Internationals / George Riley / 29 October 2008 / Leave a comment

England were just finding their feet in their limping victory over PNG so don't expect a battering against Australia, says George Riley. But can they defy the odds and defeat the World Champions?

Tony Smith needs a monumental improvement from England to hold any hope of toppling the best team on the planet.

Billed by many in the game as "vulnerable" ahead of the latest defence of their World crown, Australia were anything but, in destroying New Zealand 30-6 on the opening weekend. That immense Aussie display came just hours after Smith's hopefuls limped to victory against a fired up Papua New Guinea, so you can understand why England fans are wary of a battering in Melbourne on Sunday.

I remain marginally more optimistic. Yes, if Australia play like they did against the Kiwis then England are in trouble. But you should read nothing into England's own stutter against PNG. That was Smith's side getting a feel for the competition against a wounded beast - PNG, furious at being placed in a group from which they have next to no chance of progressing, were always capable of producing an angry backlash. In the end England's superior fitness told, and they will have learned a lot.

England are priced at [5.0] with Betfair to shock the favourites, Australia just [1.12] to make it two wins from two.

And while the Aussies pick the same side that crushed the Kiwis - again look out for monster teenage wing Isreal Folau - tipped as the one to watch in this column last weekend and obliging with a brace of tries - England are forced into one change.

Hat-trick hero Lee Smith is forced out through injury, Wigan's Mark Calderwood the man to profit. I am a little concerned about Calderwood's selection. He sneaked into the squad off the back of a terrific end to the season, culminating in a man-of-the-match display in Wigan's defeat at Leeds in the Grand Final eliminator. But that was one game. And it was over five weeks ago - he has not played since. I expect Calders to be targeted by Australia and he can look forward to a mightily rough ride in Melbourne.

I would also have been tempted to bring in Leeds forward Jamie Jones Buchanan. JJB's power, speed and energy would have given the Aussies a lot to think about, but Smith has kept faith with Gareth Hock, and on the bench Jon Wilkin.

I'm not predicting an England victory, but I think those tipping a humiliation are going to be way off. I'd direct Betfair punters to somewhere in between the 12.5 to 18.5 point victory margin. But don't underestimate the pride and potential in this new-look, versatile England.

Prior to this heavweight Sunday showdown, France can qualify from their group on Saturday morning with victory over Fiji, while New Zealand can book a place in the semi-finals if they end PNG's tournament. Given their respective opening-weekend fortunes, that game could be a belter.

Having said that, I fear PNG have probably got their aggression out of the system and may lack a little intensity against the Kiwis. New Zealand are [1.04] with Betfair, PNG [6.2], and the favourites will win it to confirm their place in the last four. A Kiwi defeat and they would need a hefty win over England in thief final group game.

France were given an almighty scare by Scotland's bravehearts and may find Fiji an even tougher proposition. The Fijians boast real flair, with Bradford's Semi Tadulala their standout performer and are more than capable of an upset (3.25). France (1.17) are without injured Super League pair Julien Rinaldi and Eric Anselme and will have to produce more than they showed Scotland, to beat Fiji. They do however, have enough power in the pack to progress.

Friday sees Samoa play Tonga. The Tongans scraped past an inspired Ireland 22-20 but will have too much class for Samoa.
But all eyes this weekend are on Melbourne. It's the irresistible Aussies against an England side fired up to make history. Tony Smith will have his charges primed and ready for 80 minutes of blood and thunder.