Super League / George Riley / 18 September 2009 / Leave a comment

So here we go. A bruising season of Super League comes down to a controversial eight-team knockout, with winner taking all at Old Trafford next month. George Riley selects the best bets from this weekend's play-offs.

Week One Play-off Tips:

Leeds @ [1.22];
St Helens @ [1.4];
Wakefield @ [1.61]
Wigan @ [1.38]

St Helens and England forward Jon Wilkin this week accused the RFL of rewarding mediocrity by increasing from six to eight the number of teams to qualify for the play-offs.

Now, I'm quite used to listening to Wilko spout off and normally I don't bat an eyelid. But I'm completely with him on this one. If it's not broken, why fix it? Teams finishing below half-way can now go on and be crowned Super League champions.

As it is, that shouldn't happen. The odds are heavily with the top two - Leeds and Saints, reaching that Old Trafford showpiece. Although Saints' end of season wobble has left the door wide open for an outsider, with Huddersfield Giants and Hull KR my outside tips to break up the big two's stranglehold.

Leeds and St Helens have contested the last two Grand Finals, the Rhinos holding sway on both occasions to set up this month's bid for a rare hat-trick.

First up in the new play-off system is Leeds against Hull KR at Headingley in Friday night's TV game. The winners go straight through to the penultimate round of games. The losers get one last chance next week. Leeds are [1.23] with Betfair punters to reach week three with victory over Rovers, who trade at [6.0].

Justin Morgan has built an extremely efficient Robins side, well capable of beating any side in Super League, as has been shown throughout the course of the season. Michael Dobson, Clint Newton, Shaun Briscoe and Peter Fox have been outstanding and Leeds will be on their guard. I expect this to be a huge test for the champions, but with captain Kevin Sinfield back from injury, and Keith Senior and Jamie Jones-Buchanan back from injury, it is a test I expect the Rhinos to come through.

Victory would not only see Leeds through to the penultimate round of play-off games, but in another RFL initiative it would allow them to choose their opposition in that final qualifier.

Saturday evening sees second-place St Helens try and salvage their season at home to third-placed Huddersfield in the other qualifying play-off, with the route to the final the same as per the Leeds-Hull KR game.

Saints were the best team in the League by a mile over the first half of the season. They have recently looked a shambles, losing four of their last five games, and I understand there has been real unrest behind the scenes. Coach Mick Potter needs a performance against the Giants to get the doubters back on side.

Again I go for a home win here, but this game could be the one that punters view as a banana skin. One of those recent Saints defeats was against Huddersfield in the Cup semis, and they only just beat a make-shift Giants reserve side at home in Super League. This could either be another dodgy night for St Helens, or more likely in my eyes, a timely return to form at [1.41]. The Giants are trading around 3.9. Two of the three Man Of Steel contenders go head to head in this one. Huddersfield's diminutive Aussie full-back Brett Hodgson would be my call for the award, and he goes up against reigning player of the year James Graham.

The remaining two games are both do-or-die elimination play-offs. Wakefield host Catalans Dragons on Saturday, Castleford go to Wigan on Sunday, with the losers' seasons ending immediately, and the winners heading into week two to face the losers of the week one games.

These two ties are really tight to call. The Wildcats have the kind of siege mentality that I think will get them through, despite the Dragons finding some remarkable end of season form to secure their play-off berth, including a shock victory at Saints last week. In Clint Greenshields, Dmitri Pelo and Casey McGuire, the Perpignan side have the flair to undo any defence. Players such as Ryan Atkins will be making their farewell Wakefield appearances unless they can extend their season. It is so tight to call it may come down to the hostile Bellevue crowd to edge the Wildcats through at [1.63], although [2.64] about the Dragons does whet my whistle.

I'm going to take Wigan over Castleford to secure a clean sweep of home wins. The Tigers were terrific at a horrible Harlequins side two weeks ago, and maintained that free-scoring form in running in another seven tries against Celtic Crusaders. Halfback Rangi Chase has for me been one of the unsung stars of their Super League season and if he brings his twinkletoes, then the Tigers can pull off a [3.6] shock.

Brian Noble will bow out as Wigan coach at the end of this season, with the wise money on a move to Crusaders. I can't see Nobby going out with a whimper, and back Wigan to edge the arm-wrestle at [1.38].

My week one playoff tips are Leeds, St Helens, Wakefield, and Wigan, although I perhaps don't have enough confidence in the last two to put on a four-game multiple!

Tags: George Riley, Huddersfield Giants, Leeds Rhinos, Rugby League betting, St Helens, Super League Betting, Super League play-ofs, Wigan Warriors