Guinness Premiership Betting: Weekend preview

English Rugby / Geoffrey Riddle / 19 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

This week's Premiership action has been overlooked by Sky TV's producers in favour of a veterans' game at the Cabbage Patch. It is for a good cause, of that there is no doubt, but you'd be mad to bet on it. Geoff Riddle identifies value in the weekend's league fixtures.

Due to the Help for Heroes game that takes place at Twickenham this weekend, there is no live coverage of the Premiership in round three. The league boasts some intriguing match-ups though, especially with winless Wasps visiting Northampton at a sold out Franklin's Gardens, and a dodgy Gloucester hosting high-flying Harlequins at the refurbished Kingsholm.

First up, however, is Bristol, who take on Sale at the Memorial Ground. Bristol's two defeats so far to Bath at home in week one, and Harlequins last weekend at The Stoop, has seen their price harden for relegation. Richard Hill's squad are as short as [2.76] to finish bottom, and they are challenging Newcastle who trade at [2.68].

Hill read the riot act to his squad earlier this week. He gave them a real beasting in training and subsequently a big effort is expected against the Sharks. Sale have struggled to get out of first gear recently, and initially the visitors could be a lay in the match market at around [1.44].

In last year's fixture at the Memorial Ground, when Sale won 24-17, neither side had got onto the scoresheet before half-time. If you go further back in their head-to-heads, Sale were 8-6 up at Edgeley Park in September 2007, after drawing 3-3 in January. The year before that, Bristol went into the break level at 6-6 at home.

Both teams' results this season only reinforce the belief. Sale led 11-6 at the break at Newcastle in week one, while Eddie Jones's Saracens were actually leading 9-6 at half-time last weekend in Stockport, before eventually succumbing 18-15. Bristol trailed Harlequins by six points at the interval and don't forget they were drawing with Bath at half-time in their opening fixture of this season.

Although there is little liquidity in the market at the moment, it may be worth putting up something like [8.5] in the Bristol/Sale half-time/full-time market and wait for the fish to bite. Sale have yet to concede a try in their two outings so far, so punters might also consider the total points market. Betfair have set the level at over/under 37.5.

A lot has been made of Wasps' disappointing start to the season. People have looked at last year's template, when Wasps came back from tenth place at the end of October to finish second in the league, and consider it to be the Wasps' way. Not true. Punters must remember that last year's idiosyncratic campaign was largely down to the World Cup taking a huge chunk of Ian McGeechan's squad to France. In the three seasons prior to '07-08, Wasps were never in the bottom half from October onwards, and a home defeat to side like Worcester is a big worry for McGeechan and coach Shaun Edwards.

Of course this is all good news for the Franklin's Gardens' faithful, who will be dreaming of taking their first big scalp since coming back up from National League One. Early birds on Betfair make Northampton as short as [2.22], and as the fixed-odds firms go 6-4. That price is sure to drift.

Wasps are not renowned for their prowess on the road and it is surprising how many times they trip up to bottom-half teams away from Adams Park. We all know that the squad is capable of a result virtually anywhere in Europe, so only the brave will be laying the visitors at prices that look inflated due to their shock start to the season. But, fortune doesn't favour the meek, does it!

If you include Worcester's barnstorming finish to last season, the Warriors have lost just two of their last ten games, indicating that Leicester may be in for a rough ride at Sixways. Worcester have the look of a side that is on the up, and their sensational win at Adams Park last week will have buoyed the squad no end.

Since Cecil Duckworth's millions brought Worcester their Premiership status in 2004, the Warriors have failed to secure at least a losing bonus point at Sixways only eight times. Now it is inescapable that Worcester are playing their best rugby since arriving in the top-flight, while although impressive so far, Leicester are certainly way off their best. Betfair's handicap was not up at the time of writing, but match odds of [2.62] Worcester and [1.64] Leicester indicate that a handicap start of around six to seven points for the Warriors is not out of the question.

Finally we get to Gloucester's must-win clash against Harlequins. If Quins have any pretensions of being a top-four side this season, they must front up at Kingsholm. Last year Wasps were defeated there by a single point, Bath went down by two, and Leicester scalped the Cherry and Whites 20-13. The Tigers got their campaign off to a sensational start last weekend with another victory at Kingsholm, and it seems that all is not well with Dean Ryan's men.