Internationals / George Riley / 14 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Rugby League maestro George Riley searches for the best bets ahead of tonight's Four Nations final

"I had breakfast with the Aussie coach Tim Sheens on the eve of this tournament. He told me the pressure was on England to make the final and it would be a failure if they didn't. Well they have, and now England have a chance to wipe the cocky smile of the Aussie faces."

England have a glorious opportunity to stick two fingers up at the doubters when they play Australia in the Four Nations Final.

Having knocked out world champions New Zealand, Tony Smith's side are within 80 minutes of a famous triumph, albeit they take to the field at Elland Road as massive underdogs.
England are trading around [5.9] on Betfair to pull off a shock in front of a sell-out home crowd, with the Aussies largely unbackable at [1.21]. Nobody expects an England win, so can they do it?

Sadly, the answer is probably not. The key for Smith's men is to keep the crowd involved. To do that they have to be in the game at half-time. At 26-0 down to Australia a fortnight ago in Wigan, England were booed off. The second-half riposte was as encouraging as it was surprising, but I left the DW Stadium wondering what could have happened had England kept the crowd involved.

A big start is crucial then at Elland Road. I rate England's pack as the best in the world. Bigger and meaner than both Australia and New Zealand, and that is a huge statement. Sam Burgess, Eorl Crabtree, Adrian Morley, James Graham and Jamie Peacock need to lay a bulldozing platform for livewire young half Sam Tomkins.

I had breakfast with the Aussie coach Tim Sheens on the eve of this tournament. He told me the pressure was on England to make the final and it would be a failure if they didn't. Well they have, and now England have a chance to wipe the cocky smile of the Aussie faces.

England will front up for this game and do not expect a rout, so perhaps look at England with a 14.5point start at [1.72]. I fear Australia have fair too much flair in Greg Inglis, Darren Lockyer and Billy Slater, and the worry is that if they go over early then they could score at will.

England therefore have to marshall their own line, but I do worry about the inexperienced outside backs - as I have said before, they do not fill me with a massive amount of defensive confidence against the bulldozing southern hemisphere superpowers. Chris Bridge had a decent debut at right centre but he is not a man I would pick to stifle Inglis, although Peter Fox's pace does give England an edge outside.

I would love to predict an England win but I can't see it. Mind you, I couldn't see it last week and look what happened. One thing I will predict is that I expect this to be coach Tony Smith's final game in charge. Smith has come in for a load of criticism since taking over from Brian Noble as national coach and I expect him to walk away after the final and concentrate on coaching Warrington in Super League.

I hope Smith's swansong will be a famous victory but I just think these Kangaroos are too strong for the inexperienced Lions.

Tags: Australia, England, Four Nations, Tony Smith