Super League Grand Final: Match of a lifetime

Super League / George Riley / 09 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"The great and good of the rugby league world who I've spoken to this week reckon St Helens will halt Leeds' dominance. Betfair punters think otherwise with Leeds [1.62] to seal a famous treble and Saints very much the [2.78] outsiders."

An entire season of blood, sweat, broken bones and ice baths, comes down to 80 minutes at Old Trafford on Saturday afternoon as Leeds and St Helen's battle to be the 2009 Super League Champions. George Riley selects the best bets.

This is probably the most excited I've been about a one-off match in my life.

The Grand Final is like nothing else I've experienced. The nerves, the tension, the atmosphere is just indescribable. And being asked to commentate on the Grand Final for the BBC for the first time makes it even more special for me.

I never doubted that Leeds would make it back to the Grand Final, but I'm starting to waver over whether they can become the first club to seal a hat-trick of Old Trafford wins.

Such a "three-peat" has never been achieved, and most of the great and good of the rugby league world who I've spoken to this week reckon St Helens will halt Leeds' dominance.

Betfair punters, and Rhinos fans, think otherwise. The back-to-back champions are trading around [1.62] to seal a famous treble, with Saints very much the [2.78] outsiders. The end of season form would indicate that those odds are spot on. Leeds finished with a flourish to usurp Saints at the top of Super League, winning 11 of their last 12 games, running in a massive 48 tries in their last six. Saints won just six of their last 12 fixtures and were visibly disjointed.

So why do I sense a wave of support for Mick Potter's men this week? Several reasons. The last four years in a row St Helens have collapsed under the burden of expectancy having finished as League Leaders. They turned only one of those four League Leaders' shields into Grand final trophies. The last two seasons they have bettered Leeds all season and been battered by them at Old Trafford. No matter what the players may tell you, that memory, that pain, does not go away.

Leeds prop Jamie Peacock, the England captain, agrees. He told me Old Trafford is, a "crap place to lose," and Saints will be inspired by that bitter taste. Revenge isn't a word anyone involved will use. But it's sure to be a massive factor, and Saints this year are not top dogs - it is Leeds who have to justify their position as league leaders.

If Saints can positively channel this desire to "right the wrongs" of their last two Old Trafford visits, then I can see their old heads - Sean Long, Paul Wellens, Leon Pryce and Keiron Cunningham, leading them to victory. My one worry for Saints would be whether this fierce determination to get Leeds back could see them boil over and lose their discipline. I don't expect that to happen, but Saints need to believe they can do it. If they go behind, will their heads go down?

The kicking game is likely to be key - Hull KR coach Justin Morgan told me this week that he thinks Sean Long will kick Saints to victory in his final game for the club. This is also a massive game for Kevin Sinfield. For the Rhinos to hold sway the captain has to be at the very top of his game. If Sinny's kicking goes awry, then Leeds will struggle to lay a platform for their massive pack to establish a decent field position for the twinkle toes of Danny McGuire and Rob Burrow. Lee Smith plays his last game of league for Leeds before switching codes to play union, and I'm tipping him for a big game.

Crucially, Saints are hardly conceding any points, and given the amount of tries Leeds have been running in, this could be a massive factor.

There's an extensive Grand Final market available on Betfair and I'm looking at a tight game. Despite the fervour around Saints I'm gonna stick with Leeds, and take the [3.0] on offer about the Rhinos to win by under 12.5 points.

I think this looks like an 8-point ball game either way. Leeds' thumping win last year was a one off. Saints to win by the same margin is available at [4.1]. I'd recommend looking at these markets rather than the outright win market. I can't see either side running away with it so the value is with the winning margin market.

Either side could send over a drop goal for that extra point late in the game. With both Sinfield and Long fine exponents of the art, I like the [2.28] about there being a drop goal in the game.

I'm sticking with Leeds. I have to, I'm a Leeds boy. But do not underestimate Saints' desire to hurt the Rhinos. I'll leave the last word to Rhinos stand-off Danny McGuire who calls the game, "a 50-50 call."

A packed Old Trafford will be an unbelievable spectacle as the two best teams in the Northern hemisphere go toe to toe over 80 minutes.