Super League / Editor / 14 August 2009 / Leave a comment

George Riley talks and tips us through this weekend's Super League fixtures.

"Wigan – Warrington is Friday night’s other fixture, and a repeat of last week’s semi-final that saw the Wolves stun Wigan to reach the Challenge Cup final. You’d expect Wigan to respond to that humbling, and Betfair punters do too, rating the Warriors at [1.23], with Warrington, despite beating the same opposition last weekend, trading around [6.0]. I’m going to have a bit of that. "

When you've covered the game for years you do develop a certain degree of confidence in predicting the outcome of games. What this season, and last weekend in particular has shown, is that this great sport is becoming increasingly unpredictable and therefore hugely gripping.

Having erred on the side of caution last week and gone for semi-final victories for Wigan and Saints, and a home win for Harlequins over out-of-form Bradford, all three went the way of the value underdog. My one correct tip turned out to be the one I was most unconvinced about - a first ever away win for the Catalans Dragons at Salford. It's been some season.

So it's back to the grind of Super League this weekend with games running out to secure a playoff berth. Champions Leeds host rivals Castleford at Headingley in a game that should see Leeds draw level with St Helens at the top of the table. The 7th placed Tigers have a two-point buffer in the top eight, but still need two wins to secure that spot. I can't see this being one of them, although at [1.21] the Rhinos are barely worth a look. Leeds should be unchanged, Tigers could be boosted by Brent Sherwin's return but I wouldn't expect that to be enough.

Wigan - Warrington is Friday night's other fixture, and a repeat of last week's semi-final that saw the Wolves stun Wigan to reach the Challenge Cup final. You'd expect Wigan to respond to that humbling, and Betfair punters do too, rating the Warriors at [1.23], with Warrington, despite beating the same opposition last weekend, trading around [6.0]. I'm going to have a bit of that. Yes I'd expect a fierce Wigan response in front of their home crowd but don't forget Warrington have a playoff place at stake, sitting eighth in the race to finish in the top eight. The Wolves are battered and bruised from that game and have concerns over Matt King, Jon Clarke, Chris Hicks, Garreth Carvell and Ben Harrison. So Wigan look like the call, but I'm floating a fiver on the value visitors.

The [1.25] Catalan Dragons will continue their playoff push with victory over Hull FC in Perpignan on Saturday. Only points difference separates the tenth place Dragons with Warrington in eighth, and they will fancy this weekend as a turning point to strengthen their top-eight aspirations.

Harlequins versus Salford represents a must-win fixture for Quins at the Stoop if they are to make the playoffs. Last weekend was a horror show for Brian McDermott's side who were conceding a point a minute to the previously out of sorts Bradford Bulls in the first half. I expect a big response from Mac's men and at [1.29] it has to be Quins. Salford are handy, and at [4.3] tempting, but with Luke Dorn, Rob Purdham and Luke Gale starting to click off the bench I can't see past a home win.

Huddersfield will find a much tougher Bulls side arriving at the Galpharm on Sunday, and buoyed by booking their date at Wembley, some may predict a Giants slip up this weekend. I was hugely impressed by the improvement in Steve McNamara's [3.37] Bulls at the Stoop last weekend, and this will be close. Huddersfield though have become so tough to beat and proved in knocking out St Helens last weekend that Nathan Brown has turned them into one of the best sides in the competition.

Wakefield-Celtic Crusaders only has one winner. The Welsh side trade around [10.0] to spring a shock at John Kear's playoff chasers. While St Helens' trip to Hull KR represents a real potential banana skin for the League leaders. A couple of colleagues in the rugby league media reckon Rovers can win this - if they did that would leave Saints level with Leeds - providing the Rhinos beat Cas, with Leeds and St Helens till to play in the last two games. So this is a massive fixture for St Helens. They will really be hurting after seeing their hopes of a fourth successive Challenge Cup win ended by Huddersfield, and they will go all guns blazing now to secure top spot, and home advantage in the playoffs. I disagree with my colleagues - Saints will have too much at [1.55], and to be honest I quite like those odds.

My three tips this weekend are Saints at [1.55], Harlequins at [1.29] and I'm taking a punt on Warrington again at [6.0].