Guinness Premiership Betting: Exiles drained by departures as decisive action keeps Sharks moving

English Rugby / Geoffrey Riddle / 03 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Of last season's four mid-table clubs, The Exiles have been drained by departures while Harlequins and Sale look upwardly-mobile, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Of the four teams who finished in mid-table in last season's Guinness Premiership, only London Irish look to be starting this campaign on the back foot. There are good reasons for believing that Saracens, and in particular Harlequins and Sale, should improve on their respective eighth, seventh and sixth placings last term, but the Exiles may have it all to do if they have a hope of replicating last term's seventh place finish.

For starters, their coach, Brian Smith, has been poached by England for his attacking vision, and although his replacement, Toby Booth, is certainly no mug, he and his assistant, Mike Catt, will have a hell of a job in trying to improve on last season's return of just two try-bonus points.

Despite the natural attacking talent that Booth can boast, with the likes of Sailosi Tagicakibau, Topsy Ojo and Delon Armitage in the back three, London Irish actually won most of their matches in the league through defence, conceding just 37 tries, the joint-best in the league with Sale and Bath.

The transfer list looks departure heavy. Wasps' James Buckland, Harlequins' Chris Hala'Ufia and Sale's Elvis Seveali'i have bolstered the squad, but the loss of Argentinean No.8 Juan Leguizamon to Stade Francais is a huge blow, while the departures of Nils Mortdt, Phil Murphy and Gonzalo Tiesi look draining.

Don't get me wrong, London Irish are from being a poor side but their situation is the worst of these four teams, especially when you look at their fixture list. Their first five games are: Wasps (Twickenham), Leicester (a), Bath (h), Harlequins (a) and Sale (h).

Although playing Wasps first up is probably the best time to encounter the reigning champions, given their record at the start of the season, it still is a tall order. It could all get worse for the Exiles before things start getting better, and there may be a few who might consider nibbling the [15.0] on offer for the Reading-based club to go into Premiership exile after their 22 league matches.

Harlequins and Sale look the most upwardly-mobile units in the league. Dean Richard's Londoners were within an ace of being a top-four side last season. After a poor start to their campaign, which saw them lose four of their first nine league matches, a change in playing style saw them finish well, almost beating Leicester at Welford Road on the final day of the regular season.

Richards' squad scored an astonishing 15 bonus-points, a joint-Premiership record, and of their 10 defeats last season, only one saw them leave the field with neither a losing bonus-point nor a try-scoring one. In the past four seasons, the teams who accumulated the most losing bonus-points in the previous season all improved their standings the following year. You've only got to look at Bath last term, and Gloucester the season before, to see what sort of improvement can be made with a few minor adjustments.

And tweaks have been made at Harlequins, too. Richards has landed a coup in signing fly-half Nick Evans from the Super 14 franchise Auckland Blues. Quite simply, Evans is potentially one of the best No.10s in the world. Furthermore, Quins' fixture list has been kind to them: Saracens (Twickenham), Bristol (h), Gloucester (a), London Irish (h) and Worcester (a), with fixtures against Wasps, Leicester and Bath during the November internationals. They look a potential trading proposition at [21.0], should liquidity improve in the regular season market.

Philippe Saint-Andre has taken decisive action after his Sale side painfully missed out on the play-offs on the final day of the regular season. A myopic display against London Irish at Edgeley Park saw them slump to a 17-7 defeat, and they scored their consolation points in the dying seconds of the match.

A massive clear-out has taken place, some not entirely according to the wishes of the French coach, with rising star Ben Foden a particularly painful loss to Northampton. Still, Welsh international Dwayne Peel, England's Mathew Tait and Kristian Ormsby from New Zealand all bolster what is still an accomplished squad. Remember, only Tait and Andrew Sheridan feature in England's elite squad, and the international windows should have a limited effect on the Sharks. They look over-priced at [9.8] to repeat their table-topping feat in 2006, and considering they went on to win the play-offs that year, perhaps the [9.0] to win the Grand Final may also appeal to some, certainly as a trading price.

Saracens have recruited the ever-wily Eddie Jones as their coach, and the Aussie has concentrated on beefing up what is already a fearsome pack. Steve Borthwick and Michael Owen will be instrumental in providing ball at the line-out under the new ELVs, while the hard-nosed Wikus van Heerden looks an eye-catching acquisition from the Bulls in South Africa.

Sarries have an easy-looking EDF Cup group with games against Northampton and Llanelli at Vicarage Road, followed by a trip to uninterested Bristol in October. Their hit-an-miss approach could be well-suited to that competition, after their magnificent run in the Heineken Cup last season.