Internationals / Ralph Ellis / 31 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Tony Smith's are nigh-on no-hopers against Australia in the World Cup fixture this weekend, says Ralph Ellis.

It's a pretty familiar tale. You get to a World Cup, talk up the prospects of the England team, rave about the great players and the golden generation - then watch it all end in disappointment. Oh yes, we've been there before, all too many times.

Sadly, all the signs are there of the same thing happening again down under as the Rugby League World Cup gets under way. Sunday morning brings the first - and biggest - real test for Tony Smith's side when England face Australia. And surprise, surprise, this morning's papers are full of bullish talk as well as stats that St Helens star James Graham is the competition's top forward.

At least he'll be fit for Sunday's clash. The last time he was due to come to Australia - for the Tri Nations in 2006 - he had to pull out after injuring his hand as a result of high jinks after Saints Grand Final victory. "I've put that episode behind me and moved on with my club and hopefully my country too," he says today. "I was only 21 at the time and it is in the past."

The man who won the Man of Steel award has, apparently, come up with 22 runs, 182 metres gained and five off loads. And he's being told he could take his pick of any of the Aussie Rugby League clubs if he fancied trying his luck in the NRL.

The trouble is that those statistics come from only one match, and they will count for nothing if the rest of the team isn't performing. England made such a stuttering start against Papua New Guinea it's hard to see how they can change that around in the space of a week.

Last Friday, I recommended backing Papua New Guinea plus 16.5 points and it was a comfortable winner at [5.0]. Now there's more money to be made by being realistic about England's prospects against Australia - they don't have any.

The Aussies are as short as [1.17] to win, but the real value is in backing them to win by more than 18.5 points at better than evens, somewhere between [2.06] and [2.5]. The sheer strength of their two centres Greg Inglis and Israel Folau - both man mountains at 6ft 4ins plus who can sprint like Usain Bolt - will be just too much for England and in the heat that will mean a big score building up late in the game.

If you want to be more cautious then Australia by more than 12.5 points is currently priced between [1.52] and [1.95]. It's worth putting up something like [1.8] and trying to get it matched by somebody who is far more patriotic!

Five things you might not know about Greg Inglis

1. Born in Kempsey in January 1987, he went to Wavell State High School and broke into the Australian schools rugby league team when he was still aged 16

2. He's 6ft 5ins and nearly 16 stone in weight - but was measured as having less than 8 per cent body fat

3. After moving to join Melbourne Storm's junior ranks he was picked to play for Queensland in the State of Origin series - which caused a row as he was born in New South Wales

4. He turned down an offer to play Rugby Union in France that would have been worth a million Australian dollars a year to stay close to his father who suffered a heart attack

5. Still aged only 20, he's been picked to lead a campaign to encourage indigenous Australians to develop leadership skills