Tri-Nations Betting: Evolving Boks look good to make it a World Cup/Tri-Nations double

Internationals / Geoffrey Riddle / 18 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

The World Champions boast an impressive record in the Subiaco Oval where they are favourites to make it two away wins in a row. Meanwhile, New Zealand will fancy their chances against a transitional Wallabies side, says Geoffrey Riddle.

In July 2000, New Zealand won their Tri-Nations opener 39-35 against Australia in Stadium Australia. It was one of the greatest Tests of all time, one which saw the All Blacks race to a 24-0 lead after the first nine minutes, before being pegged back 24-24 at half-time.

What edged it for the tourists in front of a record crowd of 109,874 was that giant of a man, Jonah Lomu, who loomed up to score in the dying minutes of that epic contest.

With that road success under their belts, New Zealand were [1.16] to scoop the Tri-Nations, but a pair of one-point away victories against South Africa and New Zealand went a long way in earning John Eales's Wallabies the title.

Fastforward eight years, and the question everyone must be asking themselves is whether South Africa are value at [2.36] to win the Tri-Nations after last week's 30-28 victory over the All Blacks in Dunedin?

The last time the Tri-Nations had an expanded fixture list where each side played six fixtures was two years ago when New Zealand were runaway winners boasting two away victories. This weekend South Africa clash with Robbie Deans's Wallabies in Perth, a city that has an extensive South African expat population.

The Subiaco Oval has staged four matches in the last ten years between these two sides and Australia have prevailed only once. It is easy to see therefore why South Africa are favoured to make it two away wins from three games this season.

If the Springboks do win in Perth, then I would make them around [1.5] to scoop the title. Their only weakness from here on in is the crucial head-to-head with New Zealand in Cape Town on August 16. The organisers should have plumped for a game at altitude against the All Blacks because their record at sea-level venues like Cape Town (Newlands) and Durban (Absa Stadium) is pretty good, but still, you wouldn't imagine that the home side would be much more than [1.3] on the day of that match.

New Zealand have won four out of their last nine in Australia, and picked up a bonus point in each of those five losses, too. With the Wallabies in a transitional phase, coach Graham Henry can expect to win perhaps one of the fixtures in either Sydney or Brisbane against the Wallabies, and pick up a bonus point in the other, but that is unlikely to be enough considering Australia must play both of their away games against the Springboks at altitude, and they have lost eight consecutive fixtures in the Rainbow Nation.

Unquestionably South Africa have the best side on paper, and last week it was easy to see that with a squad boasting around half of their World Cup campaigners, they had the necessary experience and nous to eke out a win under tough circumstances. To be fair, it was a win that I had not envisaged.

Victor Matfield, the great lock, took the captaincy honours in Dunedin in the absence of the injured John Smit, but even when Matfield was sent to the sin-bin by the pedantic referee, Matt Goddard, in the 73rd minute with his side trailing 28-23, it was admirable to see how South Africa managed to get scrum-half Ricky Januarie in a position to score his wonderful try that sealed the historic win.

What was perhaps more revealing was that the Springboks had evolved since their 19-8 defeat in Wellington. The Springbok scrum held firm last week, the line-out was approached differently, and their defensive strategy forced the All Blacks to attack up the middle, not from out wide.

Whoever is responsible for this organic approach - those who criticised coach Peter de Villiers in the lead up to last week's game should perhaps get their spoons at the ready for some humble pie - has put the Springboks in a very strong position, and if they can outfox Deans' men in Perth tomorrow, they may have just won the Tri-Nations for their country.