Rugby League Betting: Noble has that Grand Final feeling again

Rugby League / George Riley / 25 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Thirteen points separated second-placed Leeds and fourth-placed Wigan in the final standings, but with Wigan sparkling at the business end of the season, and the Rhinos wobbling and wilting, Friday night's eliminator could be a classic, says George Riley.

After being stunned at St Helens, champions Leeds go into Super League's final eliminator with Wigan at Headingley as pretty unconvincing favourites.

For the opening third of the season, champions Leeds looked absolutely untouchable. With "Superman" full-back Brent Webb running riot, lightning winger Scott Donald running in tries at will, and monster props Jamie Peacock and Jamie Jones Buchanan dominating, the Rhinos seemed invincible.

But as Leeds faltered in the run-in - a wobble ruthlessly exposed by title favourites St Helens in last weekend's 38-10 romp at Knowsley Road, the Wigan engine has started to purr. A powerful victory over pre-match favourites Catalan Dragons in Perpignan (albeit one tipped in this column), served notice that coach Brian Noble has that Grand Final feeling again.

And no ground gets Noble's play-off juices flowing better than Headingley. The former Bradford coach just loves getting one over the old enemy, and Wigan's match price of [3.75] on Betfair appears exceptional.

Leeds (1.37) have had seven days to physically and mentally pick themselves up from that St Helens mauling, while the Warriors are buzzing having already won two play-off games. The momentum is with the visitors, (Wigan first try [2.5]), while Leeds will have to match Wigan's power up front from the start. A Wigan penalty to be the game's first score at [7.0] on Betfair would be shrewd, given Leeds opt to run the ball, and the Warriors will look to gain every advantage early to silence the boisterous Southstand - albeit a Southstand whose capacity will be halved due to safety concerns - another factor that will play into Wigan's hands given their expected huge following from over the Pennines.

With all these question marks placed over the home side, it is worth remembering that Leeds are favourites, they have a point to prove, the Rhinos have two star men playing their last games at Headingley, and the omens are very much with the home side.

Outstanding backrower Gareth Ellis bids farewell to the Southstand before chancing his arm in the NRL, while Nick Scruton departs for rivals Bradford. Neither will want to go out with a wimper. Both will want a Grand Final.

So to those omens: Leeds won the Grand Final last year after dominating Wigan 36-6 in the final eliminator at Headingley. The Rhinos were absolutely outstanding that night. Leeds' only other Grand Final success came in 2004, ending a 32 year wait for silverware, and again the platform was laid by a 40-12 walloping of Wigan, again at Headingley in the final eliminator. So this is a fixture that Leeds thrive on, but you just feel this year that the spark is not quite there at Leeds.

That said, I'd be a mad man to back against Leeds, yet equally foolish to write off Wigan, especially given they have two former Rhinos in Richie Mathers and Mark Calderwood who will be desperate to silence the home crowd. Calderwood especially, given he's leaving for Hull FC next year.

I'm still leaning towards Leeds, given their immense pride and refusal to lose infront of their home fans. A Leeds win at under 12.5 points at [3.15] on Betfair would probably be my call, although their weakness down the problem right side is a worry. Lee Smith and Carl Ablett have been visibly vulnerable and the Warriors will look to exploit that. Wigan are [4.5] to win by a similar margin so that would provide the value. The Warriors name an unchanged squad, buoyed by drubbing the Dragons in Perpignan.

Leeds drop utility Jordan Tansey for the extra bulk of Luke 'Biffa' Burgess and will hope that will give them the edge in the arm wrestle.

With both sides opting for a huge bench, this could be an absolute bruiser. Leeds should prevail for another crack at St Helens at Old Trafford. But Wigan will quietly fancy that they will hold sway.