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Rugby League Challenge Cup Final: Hull look for huge performance as St Helens tread fine line between focus and arrogance

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You need to be neither a rugby league expert nor a betting guru to determine that this year's Challenge Cup Final has, in all likelihood, only one winner, says George Riley.

All-conquering St Helens are in untouchable form, having won 20 straight games as they seek a third successive Challenge Cup success, whereas Hull won their first game in four last weekend.

Hull have had an awful season, next to bottom in Super League, coach Peter Sharp sacked, and despite a recent revival under Richard Agar, if this Wembley showpiece goes to anything like form, Saints will walk it.

The outright match betting market on Betfair is not advisable - of far more value are the total points and win margin markets. If Saints hit their straps, then expect over 9.5 tries to be run in at [1.51] on Betfair. The win market sees Saints at [1.58] to win by over 12.5 points.

However, despite winning back to back Challenge Cups St Helens have started slowly in both - conceding an early try to Huddersfield at Twickenham two years ago before bouncing back for a thumping win. And being put under real pressure by the Catalans Dragons last year at Wembley before prevailing with equal ease.

I expect Hull to explode out of the blocks and try and rattle the favourites early. Therefore shrewd punters may look at Hull FC to score the game's first try - that can be backed at [2.74], while if Richard Agar's side can maintain that pressure up to the interval, then a HT/FT bet of Hull to be leading after 40 minutes and Saints to lift the trophy, looks excellent value at [9.0] on Betfair. I know Richard well and having chatted to him this week there is no way his players are not fired up for this one - an excellent opportunity to rescue a dismal year.

Hull's physical start could keep the game tight for the opening quarter. The first try to come in 11-20 minutes is available to back at [3.35], or [5.5] if you fancy the whitewash will be breached for the first time between 21 and 30 minutes.

I then expect it to open up and St Helens will use the full width of the spacious Wembley pitch. With Super League's top tryscorer Ade Gardner on the wing, Daniel Anderson's side could run in a hatful.

It is worth noting that despite lifting this trophy three years ago by beating the overwhelming favourites Leeds in Cardiff, Hull FC have never won the Challenge Cup at Wembley. Not a great omen against a Saints side so at home at the venue that they decided to shun the traditional Friday walkabout on the pitch. Whether that will upset the neutrals remains to be seen - it is a fine line between focus and arrogance.

Hull's chances could well be affected by the fitness of St Helens forward Maurie Fa'asavalu. The Great Britain forward is the most dangerous impact player in the Saints ranks and if he fails a fitness test on a troublesome hamstring, Hull will be buoyed. I spoke to Anderson this week and he didn't sound hugely confident of Maurie's fitness and would be loathe to risk losing him for the Super League run-in.

That said St Helens have an abundance of match winners. Sean Long is in arguably the form of his life following his international retirement, and it would be a brave punter to back against the scrum-half winning a record fourth Lance Todd man-of-the-match trophy in the last 8 season.

Long is [6.0] to be the game's standout performer, but the value would lie in Saints outstanding centre Matt Gidley (21.0) and the superb impact hooker James Roby (15.0) - the current Man of Steel.

Hull will be without Motu Tony - who sparkled in their 2005 triumph, and in all-likelihood Great Britain playmaker Richard Horne, who is still short of fitness after a neck injury.

A Hull victory is possible, but it will take a huge 80 minutes from Agar's side, it would require a magnificent defensive effort, and it would have to be a very tight, cagey game won by a single score. Hull will never outscore Saints in an open game, and depending on how early St Helens find their form - and they will - the outcome could be just as convincing as each of St Helens' last two triumphs.