International Rugby Betting: Back Boks and Ireland on busy weekend

Internationals / Geoffrey Riddle / 13 November 2009 / Leave a comment

France are dreaming of World Cup glory so what better opponents for them than the current champions? Meanwhile, can Brian O'Driscoll celebrate his 100th cap with victory over the Aussies? Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets.

"Betfair layers make the tourists [1.75], which is a gift in my view... I can’t work out why South Africa are not as short as [1.5] to back."

The freakish selection methods of France coach Marc Lievremont seemed weird and wonderful when he first took charge of Les Bleus after the 2007 World Cup. After many trials and tribulations, the former great finally has settled on a squad which, he believes, could lift France to glory in 2011.

That dream will face a searching test this Friday, when world champions South Africa take on Les Bleus in Toulouse, a traditional hotbed of Gallic rugby. In two weeks time, Les Bleus take on New Zealand in the fearsome Stade Velodrome in Marseille and, although that stadium is almost impregnable, the French port lacks a rugby culture of its own. Not so in the Pink City. Stade Toulousain have been French champions an astonishing 17 times, and it is this heartbeat of the national side that Lievremont hopes to harness against the world champions.

The France coach has named seven players from the Top 14 club and one selection theme runs through his XV: size and power. Lievremont hopes to match the bulk of the Springboks, who were unceremoniously dumped 22-17 at Welford Road last Friday. That defeat at the hands of Leicester is just another reason why so many punters and tipsters believe that France should be favourites for what is gearing up to be a titanic clash.

If Lievremont's methods seemed strange, the whole world looked on in delight as Peter De Villiers made all sorts of interesting selection gaffes when taking control of the Springboks after the World Cup. De Villiers has settled into his role, however, and South Africa ruffled a few feathers by turning up to Toulouse's Blagnac airport just 60 hours before kick-off. South Africa 'for real' arrived on Wednesday, and punters must take into consideration that not a single player who took part at Welford Road starts on Friday.

De Villiers has named a run-on team with just four changes to the side that lifted the Tri-Nations with the 32-29 victory over the All Blacks in September. It is pretty much the same team that beat the British and Irish Lions, too. And yet, there is a high street bookie willing to go 5-6 about the world champions. Betfair layers are more savvy, and they make the tourists [1.75] at the time of writing, which is still a gift in my view.

I priced this game up on Monday, and have returned to my workings now that the teams have been announced. I have racked my brains, and even with the greatest respect for Lievremont's side, I can't work out why South Africa are not as short as [1.5]. The only reason I can think of is that, historically, South Africa have struggled on their first tour match, and by that I don't mean the one at Welford Road.

There have been mutterings about the side being jaded, but consider the words of skipper John Smit, who put those fears to rest on Wednesday afternoon. He said: "We want to bury this end of year bogey and training well in near perfect conditions [in Johannesburg] was more useful than struggling in the cold and wet.

"We arrived late in Perth earlier this year and beat Australia. You saw the energy we had for that game and that was with a time difference and jet lag. Everyone slept for 10 hours on the plane last night and here we are, so there should be no problems."

If Springbok flanker Schalk Burger feels slightly awkward returning to the international fold after his gouging against the Lions, how do you think Irish prop John Hayes feels ahead of his side's clash with Australia on Sunday?

Leinster's Cian Healy has been called up to prop alongside the big Munster man, but Hayes has just returned from a five-week suspension for raking Healy's face into a bloody mess in an ill-tempered encounter between the two Magners League sides. The mood in the Irish camp must be interesting to say the least, and it will be a triumph of diplomacy if Declan Kidney can get the two working together effectively.

From the press conference earlier this week, it looked like Kidney was winning his battle, and Ireland must rate a decent wager at Croke Park. For all their inventiveness last week against England, Australia were heavily up against it in the first half. They conceded penalty after penalty and their lineout is still malfunctioning.

Ireland's Plan A of getting Ronan O'Gara to kick for the corners will place the Wallabies under tremendous strain. New centre pairing Quade Cooper and Digby Ioane puffed their chests out last week at Twickenham, but against the wily Brian O'Driscoll, who wins his 100th international cap, they are going to be tested to the limit. Ireland in the winning margin market by 1-12 points could be a big price come kick-off.

The other three matches, Wales v Samoa, Scotland v Fiji and England v Argentina look best left to the in-running traders amongst you. For those of you who like to invest small and win big, the 'no try' at Twickenham looks a real runner.

Tags: England v Argentina, France v South Africa, Geoffrey Riddle, Ireland v Australia, Rugby Union Betting Odds, Rugby Union Betting Tips, Schalk Burger