Rugby League Four Nations Betting: Odds reflect England's decline

Internationals / George Riley / 30 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Watching the Aussies and Kiwis bash each other around the Stoop last weekend, my heart sank imagining what would happen to England seven days later. Now we shall find out."

George Riley fears that the gap between England and their Southern hemisphere opponents has increased in the last year. However, our man is still looking forward to the young guns giving it a go...

The question I've been asking myself and other rugby league folk this week, is just how big the gap is between England and the Southern hemisphere superpowers.

Coach Tony Smith maintains that our dismal World Cup failure has not seen us lose ground. We went to the tournament as third in the world, and came back as third in the world.

Tony's plea for perspective evades the issue of just how bad England were. Fans of English rugby league thought we were a lot closer to Australia and New Zealand than became brutally apparent Down Under, and the opening round of matches in this Four Nations has served only to underline the fear that the gap has widened.

So in essence, Saturday is D day for Smith and his new-look, youthful England to prove they can match it with the best in the business. Sitting watching the Aussies and Kiwis bash each other around the Stoop last weekend my heart sunk imagining what would happen to England seven days later. Now we shall find out.

Smith's side stuttered to an unconvincing 22-point win over France, thanks to Richie Myler's two second-half tries. My only personal solace from the performance was tipping up a 20-30 point win. Myler's reward for saving England's blushes is being dropped for this weekend's showdown with the Kangaroos. Sam Tomkins takes his place on his home ground at Wigan and, at the risk of being a contradiction in terms, I know the Aussies are wary of his unknown talents.

Coach Tim Sheens told me this week that they have done their homework on the Wigan youngster, but still know next to nothing about him. It's the proverbial baptism of fire but I expected Tomkins to rise to the challenge. Big Eorl Crabtree comes in too. Big Daddy's nephew is a gangly beast of a prop and will gives the Aussies something to think about off the bench.

Nathan Hindmarsh comes in for the Aussies. I was surprised he was left out against New Zealand, and even more surprised when he joined us out on the beer in west London last week on learning that he'd been overlooked. He may not have played an international in a couple of years but Hindmarsh is still one of the best forwards in world rugby.

A look at how the match is trading on Betfair shows how far our punters believe England have slipped down the international ladder. Odds of [8.6] to win on home turf appears obscene, but as hard as a I try I can't see a scenario whereby England will walk off the field winners. The Aussies at [1.15] are barely backable and I expect them to give England a torrid evening.

I believe England's pack can match the Aussies, and have faith in the half-backs Tomkins and Danny McGuire. But the rest of the backline worries me. A three-quarter line of Ryan Hall, Michael Shenton, Lee Smith and Tom Briscoe is liable to get flattened by Greg Inglis and co, so England must make every possession count. England don't stand a chance if the game is played in their own half.

This looks like at least a 20-point win for the Aussies, and I'll be looking at the try scorer market for a few quid. Full-back Billy Slater was kept quiet against the Kiwis so expect him to cross at [1.8]. Inglis at [1.73] looks a shout too, while hooker Cameron Smith trades at [4.0] to cross the whitewash again after his last-gasp match-saver against New Zealand.

Stephen Kearney takes New Zealand to a French side who trade at a whopping [30.0] with Betfair punters to win in Toulouse. That's an extraordinary price given the problems they posed England but there shouldn't be any risk of a shock. It was magnificent to see monster prop Fuifui Moi Moi back on the big stage, and New Zealand should definitely have beaten Australia.

If you can see the French defence holding out through the first 10 minutes then there's a little more value, with [2.6] on offer for the first try to be scored from 11-20 minutes.
New Zealand should thump France, and that draw with Australia will have felt like a defeat.

England know if they can pull off a huge shock at the DW Stadium, then the Aussies will be as good as out of the tournament. I'll be in the North west to commentate on this one and, regardless of the frailty of England's chances, I can't wait to see Smith's young guns give it a go.