This weekend's match-up with Canada allows them to do just that. Scotland put in some impressive plays in their first outing against New Zealand a fortnight ago, despite being mauled 32-6 by the All Blacks. Although the feted flanker Richie McCaw was on the field, Scotland's back-row managed to turn over their visitors 22 times.

It was a similar story last weekend against the Springboks. Flankers Jason White and John Barclay alongside No.8 Ally Hogg, forced the South African's to cough up the ball 16 times, which is twice the amount that Scotland gave the ball away.

If Hadden's new-look back-row trio of Alasdair Strokosch, John Barclay and Simon Taylor manage a similar rate of return on Saturday, and you would expect that to be the case against lowly Canada, then the quick ball provided by them should see Scotland finally be able to convert that dominance at the breakdown into points.

They have a good history of beating minnows, too. At home, Scotland have played 16 teams who were below them in the IRB world rankings at the time over the last eight years and they have beaten 15 of them. Only Italy had the temerity to upset the apple cart when they won 37-17 in that crazy Six Nations game last year when the Azzurri scored three tries in the opening six minutes.

The only worry for handicap punters is the loss of dead-eyed goal-kicker Chris Paterson, who was taken off in the tenth minute in last week's fixture. Both replacement kickers Dan Parks and Phil Godman contributed to Scotland's five missed attempts at goal against South Africa, and Godman, who starts, will need to bring his A game to the match held in Aberdeen.

Punters may look at the fact that Ireland were considered 32-point favourites against the Canadians two weeks ago, and that Scotland have no right to be similarly as short. You can back Scotland on a 26.5-point handicap on Betfair at [1.72], although with bigger handicaps available in the betting village, that price is likely to drift.

The Wales v New Zealand game looks very tricky, especially as Wales have hardly impressed in either of their outings this season. Coach Warren Gatland has been furious with his squad for their under-par performances and the All Blacks have had a punishing schedule and look to be interested in just getting over the line each time.

The bet of the weekend has to be Argentina though. In the last five fixtures between Ireland and the Pumas, Argentina have been handicap winners every single time. They've won the last three matches against Ireland, which included the 30-15 World Cup drubbing last year. We all know that Ireland have rid themselves of the malaise which engulfed the squad in the death throes of Eddie O'Sullivan's tenure, but are they really that much better?

They were pretty dreadful last week against the All Blacks, and it has to be remembered that the boffs at the IRB consider Argentina a significantly better side than their hosts. At [3.05], the visitors look massive value, and I'll be looking to oppose Ireland on the -4.5 line at anything up to around [1.8].

As for France v Australia, the prices look similar to the Wallabies' clash with England last week, which is probably fair, considering Les Bleus must be rated along the same lines as Johnson's England. Even the first scoring play market seems right. The Aussies have opened the scoring with a penalty in every away game so far under coach Robbie Deans, but France have an excellent record at home. There will be other opportunities....

Harrison clearly knows what he is talking about, despite his propensity to get up most Englishmen's noses whenever he speaks, and he nailed down what England need to achieve to beat the Springboks at Twickenham this Saturday. England are [2.1] in the match betting market, while South Africa are slight favourites at [2.04]

"The team that respects possession will prevail," said the former Wallaby. "Both sides are very good at first-phase, and sometimes you get complacent when you have the ball and turn it over because you know you have a good scrum and line-out and can win it back. But that would be a mistake."

You've got to agree with him, but the key word he used is respect. Rugby is no longer a game whereby the team that enjoys the most possession and territory is awarded the win.

England found that out to their cost against Australia last week, as did Wales against South Africa the week before. Come to mention it, Scotland dominated the All Blacks at Murrayfield and still lost. They didn't even score a try.

It's a general theme going through world rugby at the moment. Consider the statistic that only five of the 15 matches in last season's Six Nations were won by the side with the most possession. It was the same in last year's rugby World Cup when just two of the 16 knock-out stage matches were won by the side who held on to the ball the most.

This is clearly a problem that England will need to sort out at Twickenham, especially as it seems that coach Martin Johnson wants to play a possession dominant game.

If you look at the matches that the Tri-Nations sides have played in this year's autumn window, they have one tactic in common: they tackle the other side to a standstill. New Zealand made 103 tackles to Scotland's 58. South Africa made 127 to Wales's 78. Australia put in 159 to England's paltry 56. What was skipper Steve Borthwick and his team doing exactly at Twickenham last week?

It is quite clear that although Southern hemisphere teams differ in rugby philosophy, they share similar characteristics. They tackle hard, they look to dominate the breakdown and, most interestingly of all, originate almost a third of their try-scoring attacks from their own half. The Six Nations teams start only a fifth of their try-scoring attacks form their own half.

It has long been known that the line-out and scrum are the two best areas to secure quality possession which leads to points but England were creaky at both set-pieces last week and they line-up against the two best line-out operators in the world in Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha. The loss of prop Andrew Sheridan at the 11th hour is a massive blow.

