Guinness Premiership Betting: The omens look good for Wasps

English Rugby / Geoffrey Riddle / 17 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Riddle takes a look through the history books to find the answer as to why Wasps are the favourites to win the Grand Final. Before that though, there are two massive matches this Sunday to think about...

Before getting into details about each of the playoff semi-finals, it helps to look at the playoff picture as a whole since the process began at the end of the 2003 season. Only Sale have finished top in the league and ultimately triumphed in 2006, with the runner-up in the Premiership going on to win the Grand Final in the other four years. No Grand Final winner has finished the league with less than 68 points either.

It's not the biggest sample of statistics, but it highlights why Betfair traders and bookmakers have made Wasps, who have won nine of their last ten fixtures in a typical end-of-season flourish, their [2.86] Grand Final favourites.

Gloucester, who have led the league for 21 of the 22 rounds, have finished top for the second year in succession and are priced at [3.25], probably on account of the fact that they have blown two Premiership finals. Bath [5-5.4] and Leicester [5.6-6.2] bid to become the first sides to win away in the playoffs at Adams Park and Kingsholm respectively.

Wasps [1.58] v Bath [2.78] Draw [29.0]

Wasps scored the double over Bath this season, and it is interesting to note that when Ian McGeechan's side beat Bath 25-10 at Adams Park in December, the bookmakers were offering handicaps of 8-10 points. At the time, Wasps were languishing in 7th place, 12 points behind their West Country rivals, and yet in this Premiership semi-final playoff, with Wasps sitting higher in the league, Bath receive a reduced 5.5 point start.

This obviously has a lot to do with how Steve Meehan's side have been playing of late. Their thrilling gameplan, which concentrates on virtually unstoppable constant offloading has proved incredibly effective. If you look at their form objectively however, they have been beaten by every team they have visited who finished in the top six. Sale even managed it twice, the other victory coming in the EDF Energy Cup.

Last week's West Country derby was a dour affair that Gloucester simply couldn't and wouldn't lose. Bath's Olly Barkley, who has successfully kicked his last 15 attempts at goal, secured his side a foothold in the game which they couldn't capitalise on, eventually going down 8-6.
Other than their 22-16 loss to Harlequins, Bath have slipped to double-figure defeats to all the other top-half teams and they could be in for another one here.

So far, the play-offs have bucked the trend in world rugby that if there is more at stake the closer the games are. Wasps 19-10 defeat of Northampton in 2003, a team it must be remembered, who had won six of their last seven matches going into their playoff, is the smallest winning margin out of all seven play-offs semi-final fixtures so far.

There have been some fearful hammerings in the past, and although it might be fanciful to see Bath go down by a huge margin, they still look up against it.

The best avenue for profit though, could be to get long of total points. Although there is little liquidity in the market at the moment, Betfair have set the level at 45.5 under/over. Both teams look for the tryline and have kickers who accurately keep the scoreboard ticking over - often a vital and overlooked commodity.

Four of their last six encounters have yielded over 45 points (one featured 44) at an average of 52.8. Wasps have notched 67 tries in this Premiership campaign - the best since Leicester crossed the whitewash 75 times in the 2004-05 season - and points and tries should flow in what is forecast to be a clear day.

Gloucester [1.61] v Leicester [2.78] Draw [28.0]

The fixed-odds bookmakers are either hedging liabilities at the moment, or they are taking markedly differing views on this fixture. Some go as short as 1-2 about Gloucester, while others are happy to lay 4-6.

This may have something to do with the fact that Leicester are the only Premiership side to have tasted success at Kingsholm this season. To balance that out though, Gloucester won at Welford Road, and since the Tigers' 20-13 victory in front of the Shedheads in February, they have lost all four of their subsequent road matches.

Gloucester have had some close shaves at Kingsholm this season, and against good teams too, beating Bath 8-6, Harlequins 27-25, and just edging out Wasps 18-17, which should give encouragement to Leicester backers. The handicap has been set at 4.5 points in the visitors favour, and at the time of writing, the Tigers shade favouritism at around [1.8].

The best angle in this match however, could be to cash in on Gloucester's current propensity to score tries early. In three of their last four home games, they have opened the scoring of the match with a five-pointer, and they did the same at Adams Park when beating Wasps 25-17 two weeks ago. A try as the first scoring play could be an interesting and profitable way to invest your hard-earned.