Super League / George Riley / 14 May 2009 / Leave a comment

George Riley talks us through the best betting from the weekend fixtures as things start to really hot up in the race for the play-offs.

With just four points separating Super League's top eight, this weekend's fixtures look like further shaking up the race for playoff places.

At the midway point of the season, rank outsiders Hull KR lie just a point off St Helens, in second place, and above the champions Leeds.

Several sides had a breather last week having been knocked out of the Challenge Cup and that may have been a frustration for Leeds ahead of Friday night's derby at Castleford. Cas will fancy this at [4.6] with Betfair punters, and that does look far more tempting than the hot and cold Rhinos who trade at [1.2]. Leeds reckoned their Magic weekend win over the Catalans Dragons a fortnight ago served as the end to their dreadful run of form, so they could have well done without a weekend off.

Danny McGuire is back in the mix for Leeds but I understand the club are very, very worried about the England stand-off's shin splints. Coach Brian McLennan must decide whether to throw Danny back in or wrap him in cotton wool on the bench again as he did at Murrayfield. As a Leeds boy I would like to think the Rhinos mid-season improvement will continue with a hardfought win, but given the value I'm going to float a cheeky fiver on the Tigers grinding out a shock win in front of their hostile Jungle crowd.

Friday's other fixture sees Justin Morgan's high-flying Hull KR go to Wigan as underdogs. The Warriors are on a roll having beaten St Helens in their last Super League fixture, and backed that up by winning at Wakefield last weekend in the Cup. As such they are trading at [1.4], with in-form Rovers [2.7]. Morgan boldly told me at the start of the season that his target was to win the competition.

I struggled not to laugh but the table doesn't lie and to be just a point off pacesetters St Helens is an awesome effort. Brian Noble looks to be sorting out some of Wigan's wobbles but bizarrely sees fit to continue to leave out of the squad the Super League's top try scorer in Shaun Ainscough. This is a fixture that looks an even bet. You would expect Wigan to win on home soil, yet Rovers continue to surprise away from home so their value may tempt you. This is not a certainty either way.

A Rovers win would see them top of Super League for 24 hours, the first time they would have ever occupied the summit. St Helens are in the south of France against the unpredictable Dragons on Saturday evening and I expect them to win in the sunshine at [1.25]. This is the second week on the spin that these two meet, with Saints having walloped the Catalans in the Cup last weekend, and I can't see a different story, even with the Dragons at home. Saints this week announced the signing of 22-year-old New Zealand international Sia Soliola on a three-year contract from 2010 and that will give the players a lift.

Hull FC play Warrington with the home side valued at [1.8] with Betfair punters to win the fixture and [2.16] about the visitors. It's 7th versus 11th and Tony Smith has struggled somewhat to lift the Wolves since his arrival at the troubled side. I fancy the home side in this one, with Richard Agar keen to rediscover the winning touch that gave his side such a flying start to the season. I was really impressed with Hull at the Magic weekend, with a thumping win over Castleford, and I think they will maintain that form to wound Warrington.

Three games on Sunday, and I'll be off to the Stoop to watch Harlequins play Wakefield. Wakey are in a bit of a slump, they were dreadful in defeat to Bradford at Murrayfield, and saw their Cup run ended at home to Wigan last weekend. Confidence will be a bit low, and London is not a nice away trip when that is the case. The Wildcats don't have a great record in the capital either and are [2.2] with Betfair to grab the win. This is 5th versus 6th, with the two sides level on points, and could prove a key fixture in determining the jostle for playoff positions - even this early in the season. Quins are in a decent run of form and would appear the wise call, but the Wildcats do have enough to make it a 50/50 call.

Celtic Crusaders search for a first win continues at Bradford, but the Bulls will batter them at around [1.2]. Bradford are coming good after an awful start and you can [lay this fixture with confidence.

Huddersfield and Salford complete the round, and I fancy the Giants at home. So do Betfair punters, rating the Giants as a very short odds-on chance with Salford the underdogs at [3.6] or even bigger. I think that value differential is ridiculous. It will be far closer than that, with the Reds having uncovered some real young flair in Richie Myler and Stefan Ratchford. They can run this one close and although Huddersfield should win, the nature of the competition this year shows that if you fancy being bold then backing the value visitors should keep things interesting.