EDF Energy Anglo Welsh Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 31 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Come on, hang in there, just one more week of this EDF Energy Cup nonsense to go and then we are on to the November internationals, says Geoffrey Riddle.

To be fair to the BBC (and let's face it, they've had a hard time this week...), the three live games in the EDF Cup this round are pretty much the best that the tournament has to offer.

Cardiff's head-to-head with Bath at The Arms Park certainly looks a decent affair. Last week, it was easy to see that the value lay with the Blues in their Anglo-Welsh clash with Leicester, but despite the fact that Martin Johnson has robbed Bath of some of their most potent weapons, things don't look so clear-cut in Cardiff this time around. Cardiff are as short as [1.36] with their visitors trading at [4.0]. In contrast, last week Cardiff touched odds-against in their match-up with the Tigers before kick-off.

Yes, Bath are under-strength, but there is motivation in their ranks as a win here takes them through to the knock-out stages in March. Coach Steve Meehan welcomes back Danny Grewcock and perma-crock Andy Beattie, and the pair should add some grunt to a pack shorn of Lee Mears, Matt Stevens, Michael Lipman and Aussie Justin Harrison.

Bath's free-flowing approach makes it difficult for Cardiff to contain them. Last week Cardiff negotiated Leicester's more direct play with a certain swagger, but this challenge is sure to be different. Bath's quick passing game, and constant look for the clean break is in a similar vein to the Blues, but where Bath also excel is in the set-pieces. They have lost the least line-outs and scrums in the Premiership this season, and if they can put pressure on the Cardiff set-piece then they could make this a tight affair, especially given that their away form this season has been sensational.

Cardiff look a classic lay-to-back proposition, although some may prefer to simply back the visitors on the handicap at odds-against on Betfair's +7.5 handicap. Be warned though, you want to get a decent price in that market because +10 is available with the regular bookmakers.

Northampton's live tussle with the Scarlets in Pool D looks winnable. Llanelli have a record of P12 L8 W4 in all competitions in England, which will hardly see the Saints quaking. Anyone trading this game, however, as well as Sunday's live clash between London Irish and Ospreys, should get to grips with the qualifying situation.

As far as Northampton are concerned, a win at Franklin's Gardens takes them through to the knockout stage, providing Saracens do not win at Bristol. Bristol have absolutely no motivation whatsoever to win that game, and things could get interesting as both matches get into the second half.

The same situation arises in Pool C. London Irish need to beat the Ospreys by four points to secure qualification, provided that Worcester don't beat Harlequins. Worcester will be looking for a bonus-point win against Dean Richards' men, a job made significantly easier by the fact that Quins cannot qualify. Bear in mind that they showed a less-than-healthy appetite for this competition last week when losing 32-17 at home to London Irish.

Elsewhere, all eyes should be trained on Australia's meaningless Bledisloe fixture against New Zealand in Hong Kong. The game does not look like the best betting heat in the world though. These two may well be the fiercest of rivals, but it may not be as intense as usual as the Bledisloe Cup remains in Kiwi hands for the sixth year in a row.

That said, this fixture forms a core part of the November international syllabus with Dan Carter moving to inside-centre to allow Waikato Chief's pivot Stephen Donald in at fly-half. Donald came on in the 51st minute in the Tri-Nations match in Brisbane when the All Blacks trailed the Wallabies 17-7. By the time he and Carter had worked their magic, New Zealand were running off with the Bledisloe Cup having won 28-24.

Anyone who wants to bet on the internationals next month had better Sky+ this glorified training exercise. New Zealand trade at [1.28] with Australia at [4.6] but neither side will be full-throttle, and this looks a match for in-running traders to get their teeth stuck into.