EDF Energy Anglo Welsh Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 26 March 2009 / Leave a comment

This weekend's EDF Energy Cup semi-final double-header at the Ricoh Arena will provide rugby punters with clues as to what the British Lions team will look like as well as prime betting opportunities.

I'm still suffering the fall-out from having a monster bet on the Welsh to beat Ireland in the final round of the Six Nations. It was a bet that I thought was fully justified, and one which may have come off had Stephen Jones had the confidence to give a long-range penalty attempt in the dying seconds to Gavin Henson, who, to be fair, had missed one earlier in the match.

If Jones starts in the Test series for the Lions this summer, at least he will be safe in the knowledge that both of the latter two matches are at altitude, in Pretoria and Johannesburg, and his kicks will go that bit further.

If there were clues about the make-up of the Lions squad during the Six Nations, then this weekend's EDF Energy Cup semi-final double-header at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry provides rugby punters with another little snapshot of the potential make-up of the famous touring side. Currently the Lions trade at [3.1] to repeat their series win of 1997, while the world champion Springboks are a [1.41] shot. And quite right, too. If you look at the Super 14 table right now, the Sharks from Durban and the Bulls from Pretoria lead the way.

Gloucester's match-up against the Ospreys is the first game on the card, and Rory Lawson's clash with Mike Phillips at scrum-half is eagerly anticipated. Phillips has looked in need of every game that he has played during the Six Nations, while Lawson has been putting in some solid displays as he gets used to having Carlos Spencer play outside him.

It is difficult at this stage to know how many of Wales's Six Nations failures will be picked by Ospreys' coach Sean Holley, but punters should expect the full complement as all of them will be massively disappointed with their campaign and their fourth placed-finish.

At the time of writing, there were few prices up in the match betting market, but you would imagine that the Welsh franchise would start at around [1.67] for a clash with the deposed Premiership leaders on neutral turf. I have struggled to get with Gloucester for most of 2009, because I always feel that they lack killer instinct when they need it most. If you look at their record in Cup finals as well it is shocking. They have blown the Guinness final repeatedly and their record in domestic cups reads just one win in six attempts stretching back to 1990.

To be fair, since Spencer turned up in mid-February, Gloucester have looked to get points on the board a lot earlier than they used to. He has galvanised them in a way that blinkers do a lazy racehorse. Although the master of the mercurial can still put in a duff job on occasion, he has re-ignited the Gloucester backs, and they were majestic against Bath a few weeks ago when the Cherry and Whites beat their West Country rivals at Kingsholm 36-27. But if Gloucester do manage to get on top early in the match, that supremacy is unlikely to last the entire game, because they are without a win away from their Kingsholm fortress this year.

We all know that the Ospreys take this competition very seriously - they are bidding to reach Twickenham for the third successive season - and if you can get better than [1.67] you've at least got a fair bit of value.

In the 5.15pm fixture between Cardiff and Northampton, punters should bare in mind that the Blues have played just two fixtures since Jan 23. They beat Glasgow on Feb 20, and then they edged out Connacht almost three weeks ago 19-14 at the Sportsground.

Although that generally means that the players are well rested, time and again the lack of a friendly fixture for teams in this position highlights that players are not up to match speed. Cardiff could find it all a bit too much in the first half.

Northampton are fit and battle-hardened, and I would be looking to get with the Saints early in the hope that they blitz the Blues in the first 40 minutes. Northampton have got on the scoresheet early in their last three matches, which have seen them score 87 points against London Irish, an injury-ravaged Sale and Worcester.

Cardiff's overall quality may see them through at the end. But who knows? Northampton are packed with decent players such as potential Lions tourists Euan Murray, Sean Lamont and Ben Foden. Foden is trying to be the next Will Greenwood, in that he may go on the Lions tour to the Rainbow Nation before receiving a national cap, and in his current form he may once again inspire the Saints to avoid defeat against a Welsh team, something they have done on four of the five occasions they have clashed with a side from the Principality.