Guinness Premiership Betting: Time for Wasps to get flying

English Rugby / Geoffrey Riddle / 26 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

A trip to Welford Road is the last thing a faltering Wasps need after three straight defeats. Geoffrey Riddle previews that match and the pick of this weekend's domestic rugby union fixtures.

One of the central tenets of the British Army is to concentrate on 'selection and maintenance of the aim.' It is a philosophy that Wasps appear to have taken on in the past. Their single-minded pursuit of the Premiership Grand Final at the expense of finishing first in the league has seen them accumulate four Premiership titles in the last six years.

Ian McGeechan and Shaun Edwards would do well to remember that dictum then ahead of their do-or-die face-off against high-flying Leicester at Welford Road in round four of the Guinness Premiership.

Wasps look all over the place at the moment, and they had never started a season with three defeats before this campaign. They seem to lack focus, none more so than Josh Lewsey, who put in a miserable performance under the high ball last week. He gifted Northampton two tries with lazy-looking play, and don't forget that at the end of last season he put in a shocker against Bath in the semi-final play-off.

Why have Wasps lost focus? Is it the loss of Lawrence Dallaglio, their former skipper, who no longer spurns them on? Is it the absence of injured fly-half Danny Cipriani? The more likely explanation is that the players have one eye on the November internationals, Six Nations and, of course, the Lions Tour of South Africa later in the season. The latter statement seems true of McGeechan and Edwards, both of whom must juggle external commitments with their day jobs.

Everyone associated with the club seems to have a lot on their plate, and things may get a lot worse before they get any better. From tonight's showdown against the Tigers, Wasps then visit The Rec to face Bath on Wednesday, before making the journey to Kingsholm for the EDF Energy Cup clash with Gloucester. It is a punishing schedule, and one which the punter who laid £20 at [4.5] about the champions to finish first in the regular season must be rubbing his hands with glee. Wasps now trade at around [17.0] in that market.

The flip side to tonight's tussle is that Wasps have a decent record in recent times against their old adversaries. The London club won 24-19 the last time they visited Welford Road. It was a sweet victory, not only because it avenged their EDF Energy Cup defeat to Leicester a week previously, but also because it was their first success in the Tigers' lair.

Wasps also were victorious at Twickenham in the Grand Final, and memories of that 26-16 scoreline will go a long way to injecting the belief that the squad will need in these troubled times. McGeechan can also call on the curious statistic that Leicester have lost their last three matches under floodlights.

The Tigers trade at [1.44] in the match betting market and the regular handicap sees the visitors receive 7.5 points. Wasps' critics will be interested to see that they also get a 19.5-point headstart.

Wasps clearly have the ability, of that there is no question, but Leicester are the best-performing team in the league at the moment, and the [1.44] looks fair value given that historically, Wasps have always struggled at Welford Road, particularly early in the season. Defeat would make this the first time they have lost four on the trot since the 2001-2002 season.

In the rest of the Premiership, punters will have noticed that five of the six games last week finished with a win of seven points or less. That means we are now up to 11 out of 18 games this season to see a losing bonus point.

The more tactically-aware will also have noticed that since the introduction of the Experimental Law Variations, the amount of kicking from hand has increased dramatically. Edwards highlighted this in his column in The Guardian last week, and you have only got to look at Sale's reliance on Charlie Hodgson's boot to see what emphasis is currently being placed on the territorial game.

With that in mind, Sale's clash with Gloucester promises to be an interesting encounter. This is historically a high-scoring match with an average total points make-up well into the high 40s over the last decade. Yet the Sharks have yet to concede a try this season, and Gloucester are hardly playing at full-throttle. Interesting therefore, that total points have been pitched at 38.5 on the exchange, particularly with a clear night forecast over Stockport. Fascinating furthermore to see that Sale are [1.73] to win, with Gloucester at [2.44] to record their first ever win at Edgeley Park in five visits.