Super League / George Riley / 04 September 2009 / Leave a comment

The regular season is approaching end game and the penultimate round of matches looks to be a belter. George Riley selects the best bets - starting with tonight's top of the table cross-Pennine crunch...

"My three tips for this weekend are: Leeds at [1.52] to secure top spot in Super League. A Warrington surprise at [3.25] and the Dragons to tame the Wildcats at [1.4]."

Friday night's top-of-the-table Leeds versus St Helens showdown should tell us just where the balance of power and momentum lies heading into the play-offs.

Rewind a couple of months and Saints were flying towards top spot, with a four point lead and better points difference, while the Rhinos wobbled. Leeds have now hit their straps at just the right time, and, having accumulated a superior points difference, will all but secure top spot with victory at Headingley.

Saints' stumble has been remarkable, with shock defeats to Salford, Wakefield and Hull KR scarcely masked by narrow, unconvincing wins over Wigan and Huddersfield. In short, the dominant St Helens side of the early part of the season has gone, and the televised clash at Leeds should tell us whether this is a temporary pre-play-off blip, or a more deep-rooted problem heading into the end-of-season knockout.

My sources at Saints tell me that coach Mick Potter may have lost the confidence of some of his senior players. Potter is a quiet man and this seems to have led to an icy rapport with some players. I also understand he has baffled some with his team selections, with Paul Wellens - one of the world's top full-backs - set to be used as a centre at Leeds, with Leon Pryce moved from his influential half-back role, to cover at full-back.

That said, if it works, Potter take a bow. Injury to Jon Wilkin will hit saints hard. Wilko tells me he needs an operation on floating knee cartilage but Potter wants him to wait until the end of the season. That would scupper his England 4Nations hopes and is unlikely to be welcome by national coach Tony Smith. I still expect saints to turn up strong at Leeds, with Kyle Eastmond sure to sparkle. 3.15 is hugely appealing for Saints on the face of it - two sides level on points, means a tight contest is expected, but Betfair punters disagree with Leeds trading around [1.52].

But I still fancy my home town to come through. I don't agree with the value differential but I'm still not willing to back Saints, and I believe this will be the night that Sinfield, Burrow and co seal top spot heading into the play-offs.

The other fixtures in the penultimate round centre on the tussle for play-off places. Continued uncertainty over the future of coach Brian Noble (linked this week to the Celtic Crusaders), shouldn't prevent a routine Wigan home win at [1.2] over the [5.9] Hull FC. Wigan are one of those sides who always hit the board running into the play-offs.

Hull KR against Challenge Cup winners Warrington is the big one on Saturday. The way the Wolves won at Wembley was outstanding, and it highlights how bad they were before Tony Smith took over, in that they are struggling even to make the play-off top eight. This is simply a must-win against a Rovers side eyeing a third-place finish.

Tough to call, but knowing what a disciplinarian Smith is there won't have been too much Warrington partying this week. If Lee Briers, Michael Monaghan and Chris Riley can reproduce their Cup final displays for the run-in then I fancy Warrington to sneak in and be a play-off danger. I like Warrington to spring an away upset at [3.25], although that price will show you Betfair punters, and indeed a lot of my fellow journalists disagree. There may well be a Cup-final hangover but I'm going to cut loose and predict that Wolves can prevail.

Huddersfield should bounce back from their Wembley heartache to beat Celtic Crusaders at [1.04], but again the post-Cup final blues mean this is probably a game worth steering clear of given that the Giants are largely unbackable.

Catalans v Wakefield is sixth against seventh with Wakefield having already cemented their play-off place. The Dragons need a win and should get it at 1.4. Wakefield this week signed centre Daryl Millard from Canterbury Bulldogs to replace Ryan Atkins. Back Atkins to be confirmed in the next week or so as a Warrington player for next season.

I'll be at Harlequins final home game of the season on Sunday, and very much last-chance saloon for Quins to make the top eight after a horrible month of results. Castleford need the result for their play-off hopes too so I'm hoping this will be a bruiser. Cas currently occupy the final play-off place by two points from Quins and Warrington, so a win would end Quins hopes. I have no idea how to call this one so lets look at the markets. Quins trade at [1.84], with [2.0] about the Tigers. I'll go for an away win.

Bradford should be too strong for Salford to see out the weekend. My three tips are Leeds at [1.52] to secure top spot in Super League. Then I'll take a punt on a Warrington surprise at [3.25] and tip the Dragons to tame the Wildcats at [1.4].

Happy punting.

Tags: Catalan Dragons, Celtic Crusaders, George Riley, Leeds Rhinos, Leon Pryce, Rugby League Super League Betting, St Helens, Warrington Wolves