English Rugby / Geoffrey Riddle / 04 September 2008 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle looks at the top contenders for this year's Guiness Premiership and explains the play-off system for punters.

Before getting down to the nuts and bolts of who will prevail in the Guinness Premiership this season, it is necessary to differentiate between the two betting markets 'regular season winner' and 'Grand Final winner'.

Punters must understand that the two are very different. Since the introduction of the play-off system in 2002-2003 the focus for teams has shifted now from wanting to top the league to simply finishing in the top two. The reason for this is that the first two in the Premiership get home advantage in the play-offs, a significant advantage.

Of course the emphasis change is only very slight, but wanting to be the best team over 22 matches, or just one of the best teams in the section it is still an important one. In the six-year history of the play-offs, only Sale have accumulated the most league points and gone on to win the Grand Final at Twickenham.

The other five times it was the side that finished second which went on to lift the trophy. Perhaps this is due to a less arduous campaign (Wasps finished a full 15 points behind Gloucester in the inaugural playoffs season), but also because the winner of the Grand Final is the side that performs the best over just two matches. So when punters consider who is going to be the 'regular season winner', they need to dissect which squad is the strongest, the most durable, and which will be affected the least by international call-ups.

Having easier games during November, February and March also helps. The Grand Final winner generally is the team that is freshest, and best prepared at the business end of the season, and most crucially of all, can boast the best run-on side in the Premiership.

This explains why Gloucester, who have finished first in the league in three of the last six seasons, are the favourites at [4.4] to be the regular season winners, whereas Wasps, who have timed their run to perfection in four of the last six years are the [3.8] market leaders in Grand Final market.

Gloucester have a stellar cast and should put in another strong performance in the regular season. If you look at their transfers during the summer big names have gone both ways. The headlines have concentrated on the movement of Olly Barkley from West Country rivals Bath, but the signing of All Black prop Greg Somerville seems to have slipped under the radar.

The Cherry and Whites certainly have the best squad of players, and they only have three in England's Performance Squad so international call-ups should not affect them. In the November international window they face Saracens, Bristol and Northampton - surely some of the easier fixtures - and they could build up a head of steam early on.

The only problem with backing them to finish top is their price. It is certainly no giveaway. Sale have a similarly impressive squad, have few problems with international call-ups and are over twice the price at [9.0].

Leicester and Bath both seem to have their difficulties. The Tigers' squad have had a tough time of it recently, what with Argentinean coach Marcelo Loffreda leaving in acrimonious circumstances after guiding the side to the Grand Final last season. New gaffer Heyneke Meyer, who guided the Super 14 franchise the Bulls to their first title last year, has arrived and has brought his rather flaky fly-half Derrick Houggard into the fold. Meyer is a shrewd tactician, but his game-plan can sometimes be limited, and for those who like to lay, [5.0] looks a decent level to be getting involved at in the regular season market.

Bath have been rocked by the exodus of Barkley and Steve Borthwick, both of whom had the club coursing through their veins. The addition of former Wallaby Justin Harrison at lock and former League player Shontayne Hape should soothe things somewhat, but the biggest problem for Bath is what to do with instrumental fly-half Butch James.

James was monumental last season, but it has to be remembered that he has been playing non-stop rugby since May last year. He has endured a brutal time in this season's Tri Nations and is bound to be focusing on turning out for South Africa against the Lions next year.

Bath were sensational to watch last season, making the most passes, carries, meters made and offloads. They also made the third-most clean breaks. Not only was their attacking rugby brilliant, but their defending was excellent, too. They conceded just 37 tries last season, and if James is unfazed by fatigue, they look over-priced at [10.5] for the regular season.

Wasps favouritism for the Grand Final is largely due to their excellent record in that fixture, not to mention the meticulous planning that coaches Shaun Edwards and Ian McGeechan put in. McGeechan has been made coach of the Lions, however, and Edwards has been widely tipped to be involved also, after his work with Wales in the Six Nations last season contributed to their Grand Slam success. It is a lot of balls to juggle for those two, and if Bath do make it into the top two, they have the nous and the ability to win the big one.