Rugby League Betting: Challenge Cup final preview

Rugby League / George Riley / 28 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Huddersfield Giants know that having knocked Saints out they can beat anyone. They trade around [1.9] with Betfair punters, with Tony Smith’s revitalised Warrington available at [2.2]."

In the absence of St Helens, Saturday's Challenge Cup final between two "unfashionable" sides should be a hard-fought, close encounter. But even though he's spent the week talking to the game's leading lights, George Riley is finding it very hard to predict who will win.

I've spoken to pundits, coaches, players and former players this week but not one of them could give me a confident prediction of who is going to win the 2009 Carnegie Challenge Cup final.

The Wembley fence is liable to collapse under the strain of so many guys sitting on it.
I can't remember being this excited about a Cup final before. Mainly because, in the absence of St Helens, this is now a trophy that is properly up for grabs. Saints' dominance of the sport's most coveted Cup prize became depressingly inevitable for the neutral, and this year's showpiece between two "unfashionable" sides should be a belter.

Huddersfield Giants know that having knocked Saints out they can beat anyone. They trade around [1.9] with Betfair punters, with Tony Smith's revitalised Warrington are available at [2.2].

It's a toss of a coin job, indeed John Kear, a coach who lifted the trophy with Hull FC and Sheffield, told me this week: "I don't think the battle will be won tactically or technically. It will be a case of which bunch of players copes with the occasion best, gets out there and does the ordinary things extraordinarily well."

Kear's success in 2005 saw his Hull FC side oust the heavy favourites Leeds, led by Tony Smith. Smith is in the Wolves dugout this year and will want to add the only bit of British silverware that has eluded him. His opposite number, Nathan Brown, is a former team-mate of Smith's from the Australian NRL. Brown's worked wonders in establishing the Giants as one of the best team's in this year's competition.

There's a terrific array of match betting options on Betfair, with the first tryscorer market always worth a look. Huddersfield's hopes hinge on their dazzling hopes of full-back Brett Hodgson, one of the players of the season, The diminutive Aussie is priced at [13.0] to cross the whitewash first. Matt King scored a semi-final hat-trick for Warrington and he is a similar price to score first at Wembley.

Huddersfield's last appearance in the final was at Twickenham in 2006 when they lost 42-12 to St Helens. Only five players from that side are in this year's squad: Martin Aspinwall (who scored a try), Paul Jackson, Stephen Wild, Andy Raleigh and Eorl Crabtree.

Chris Thorman captained the side that day. I had a long chat with him this week and he told me the game will be won upfront. "Two massive, muscular packs, and it could come down to Eorl Crabtree against Adrian Morley," was his assessment. Warrington are appearing in their 14th Challenge Cup Final and have won the trophy five times, and in Lee Briers have a man for the big occasion. The match-winning half-back is almost certainly going to be a man-of-the-match Lance Todd trophy contender should the Wolves prevail, and when I pushed Kear off that fence he backed a Wolves win.

The sides have met twice this season with a win apiece, and ten times in the history of this competition with Warrington taking eight of them.

As a Yorkshireman I hope Huddersfield do it, but as my mate coaches Warrington I'm going to head home happy either way. My hunch is for the Giants, they have been absolutely flying this season, and if they can dismantle St Helens in a semi-final they can certainly wound Warrington at Wembley. Upfront Eorl Crabtree is dominant and he and Paul Jackson should set a decent platform for Hodgson, Scott Moore and livewire scrum-half Luke Robinson to weave their magic.

Yet something in the back of my mind just makes me see Lee Briers lifting that Lance Todd Trophy and Smith ending his Challenge Cup hoodoo. I will be in the radio commentary box and cannot wait.