Rugby League / George Riley / 21 August 2009 / Leave a comment

St Helens' vice-like grip on top spot has become increasingly fragile as Super League reaches its business end, writes George Riley. But where can punters find the value weekend...

Recommended Bets:
Back Hull KR at [1.34];
Back Warrington at [1.44];
Back Wigan at [1.55].

From a position of real dominance, only points difference now separates Mick Potter's side from champions Leeds who have toppled Saints in each of the last two Grand Finals.

As such, Friday night's TV date with Challenge Cup finalists Huddersfield is massive. The Giants stunned Saints in that Challenge Cup semi-final, and a repeat performance would deliver a hammer blow to their hopes of topping the regular season table.

That this fixture comes just eight days before Huddersfield's Wembley final against Warrington will undoubtedly work in Saints' favour. On the face of it [1.04] on Saints to beat a team they've just lost to looks ridiculous, but it isn't. In all honesty Huddersfield's minds will be on Wembley and indeed 10 members of their semi-final team will be absent.

It will be a youthful Giants side including teenager Elliot Hodgson, while Saints welcome back two old pros in Keiron Cunningham and this looks like it could be a crushing home win.

A Huddersfield defeat will allow Justin Morgan's Hull KR to regain third spot if they can turn over Salford at the Willows. The City Reds are really hit and miss but Rovers again look the call at [1.34]. Morgan's again reiterated his claim that Rovers can win Super League, and they can't aspire to that by losing games like this. Richie Myler is back for Salford but I expect the Robins to be too strong.

Across town, Hull FC are having an awful time. Having enjoyed their best ever start to a Super League season, Richard Agar's side are now in freefall, and serious injuries to key men Shaun Berrigan and Kirk Yeaman mean that slump is unlikely to be reversed before next season. I'm looking forward to seeing a debut from giant Kiwi Ephalahame while Danny Washbrook's return bolsters the Airlie Birds' attacking options but I'm not massively tempted at [1.65].

Quins are enduring a dreadful run and have slipped out of the top eight, but I think the return of playmaker Danny Orr can trigger a response on Humberside, at [2.76]. If they lose this, Quins can forget the play-offs.

Warrington v Wakefield is Friday night's fourth tie, and again you wonder how many pairs of Wolves eyes will be on their Wembley rendezvous with the Giants next weekend. It was an under-strength Warrington side who lost at Wigan last week and there will again be absentees in Chris Hicks, Matt King, Mickey Higham and Ben Harrison.

Betfair punters rate Warrington around [1.44] to win and they should edge it, but given that Cup final date, and Wakefield's own tussle for a play-off place, [3.55] about the Wildcats may appeal. The suspension of inspirational half-back Danny Brough is massive for Wakefield though, and I'm not convinced they can win this, even given Warrington's preoccupations, in his absence.

Leeds will see Saturday's Bridgend date with the Celtic Crusaders as a chance to rack up some points difference in the race for top spot against St Helens, especially given half a dozen Crusaders' are being sent packing by the RFL for Visa irregularities. You would expect them to do so at [1.03], but clearly that kind of value is of little appeal. You could probably look instead to lay this, but I'd be wary of the Crusaders' surprise efforts in losing only 4-0 at home to St Helens, and beating both Bradford and Wigan this season.

Sunday's two games could prove the two ties of the weekend. Bradford host a Catalans Dragons side who have breathed new life into their unlikely play-off hopes in recent weeks. The Dragons charge has seen them up to seventh while the Bulls' miserable early season form means their current upturn will count for nothing more than pride. Looks too close to call this one, Bulls trade at [1.5], the Dragons [3.0].

The Castleford v Wigan contest could be equally as tight at the Jungle. The Tigers currently trade around [2.8] with [1.55] about Wigan. Castleford occupy that final play-off place and really need a win to keep that push going, while Brian Noble's Wigan can only really finish lower that the fifth place they currently enjoy. This is a fixture I would stay away from, but having been at The Jungle on days like this I would suggest the home crowd can win it for their team if they turn up in the right mood, although a Wigan defeat would be a shock.

There could be a few value away winners this week. Saints and Leeds will both win but both are unbackabale. So my tips are Hull KR at [1.34], Warrington at [1.44], and Wigan at [1.55].

Tags: George Riley, Huddersfield Giants, Hull FC, Leeds Rhinos, Super league betting, Warrington Wolves, Wigan Warriors