Carnegie Challenge Cup Betting: Wire's Atkins to corner the Lance Todd market

Rugby League / Graham Cunningham / 26 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Ryan Atkins is Cunningham's idea of a Lance Todd

"My first reaction when looking at the game was that this would be a case of [1.91] each of two off scratch or that Warrington would be giving up two. However, at least a couple of firms are giving Warrington a small start. That's the clincher as far as I'm concerned."

The advent of Super League has revolutionised rugby, but the Carnegie Challenge Cup holds every bit as much allure as it ever did to fans of the greatest game. Graham Cunningham is frustrated to be missing this year's final but will be cheering on Warrington as last year's winners go head to head with Leeds at Wembley this Saturday.

It would be stretching things a little to say that I would give my right arm to be at Wembley for the Challenge Cup Final this Saturday - but not by much.

Any rugby league fan will tell you that the north's annual invasion of London for an event which combines the ancient and modern perfectly still ranks every bit as high in their affections as a trip to Old Trafford to enjoy its younger and flashier cousin the Grand Final.

And any Wigan fan will tell you that a trip to Wembley used to be regarded as little more than a birthright during an era of domination which saw them lift the trophy nine times from 11 attempts between 1985 and 1995.

I wasn't the only one convinced that another trip south was on the agenda in 2010, but Leeds put paid to that in foul weather during a nip and tuck quarter final clash in foul weather at Headingley and their battle with Warrington this Saturday (14.30) has any number of compelling subplots.

First, we have the Lancashire against Yorkshire angle; second, we have the current holders bidding to subdue a Leeds side who have been near the top of the tree for the last decade without getting their hands on the Challenge Cup.

Third, we have former Leeds coach Tony Smith trying to kybosh his old club with a Wire side who have finally shed their long-time label as Super League's great underachievers.

And fourth, we have two sides filled with players capable of striking at a moment's notice if their opponents show the slightest sign of frailty.

In truth, you don't need a bet to savour a game like this - and it comes as no surprise to see the line makers divided as to which side should be favourite - but Warrington get my vote to shade what should be a humdinger with their dangerous centre Ryan Atkins nominated as a value punt to win the Lance Todd Trophy.

Granted, Leeds have been firing on full power recently and beat Wire in both their league games. However, the loss of talismanic captain Jamie Peacock to injury leaves Leeds with a hole that is hard to fill and Warrington line up with a side full of seasoned internationals who know exactly how to dig in when things get tough in big games.

My first reaction when looking at the game was that this would be a case of [1.91] each of two off scratch or that Warrington would be giving up two. However, at least a couple of firms are giving Warrington a small start.

That's the clincher as far as I'm concerned and, although the Lance Todd market is a bit of a crapshoot, a good performance from half backs Lee Briers and Michael Monaghan will give the powerful Atkins every chance to catch the eye of the Lance Todd judges at what should be a value price.

Lastly, a quick word on the total points market. Low scoring Challenge Cup Finals are rare on Wembley's wide pitch and this is unlikely to be dour with so many potential line breakers on show.

All in all, this looks likely to be a free scoring affair - and if the total points line is in the mid 40s I would be inclined to go over rather than under.