Internationals / George Riley / 24 October 2008 / Leave a comment

George Riley has gone through the odds ahead of the first set of World Cup fixtures. Read his verdict here.

England are in the unenviable position of being the first heavyweight side to play the group's banana skin Papua New Guinea but I expect a powerful start from Tony Smith's versatile team.

In fact I'm really excited about England's chances. This is the best coach we have had for a while, and a really mobile bunch of players. The 17 Smith has picked is awesome, and there is just as much talent waiting in the wings.

So first up is PNG in Townsville on Saturday morning, before the big games against favourites Australia (huge home favourites at [1.33] with Betfair to lift the trophy) and New Zealand ([8.8]).

PNG have been understandably angered at their placement in a group of the three heavyweights, from which three teams progress to the semis. So don't be surprised to see a backlash in their play. There is real flair in veteran magician Stanley Gene and the livewire John Wilshere and in former Wigan scrum-half Adrian Lam they have a coach with a perfect knowledge of how to unsettle the English. That said England just have too much quality.

They will win this game and are an understandable [1.03] to do so (PNG [26.0]). The first score of the game will in all likelihood be an England try at [1.33], given Smith is never a big fan of kicking for goal on a penalty. So the value betting would be on margin of victory, and if they play with their trademark spirit and patriotism, there is every chance PNG could make something of a game of it. England at [2.16] to win by over 38.5 points though still appeals.

Expect big performances from the monster pack of James Graham, skipper Jamie Peacock , and off the bench from Adrian Morley and Maurie Fa'asavalu, while the likes of Lee Smith on the wing, and Gareth Hock in the second row will want to cement their places for next weekend's crunch against the Aussies.

Australia open their campaign on Sunday against New Zealand, while Scotland have a bruiser against France on the same day.

Some say the Aussies are there for the taking this year, But Ricky Stuart's side are huge favourites to win the tournament for a 7th time on the spin. The Kiwis could test them but the Kangaroos are just [1.23] with Betfair to topple the old enemy. New Zealand at [5.4] would be the tasty punt for an opening weekend shock. One thing is for sure, there is a gap in quality between these two top sides but I expect that to go largely out of the window given the national pride factor on the opening weekend of the World Cup. I may be tempted by the [3.2] on offer from Betfair for Australia to triumph by less than 12.5 points.

Look out for giant Aussie wing Israel Falou. 6ft 5in and 16st 3lb, scary for a teenager.
Scotland open their World Cup against the French on Sunday morning. Scotland hooker Andrew Henderson's a close friend of mine and we have spoken regularly since he's been over there. Hendo reckons France should walk this group, but believes that pressure could work against the blossoming French. I sense a real spirit, bond and togetherness in this Scotland side, who led by Danny Brough are in decent shape to spring an upset.

It would be an upset though. The Scots are [5.4] with Betfair to topple France and that is about right. That said, Scotland to score the game's first try at [2.4] takes my fancy, although as much as I want Hendo to be in a good mood when I speak to him next week, I can't help feeling he will be contemplating a defeat. With a dozen Catalan Dragons in the side, France just have too much firepower and it will take something special to deny them their place alongside Australia, England and New Zealand in the last four.