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Guinness Premiership Final Betting: A true clash of the titans

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Lawrence Dallaglio plays his final game as a Wasp, and he will face the old enemy. While this game may not have the intense feel of previous fixtures between these two sides, the Tigers will certainly be out to ruin the great man's farewell party.

It is only fitting that the two outstanding English teams of the modern era go head-to-head in the Premiership final at Twickenham in front of what is expected to be a world-record crowd for a club game.

As pointed out by Lawrence Dallaglio at a press conference on Thursday, the two sides have a combined tally of nine league titles and four Heineken Cups, and we should be in for a fitting finale to this Premiership season.

Dallaglio, who will bow out after this crunching tie, was the force that drove Wasps to their three consecutive Grand Final wins in 2003, 2004 and 2005. He, more than anyone else, will know the dangers of focusing on the emotion that retirement will bring to this day.

Dallaglio used the issue to rally his troops three years ago, when Leicester were wiped off the park 39-14 in front of a disbelieving Twickenham crowd for the swansong of Martin Johnson and Neil Back. Dallaglio received the man-of-the-match award that day, and if Wasps were to repeat the feat, it must be odds-on that Lol scoops the honour again.

For anyone who watched the two semi-finals a fortnight ago, it is easy to see why Betfair traders make Wasps slight favourites at around [1.97]. A mistake by Josh Lewsey early in the game apart, Wasps put in a consummate performance against Bath at Adams Park, brushing aside the section's form team 21-10. It was somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory however, as the loss of Danny Cipriani and Tom Voyce will be acutely felt by coach Ian McGeechan.

The new Lions coach has been testing Riki Flutey and Jeremy Staunton at fly-half all week, but in choosing Flutey, McGeechan hopes that the former Wellington Hurricane can kick up a storm in attack.

Only Gloucester and Harlequins have beaten Wasps in the Premiership since October 20, and their skillsets are very different to what power-packed Leicester have to offer. Marcelo Loffreda's side looked dead and buried at Kingsholm two weeks ago, but a nervy second-half from the Premiership table-toppers saw the Tigers roar into their fourth successive Premiership final.

Make no mistake, Leicester will see the loss of Cipriani and Voyce as a golden opportunity for them, and they certainly have the nuts and bolts to retain their title. It could be their recent Achilles heel however, that sees them finish the 80 minutes second best.

Quins, Newcastle, Bath and Wasps have all scored the first try of the match against Leicester recently, all in the first ten minutes, and if Wasps cross the whitewash early on at Twickenham, it could be curtains for Loffreda and his team. The [1.91] that Wasps score the first try therefore could be the key to the whole game.

The lead has changed hands on just two occasions in Premiership finals. In 2004, Bath lead Wasps 6-3 after 64 minutes, before Stuart Abbott touched down to break West Country hearts. Gloucester took an early 3-0 lead against the Tigers last year, before losing 44-16. In-running punters should take note if either side opens up more than a three-point gap.

Last week for the Heineken Cup final, I highlighted Jean-Baptiste Elissalde's penchant for a drop-goal, which was revealed once more in the tenth minute. There have been five drop-goals in the five Premiership Grand Finals, and Andy Goode's last-gasp three-pointer against Gloucester may find some punters eager to back Leicester to open the scoring with one in the first scoring play market.

What is perhaps the most striking trading market on Betfair though, is total points. The market has been pitched at 43.5 over/under, and although at the time of writing the market had yet to go liquid, if that is indeed the biting point of the prices, then it looks too low.

The last three Premiership finals have all exceeded that level by some margin, and both sides always seem to look for scoring opportunities. Since 2000, the two teams have played each other 23 times with an average total points figure standing at just over 48. Their knock-out fixtures have yielded two make-ups over that level, and two under, the most recent being of course, their 34-24 EDF Energy Cup semi-final, which ended in Leicester's favour.

Of the five Premiership Grand Finals, only Bath have managed to lose by a single-figure margin, and although it is fanciful to image that Wasps will thump Leicester in this one, you have to think that although the Tigers will be a difficult obstacle, Ian McGeechan's men will surmount anything on the way to their fourth Grand Final triumph.

The Betting

Wasps [1.96] v Leicester [2.16] Draw [24.0]