham to make his Test debut against France in 1993.

4. He captained the British Lions tours in 1997 and 2001, making him the only man to lead the Lions twice

5. He's still a fan of American football, supporting the San Francisco 49ers, and worked on ITV's commentary team for the 2007 Super Bowl