EDF Energy Anglo Welsh Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 21 March 2008 / Leave a comment

This weekend sees two huge matches in the Anglo Welsh competition. The Ospreys meet their fellow Heineken Cup quarter finalists Saracens in a clash that could only be overshadowed by the meeting of English rugby's titans. Geoff Riddle is the man to guide you through the prices.

Leicester [1.7] v Wasps [2.3] Draw [20.0]

Leicester and Wasps have served up some incredible matches in the past - their double-header in the Heineken Cup in 2004 was probably the best two club games ever seen - and this weekend's EDF Energy Cup semi-final in the Millennium Stadium will see both teams size each other up ahead of next weekend's Premiership clash at Welford Road.

Leicester have a ten-point advantage in the Premiership table going into this clash, but those who like to trot out the line "the table never lies," must take into account that the London side have two games in hand and had an atrocious start to the season.

It is interesting therefore to see Leicester as favourites, which, given that they have won four of
the last five meetings, is probably fair on paper. However, when you delve a little deeper, over the last few years Wasps have won the encounters that really mattered.

They demolished the Tigers 25-9 in last season's Heineken Cup final at Twickenham. They pipped them 22-17 in the 2006 Powergen Cup semi-final, which was also played in Cardiff, and a year before that they triumphed in the Premiership final.

Both sides look pretty much at full strength, and although Leicester may win the Premiership clash next weekend, when there's silverware at stake Wasps have the upper hand.

Ospreys [1.35] v Saracens [2.8] Draw [18.5]

It has been ten long years since Saracens' fans have been to a cup final, but this year the Men in Black have two bites of the cherry. Both times though, they must face up to the mighty Ospreys, a team which could comprise of no fewer than 14 of the Wales squad that swept all before them in this year's Six Nations Championship.

Like the two sides that play before them, Saracens must play their EDF Energy Cup rivals soon after this clash, this time though in a Heineken Cup quarter-final in two week's time at Vicarage Road. Some might say, therefore, that we have a 'humdinger' of a double-header over the next fortnight, but one which may produce two distinctly different ties.

Ospreys assistant coach Sean Holley, was quick to highlight earlier this week how he expects each match to pan out. "The first game will be quite open and Saracens will be interested in an open game," he said. "The second game (the Heineken Cup quarter-final) will probably be a much more cagey affair," he added.

There is no doubt that the Wales team of this year have looked to cross the tryline. They scored 148 points in this year's Championship (just three points shy of their record 2005 haul) and that hunger for points has been reflected in the Ospreys' play as well.

Lyn Jones's side have played 20 matches in the Heineken Cup and EDF Energy Cup in Wales, and they average just over 25 points per game in those fixtures. Last time out in the Heineken Cup they mauled Premiership table-toppers Gloucester 32-15 at the Liberty Stadium, and at this stage of the EDF Cup last year they thrashed Cardiff 27-10 in the Millennium.

Saracens on the other hand come into this game under a bit of a cloud. Since the start of February Alan Gaffney's side seem to have forgotten what made them such a vibrant free-scoring side earlier this season. Wins against Worcester and Sale at home are all they have to show from their last six matches.

There is an argument for saying that the Premiership club will be more cohesive, having played league matches during the Six Nations. For those who feel that the Grand Slam will have a galvanising effect on the Ospreys, consider this though: Welsh sides won less than half of the fixtures played in the remainder of the 2005 season after winning the Grand Slam (not including all-Welsh affairs).

Personally, I don't give Saracens a chance of beating the Ospreys so [1.35] looks like pretty good value for a Welsh win at the stadium where so many of the same players only just completed a famous Grand Slam victory over France, particularly in what should be a high scoring tie.

Tags: EDF Energy Cup, Leicester, Ospreys, Rugby Union Betting, Saracens, Wasps