Rugby Union Betting: Kidney puts faith in attack for Aussie Test

Internationals / Geoffrey Riddle / 24 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jonathan Sexton will start at fly-half for Ireland against Australia

"Ireland are [4.8] to beat Australia in Brisbane, and once again the ‘overs’ in the total tries market, as well as possibly total points, look very appealing."

Geoffrey Riddle is out to ride his luck again this weekend as he offers his thoughts on three international Tests between Northern and Southern hemisphere teams...

Last week I suggested backing the 'overs' in the total match tries market in New Zealand's clash with Wales. As luck would have it, the All Blacks scored five tries in Dunedin to secure a profit.

It was not how I had envisaged the match going at all, but sometimes you've just got to ride your luck. It would be foolish not to learn from my mistake, however, and the reason I felt it was a good trade was because Ireland managed to score four tries against Graham Henry's men the week before, when the tourists lost 66-28 in New Plymouth.

The most extraordinary aspect of that match was that Ireland scored their tries with 14 men on the pitch after Jamie Heaslip received a red card due to a knee to Richie McCaw's head in the 15th minute. There must have been a certain amount of complacency from the All Blacks, because Ireland's first try of the match took the score to 38-7 in the 38th minute, but the fact remains that it was Ireland's best try-haul against the All Blacks in the 23-game history between these two going back to 1905. So instead of All Black defensive frailties, fused to a laissez-faire attitude, it was Ireland's potent attacking force that resulted in that incredible scoreline a fortnight ago.

This Saturday, Ireland are [4.8] to beat Australia in Brisbane, and once again the 'overs' in the total tries market, as well as possibly total points, look very appealing. Ireland coach Declan Kidney has plumped for Jonathan Sexton at fly-half over veteran Ronan O'Gara. It is a decision that screams of attacking intent, and one that can be backed up by the stats. Ireland have scored at least two tries in four of the five games that the Leinster man has started. The only game in which he failed to orchestrate a five-pointer was against world champions South Africa in November, a tryless match that Ireland won 15-10.

There's every reason to believe that Australia will play their part, too. Star fly-half Quade Cooper was shackled by the menacing Lewis Moody last week, and as the game went on the young Queensland Red kicked away far too much possession. Munster's Niall Ronan is a decent operator, but as an open-side flanker he currently lacks the presence and cussedness of Moody, and is unlikely to cage Cooper on his home turf.

What's more, Australia coach Robbie Deans is still without his Test front-row, and as the tourists are also without several first-choice forwards, this fixture looks a tit-for-tat challenge between two exciting backlines under clear skies.

The clash between New Zealand and Wales early on Saturday morning looks a tricky one to work out, simply because Wales did not get the rewards they possibly deserved last week. Coach Warren Gatland has drafted in Dan Biggar at flyhalf after Wales lost 42-9, and the 20-year-old Osprey has a huge challenge in facing up to Dan Carter.

If anything, New Zealand are stronger after fullback Israel Dagg suffered concussion. He is replaced by Mils Muliaina, while the Franks brothers, Owen and Ben, make way for the grizzly props Tony Woodcock and Neemia Tialata.

Wales have not been as big an underdog against any side since they received a 33-point headstart against England in the quarter-final of the 2003 World Cup. The last time Wales found themselves in a position such as this was when the Springboks buried them 43-17 at Vodacom Park in 2008. A week later, the Welsh went down again, but with an improved margin of just 16 points. The high street layers have gone for a 25-point start for Wales, which on the face of it all looks a fair mid-point for even trade.

John Smit and Schalk Burger return to the Springbok side that takes on Italy in East London this Saturday. South Africa beat Nick Mallett's side 29-13 last weekend in Witbank, but the Azzurri outscored their hosts 10-7 in the second half. Italy have long been a profitable wager on second-half handicaps, and may be so again on what should be around a 16-point start from half-time.