Rugby Union Betting: Ospreys firm favourites to retain EDF Energy Cup

EDF Energy Anglo Welsh Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 04 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Welsh side are rightful favourites to keep the EDF Cup out of English hands again this season, says Geoffrey Riddle.

After a month of solid league action both in the Magners League and the Premiership, we don't get that again until the end of December as the EDF Energy Cup, Heineken Cup and November Internationals all swing into action over the next few weeks.

The EDF Energy Cup starts with a whimper with the unappealing Pool A clash between Newport-Gwent Dragons and Newcastle Falcons at Rodney Parade. The BBC 2 Wales fixture pits the seventh team in the Magners League against the eighth in the Premiership, and it must be said that neither side has lit up their respective competitions.

The Dragons boast just 64 points in their four outings this season, although they were unlucky not to beat Llanelli in an all-Welsh humdinger three weeks ago. Head coach Paul Turner has hardly called the cavalry either. He boasted earlier on in the week that he has named former Wales flanker Colin Charvis in his match squad.

That said, the Dragons actually have a decent record against English teams on home soil over the last few years. A 45-17 drubbing by London Irish in the Heineken Cup last season aside, Wasps were held 3-3 in this competition 12 months ago, and Gloucester only edged a 13-11 victory. We all know that Newcastle have one of the worst away records in the Premiership, too. Head coach Steve Bates has had to ring the changes as his side play their third fixture in just eight days. He has named a young and untested side, and Newport look fair value at anything better than [1.5].

The BBC are crowing about their live fare on Saturday, and they are right to do so. Gloucester host an out-of-sorts Wasps, who, despite all the ridiculous fanfare about the return of England fly-half Danny Cipriani, managed to lose at home to Bath on Wednesday night.

Wasps scintillating 28-19 victory over Leicester at Welford Road last Friday shows that none of the ability, passion or verve has been lost by Ian McGeechan's men in their current malaise, but their slump, which has seen them lose all their other games, is a serious worry.

It's difficult really to know what to make of Wasps, because that victory at Welford Road was their seventh road win from their last eight fixtures away from Adams Park. Perhaps they will be better against Gloucester than at home to Bath.

The weekend's final live fixture sees the reigning EDF Energy Cup champions take on Harlequins, the Premiership's entertainers. Both sides like to throw the ball about, and anyone who watched Quins blitz Worcester in mid-week will know what I mean.

Although the teams are yet to be announced at the time of writing, one avenue to profit could be the half-time/full-time market, or at least the half-time handicap. Harlequins' gameplan since Dean Richards turned their season around at the beginning of the calendar year has been to smash the opposition early.

Look at their games at the end of last season, most notably when they were leading Leicester 21-12 at half-time at Welford Road, and you can see the pattern. They were 13-5 to the good against Gloucester at Kingsholm a fortnight ago, too, before losing 24-20.

It is a strategy that is the mirror opposite to how the Ospreys have generally played. Last season, much like the Wales team that comprised so many of the region's players, the Ospreys played a pressure game, often scoring most of their points in the second half. Although there has been a change of coaching staff this season at the Liberty Stadium, the Ospreys struggled against Cardiff in the first half in their second game of the season before winning 32-10, and it was a similar situation against Glasgow three days later. Even in their 43-0 drubbing of Ulster on Saturday, they scored more points in the second half than the first.

Something around the [9.5] mark for Harlequins/Ospreys half-time/full-time might prove profitable should both sides name decent starting line-ups and Quins have freshened up the side who played on Thursday.

As far as who is going to win the whole thing, the Ospreys are rightly favourites at [4.0] to keep their hands on the trophy. Nine of the last 12 semi-finalists have had the considerable benefit of two home Pool fixtures, something that the Welsh franchise have this year, but did not enjoy last year.

The other teams that have two home ties this time around are: Gloucester [5.5], Saracens [8.0], Sale [13.0], Cardiff [15.0], Northampton [26.0], Worcester [50.0] and Newcastle [55.0].

Of those, Sarries have by far the easiest Pool, with Bristol, who are in dire straits in the Premiership, and haven't taken this competition seriously over the last few years, Northampton and the Scarlets. At [8.0] on Betfair - the best price available in the betting village - Eddie Jones's men look fair value.