Rugby League Challenge Cup Betting: Wigan can keep the Wolves at the door

Super League / George Riley / 07 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"This really is a toss of the coin call and usually in that instance I would go with the underdog, especially given I know their coach pretty well. But I’m going to go against my usual wisdom here as I really like the way Wigan have been playing. Only a last minute try by Kyle Eastmond last week denied Wigan a sixth successive victory, while Wigan were also on the wrong-end of last-second heartache, losing at Smith’s former club Leeds to the last kick off the game."

George Riley talks us through the best bets from Challenge Cup semi-final weekend and looks at what else is going on this weekend in the world of Super League rugby.

Challenge Cup semi final weekend is rarely anything but absolutely thrilling and from speaking to several of the players involved this week I know everyone is buzzing.

Wigan are the tournament's most successful team, with 17 Cup triumphs in the club's proud history. They come up against a Warrington side on Saturday coached by a man for whom the Challenge Cup is an elusive prize.

Tony Smith was the 2005 coach of the year having guided Leeds to the Challenge Cup final and Grand Final, before losing them both. That defeat in the final to Hull FC was a big upset, and remains the closest Smith has ever got to winning the sport's most coveted Cup prize.

I spoke to Tony Smith this week and he's well up for this. He played the usual "it's not about me, it's about the team" line and he is right. But I do know how much he wants to complete the full set of honours in the British game.

Wigan are trading at [1.83] with Betfair punters, with the Wolves a [2.28 bet]. Wigan will be boosted by the return of their captain Sean o'Loughlin after a four-week injury lay-off, and Phil Bailey should be fit too. Warrington's former Wigan winger Brian Carney is out with a broken arm but I know he has been offering plenty advice to his team-mates on how to topple the Warriors.

This really is a toss of the coin call and usually in that instance I would go with the underdog, especially given I know their coach pretty well. But I'm going to go against my usual wisdom here as I really like the way Wigan have been playing. Only a last minute try by Kyle Eastmond last week denied Wigan a sixth successive victory, while Wigan were also on the wrong-end of last-second heartache, losing at Smith's former club Leeds to the last kick off the game. Smith tells me that won't affect their momentum and was in fact the best they have played all season. If the Wolves can reproduce that effort against Wigan then Saturday's TV game will be an absolute belter but I still fancy Wigan, just.

On paper Sunday's semi looks an easier call as St Helens play Huddersfield, but I'm not convinced it will be. Saints have owned this competition in recent years, winning the last three on the spin. The Super League leaders trade at an understandable [1.38] with the Giants [3.85]. This is certainly a game Huddersfield are capable of winning, but for that to happen they must produce their best display of the season and hope Saints have an off day. There is no reason to doubt the Giants' capabilities, having won their last six games in a row, and are clearly revitalised under Aussie coach Nathan Brown. Saints give late fitness tests to Sean Long, Keiron Cunningham and James Roby and if all three miss out then I'd be tempted to back an upset. Kyle Eastmond though has been in sparkling form in Long's absence, and the 20-year-old half-back is himself a match-winner. I wouldn't completely rule out an upset here but Saints should just shade it in the end and I've seen worse 1.38 shots than this.

There are two leftover Super League fixtures to be played this weekend, as I go to the Stoop to watch Harlequins play Bradford. Bizarrely the sides also met last week at Odsal, and Quins won it 22-14. I'd expect a repeat performance with Quins battling for a playoff place and getting their injured bodies fit again, while the Bulls[' dismal season is just fizzling out.

Salford and the Catalans Dragons contest the final fixture of the weekend, with both sides in need of a lift. I've tried several times to back Salford this season and am rarely successful. They beat the likes of St Helens and Leeds yet manage to lose to everyone else. On the face of it the Dragons should come through at [1.46], but is worth bearing in mind the French side have never won at the Willows.

My three selections this weekend are Wigan, St Helens and Harlequins.