Guinness Premiership Round 10 Betting Preview: Featuring Quins v Leicester and the visit of London Irish to Saracens

English Rugby / Geoffrey Riddle / 24 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Riddle looks at the big Christmas fixtures in the Guinness Premiership.

The wrapping paper may be on your presents by now, the bloody carol singers might even be outside, but punters have got a few hours to spare over the next two days to work out some choice bets for the crammed Christmas period.

Only one Guinness Premiership match takes place on Boxing Day. There is a feast of live action on the 27th, however, when Harlequins face Leicester at Twickenham in front of a sell-out 50,000, while Saracens take on Premiership high-flyers London Irish at Vicarage Road.

I have to confess that at the beginning of the season I thought that Sarries would finish ahead of the Exiles. I thought that too many players had left the Madejski, and that Eddie Jones would mould Sarries into a team capable of at least challenging for a play-off spot.

And last weekend, when Sarries were leading Wasps 17-12 going in to the final ten minutes of their clash at Adams Park, it suddenly looked like Jones had got it all to click. Wasps substitute Dave Walder on the other hand, had other ideas, and he orchestrated two quick-fire tries to take the game away from Sarries. Paul Sackey finished the job having charged down a Noah Cato punt late on. Are Saracens doomed to the eternal role of the nearly men?

There is limited liquidity in the market at the moment, and although some fixed-odds firms have made Sarries slight favourites, I wouldn't be surprised if Irish were jollies by kick-off time.

They looked superb against Gloucester last weekend, and coach Toby Booth has been a revelation this season, utilising the ELVs to his side's considerable advantage. When will people learn that flanker Steffon Armitage likes to stand in the fly-half channel? We all saw this in week one when Armitage did damage to a Wasps' back-row move at Twickenham.

Sarries have faced both Gloucester and Harlequins at Vicarage Road this season and lost both matches by narrow margins. They went down to Gloucester 25-21, and 24-21 to Quins, and it must be remembered that Irish have lost just once away from home in the league this season, by 24-22 to Leicester. I really do think that Irish could be, or perhaps, should be around [1.75] for this fixture. They have won their last 10 games in all competitions and so good is their form, that they are top of the Premiership for the first time in nine years.

I see another high-scoring, small margin defeat for Sarries here, although perhaps the best value in the match could be Irish on the winning margin at odds-against.

Harlequins' clash with Leicester is a different proposition. Matches on neutral territory have a very different ethos to them, although it must be said that neither side are exactly strangers to HQ. Twickers is a sell-out at only 50,000 because of traffic restrictions, although there should be a very good atmosphere in the ground.

Last week, Quins showed their true colours once again. They led 13-6 at the break against Northampton at Franklin's Gardens. Yellow cards to Andy Gomarsall and Tani Fuga spoiled that good work though, and they eventually lost 23-13. Only four teams have led Quins at the break in their 16 games this season. For those interested, Llanelli, Ospreys, Stade and Leicester were the lucky quartet.

Harlequins will not start this match as favourites, and probably quite rightly too given that Leicester sit two places above them in the league table.

But there is no getting away from the fact that Quins ping the lids in their matches and it may well pay to back them early with a view to laying off at a significantly shorter price in-running. Perhaps even Quins-Leicester the double result may be of interest...

I can hear carols outside. I must dash. Merry Christmas to you all, and good luck on what looks a huge punting day on Boxing Day.