Rugby League Betting: Noble on the brink of big bother?

Super League / George Riley / 19 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Celtic Crusaders have shown enough spirit in their opening defeats to give their fans hope that they can survive in Super League so George Riley is off to South Wales to see if they can start turning their new ground into a fortress with a win against Hull FC. Meanwhile, Wigan aim to get their season on track against Cas and an emotional occasion looms at Bellevue.

So after a successful opening weekend, I moved on to tip Leeds and St Helens to flex their muscles in round one proper, and went for surprise away wins at The Willows and The Jungle. Well, three out of four isn't bad!

Leeds again showed their formidable squad depth with a hard-fought win over a very real Wakefield banana skin. St Helens survived an early-season wobble to justify my faith, overturning a 14-0 deficit to preserve their terrific unbeaten home run against Warrington. I slipped up at the Willows where Salford started the season with an impressive dismantling of fellow new-boys Celtic Crusaders, but Harlequins carved out a fine win away at a much-improved Castleford to ensure it was another decent weekend.

I'm jumping on a train to Bridgend on Saturday to see if Crusaders' first ever Super League game at Brewery Field can yield a victory. Hull FC are the visitors having opened their season with a home win over a winless Wigan side upon which the pressure is already starting to mount.

Crusaders have already shown enough spirit in their opening two defeats to give their fans hope that they can compete at this level. If they are, they have to make Brewery Field one of those horrible, hostile, unwelcoming grounds to which the big boys hate to travel. As will be the case most weeks this season, Crusaders at [2.5] provide the value, with Hull short odds [1.25].

Scoring three tries in defeat at Salford shows the Crusaders will go for it, with two-try Aussie full-back Tony Duggan always a threat, 100 tries in 85 games in England is a terrific record. Hull are expected to run away with this fixture, and if they score early that could well happen. But I think the home side can make it really tough, and it wouldn't shock me if they secured a first ever Super League win.

The action starts on Friday with champions Leeds [1.41] facing another banana skin at a Hull KR [3.0] side revitalised by coach Justin Morgan. Craven Park proved an unhappy hunting ground for several fancied teams last season, and last weekend's 13-13 draw at Bradford shows Rovers can compete with the best this season. As tempting as the Betfair odds are on a Rovers win at a ground they hope to make a fortress in Super League XIV, I can't see anything other than a third win on the spin for the Rhinos.

Leeds have won two out of two with a host of star names missing. England scrum-half Rob Burrow is still out and flamboyant Kiwi Ali Lauititi misses the trip, but captain Kevin Sinfield and centre Keith Senior are both fit allowing Leeds to add two more internationals to a team that should not slip up on Humberside.

Friday's other fixture is of monumental importance to Wigan. I've backed the Warriors to make the top four this season and although they always finish the year with a flourish, their start has been woeful. A home defeat by Wakefield and defeat at Hull last week already gives this home game with Castleford (2.8) the look of a must-win fixture.

The Tigers have built a great squad over the close season and will be smarting from last weekend's home humbling by Harlequins. Wigan's passionate home support won't tolerate another slip up, and they should scrape past the tenacious Tigers at [1.28]. Wigan, though, will miss Cameron Phelps and with Richie Mathers still suspended, rugby union flop Karl Pryce could get a rare outing. Cas will really fancy this and a Tigers win would not surprise me. But Wigan never start the season with three successive defeats, if they do then coach Brian Noble is in big bother.

The other Saturday game is Warrington - devastated to see a winning lead slip at Saints - against a Catalan Dragons side dealt a shock home lesson by a vibrant Huddersfield. The Giants played some terrific stuff in the South of France and the Dragons won't have expected to have been hit so hard.

So the Wolves-Dragons fixture looks like being an absolute bruiser, with two massive packs going toe to toe in search of their first wins of the year. This is another tough one to call, indeed the entire weekend's fixture list has banana skin written all over it. But I'll go with effervescent hooker Mickey Higham to lead Warrington to victory at [1.2].

Just the two games on Sunday, with Harlequins having a week off Super League to give Manly a warm-up game ahead of the World Club Challenge with Leeds.

Fresh from their wonderful win in Perpignan, Huddersfield (2.13) start their home campaign against St Helens (1.33) at the Galpharm. This could be yet another upset with Saints stuttering to that Warrington win, while the Giants have hit their straps already. I still edge to Saints though, especially with giant prop Eorl Crabtree out for Huddersfield.

Wakefield and Salford meet at Bellevue in the Wildcats first home game in Super League since the shock death of Adam Watene. It will be another emotional occasion for a wafer-thin Wakefield (1.25) against the City Reds (2.2) who are one win out of one on their return to rugby league's top tier. I go with the Wildcats passion to overpower the Salford spirit.