Super League Betting: England call-ups shake up the domestic competition

Super League / George Riley / 11 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

As England travel to France to face a depleted side, George Riley looks at the consequences of these call-ups on the Super League as he goes looking for the betting value.

The best homegrown players will be missing from this weekend's round of Super League as Tony Smith's new-look England head to Paris to play a hugely under-strength France.

France are trading at a hefty [17.0] with Betfair customers to win on their own patch against an England side yet to really play together as a unit. That may prove appealing value for the punter who remembers how woefully out of sorts England were last time they played on foreign soil, but Smith has done a lot of soul-searching since the World Cup.

The French will struggle to match England's enthusiasm, energy and vigour, without seven regulars including Dimitri Pelo, Jamal Fakir, David Ferriol and Olivier Elima. A full-strength France would give this youthful England side a real game, but I can't see whatever side coach Bobby Goulding puts out being capable of making much of an impact on the young Lions. Joe Westerman, Scotty Moore, Ryan Hall and Sam Tompkins could all make their debuts, but I expect experienced heads Jamie Peacock and Adrian Morley to bring England home at [1.02]. Don't expect a walloping though - those odds do look far too short for me.

In the internationals' absence, Super League continues with St Helens versus Castleford and Hull KR v Harlequins on Friday. I'm heading to Knowsley Road this week for what I expected to be a really fierce contest, but given their absentees I can't see the Tigers taming Saints. In fact I fear for Terry Matterson's side. With Westerman and Michael Shenton on England duty, and without key injured pair Brent Sherwin and skipper Ryan Hudson, The Cas squad is stretched to the absolute limit.

Last weekend's home defeat by resurgent Warrington hurt the Tigers pride, and there are call ups for 17-year-old Jordan Thompson and 21-year-old Ryan Boyle. Cas trade at around [10.0] and for that to be even remotely tempting then Rangi Chase has to have a massive game in the halfbacks. Even if he does, I can see Saints walking this at [1.07], the home side benefiting from the lack of England calls for Jon Wilkin, Paul Wellens, Leon Pryce and of course the now internationally retired Sean Long.

Hull KR-Quins looks a belter as Friday night's TV game. As predicted on this column, one of the top three were going to slip up last week. As it happened there were two shocks, with both Rovers and Leeds losing, so well done if you backed that at the great value that was on offer on Betfair.

I'd expect KR to bounce back this weekend at [1.51] on their home patch, but will they be as potent an attacking threat without the pace and guile of England pair Peter Fox and Shaun Briscoe? If you fancy they may suffer in their absence, you can back Quins at around the [2.7] mark. Only Tony Clubb of Quins got the England call when several others may have expected it. Rob Purdham and Louis McCarthy-Scarsbrook should both be in, so I'm going to go with the Quins' value and float this week's fiver on them at [2.7].

Wigan should win at Celtic Crusaders at [1.12] on Saturday, although without the injured Sean O'Loughlin punters may like the [4.1] about the Welsh side to record only their second win.
Wakefield-Hull looks a good fixture too. Top try-scorer Ryan Atkins is on England duty and the Wildcats will miss him. Wakey lost at Bradford last week while Hull were humiliated at home by Saints so this could be tight with neither wanting a repeat. [1.74] on Wakefield surprises me and strikes me as too short in what looks a 50/50 call. Hull trade around [2.2] in what looks to be the value call.

I'm expecting home wins in both of the weekend's remaining fixture as Leeds look to bounce back from last weekend's shock slip up in France, against a Huddersfield side bouncing after beating Hull KR. I expect this to be far tighter than the trading on Betfair suggests, with the Rhinos a little out of sorts. I expect a Leeds win but [1.33] doesn't tempt me, with the Giants at [3.6]. Leeds have three men - Peacock, Danny McGuire and Ryan Hall away with England and that will hurt them. Rob Burrow should be fit to return in McGuire's place, while youngsters Kallum Watkins and Ashley Gibson look the call to replace leading try-scorer Hall on the wing. The Giants can run this really close but I'm not convinced they can win at Headingley.

Warrington are now flying under Tony Smith, but will be without their coach as he guides England. I still expect James Lowes to oversee a [1.34] home win over his former club Bradford though, with the [2.72] Bulls likely to struggle without Sam Burgess.