Rugby League Betting: Are odds-against Leeds Old Trafford bound?

Rugby League / George Riley / 19 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

In an unusual position as underdogs, expect a really strong performance from champions Leeds at Grand Final favourites St Helens, says George Riley.

Saints have sparkled this year, they may have only finished top by a point but Daniel Anderson's side have been comfortably Super League's standout side. That said I really fancy Leeds at Knowlsey Road.

Leeds lost there in the qualifying semi a year ago before going on to hammer Saints 33-6 in the game that mattered - the Grand Final. Leeds also won at Saints in March - the only victory in 3 games against Saints since that Grand Final.

The Rhinos to win at [3.1] looks outstanding value, with Saints at [1.51]. The home side to score first is a decent shout however, Saints [1.75] to score the game's first try and with Leon Pryce at his brilliant best that looks more than likely. Pryce will be one of all three Man Of Steel contenders on show on Friday night, provided he recovers from injury, alongside teammate James Graham and Leeds forward Jamie Peacock.

St Helens prop Jason Cayless has been included after recovering from a knee injury and that will be a huge boost. Both sides play expansive, free-flowing rugby league so expect the game's first score to be a try rather than a penalty.

Saints have been in Madrid for some warm weather training so will be well rested and ready to send departing coach Anderson off on a high.

But look at Leeds to upset the form book and win by under 12.5 points (4.1) as they bid to head straight back to the Grand Final at the first time of asking.

Friday night's losers do get a second chance. While the winners head to the Grand Final, the losers have one final opportunity - a home tie against the winners of Catalans Dragons and Wigan.

It would take a shrewd and very brave punter to back against the Dragons on their home soil. They walloped Warrington in Perpignan last week and the heat, their strong pack, and the boisterous French crowd makes a home win (1.52) the most likely outcome.

That said, if any of the playoff hopefuls can win in France, it is Wigan. Brian Noble is a battle-worn play-off coach with the nouse to beat anyone, so the Warriors to win at [2.92] should not be ignored.

I expect this one to be really tight - much more so than the 46-8 walloping of Warrington. Catalans Dragons will be without loose forward Gregory Mounis which could be a big loss after he was given a one-match for striking an opponent on the ground with his elbow against the Wolves. But in Dream Team full-back Clint Greenshields and the exceptional Thomas Bosc, on paper the Dragons look too strong.

The only worry I have is how their lack of play-off experience, against seasoned-campaigners Wigan, will manifest itself, and a surprise Wigan win would not actually shock me.

Either way it will be tight. Under 12.5 points for a Wigan win is priced at [3.95] at Betfair with a Dragons win by the same score available at [3.1].

In truth both games are too close to call, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Leeds head straight to Old Trafford against the odds, and Wigan heading for a derby with St Helens next weekend.