Another thing that could compound England's problems is that their discipline last week was atrocious. Sure, the penalty count was similar for both sides, but England gave away far too many penalties in kickable areas, and most of those were for ridiculous offences.

Most punters will point to the lack of an assured fly-half in the Springbok ranks, but they have had 10 potshots at the posts on this tour and scored with seven of them. Not bad.

Thankfully, England have an exceptional record of getting onto the score-sheet first both in the first half and the second half. They have opened the scoring in the first half at Twickenham in 11 of their last 15 matches there and they have been more prolific after the break, notching first in their last eight at HQ. They trade at [2.84] to open the scoring with a penalty.
England need these early points in both halves to settle their nerves, and to give them confidence that they can win.

South Africa are not playing their best rugby at the moment - they seem to have far too much else on their plates with all the politics and in-fighting going on - and without their leading stars such as Fourie Du Preez, Butch James and CJ Van der Linde to guide them through it, they look the worst of the three Tri-Nations teams.

Don't get me wrong, England are not far off being a decent side under Johnson, but South Africa present a massive challenge and I'm laying the Springboks at the outset, with a view to backing them in-running sometime after half-time if the price is right. I apologise if you see me shouting 'Bokke, Bokke, Bokke' somewhere on Saturday in the second-half, as there's really not a worse sight than that.

Ireland need to win this game to be guaranteed of eight place in the IRB rankings, ahead of the World Cup draw on December 1st. If they play as well as they did last week then they should have enough to see off their nemesis in what should be a tight affair.

Ireland's cause will be massively aided by the absence of Felipe Contepomi. The Pumas captain is ruled out with an infection to a cut on his hand and his absence will leave a huge void of creativity in the Pumas backline. Argentina will also miss his goal-kicking and will have to rely on the boot of Hernandez to keep in touch with Ireland. Hernandez was Ireland's tormenter in chief in the world cup with three drop goals in the 30-15 defeat that sent Ireland crashing out of the competition and ultimately cost Eddie O' Sullivan his job. Hernandez has tried drop goal after drop goal this year with Stade Francais and should do the same on Saturday. The first score of the game to be a drop goal is priced at [11.0] and this represents great value.

Ireland have a lot of scores to settle with Argentina and have more to play for in terms of the world cup seedings than the Pumas as they know all too well the perils of being in a tough world cup group. Argentina are trying to hold on to fourth place in the rankings at the expense of England but the fixtures that the English face should ensure that the South Americans are safe in fourth and will thus avoid being in a group with any of the tri nations.

The Irish back-line made some decent breaks against an outstanding All Blacks defence last week and should find it easier to make hay against Argentina, especially since Geordan Murphy comes into replace Demspey at full-back. Murphy will add flair to the backs and should also be well able to deal with the aerial bombardment from Hernandez that caused so much difficulty in the meeting of the sides at the world cup. Where Ireland may struggle is in the lineout, especially if Paul O' Connell doesn't recover from the dead leg he received at the weekend.

At least the throwing into the lineout should improve as Kidney has seen sense and dropped Rory Best in favour of Jerry Flannery. The ridiculous policy of having one Ulster representative on the Irish side means that Stephen Ferris starts at blindside flanker. One position is left open pending Alan Quinlan's appeal against a three-match ban.

In summary, Ireland should have enough to beat a side who have shown spirit and courage but a lack of flare and decisiveness in their narrow defeat to France and hard-fought victory over Italy.

Last week was Ireland's first real competitive match under Kidney (Canada was more like a training match) and you can expect them to come on a lot for that run out. Munster showed in their defeat to the All Blacks that there is remarkable strength in depth in Irish rugby and everyone will know that their place is under threat from a number of talented youngsters. This combined with the history between these teams and the desire for world cup seeding should make it a tense encounter that Ireland should win by about 7 points.

Recommended Bets
1) Ireland @ [1.6]
2) Ireland HT-FT @ [2.1]
3) Ireland -4 @ [2.0]
4) First score of the game to be a drop goal @ [11.0]

On Saturday, the Contrarian expects Wales [9.0 on Betfair] to end their 55-year wait for victory over the All Blacks. All streaks must end. Here's why:

New Zealand lost in Cardiff last year

While Wales last beat New Zealand 55 years ago, last October the All Blacks lost at the Millennium Stadium - to France in the 2007 World Cup quarter final - the first time they had ever failed to make the World Cup final four. France were then reigning Six Nations champions, a title currently held by Wales. The closest Wales have come to beating the All Blacks since 1953 was four years ago when they narrowly lost 25-26 at the Millennium Stadium a few months before completing the Grand Slam to win the 2005 Six Nations. They also lost by just one point (12-13) in 1978 on the previous occasion that they completed the Six Nations Grand Slam.

New Zealand struggled at the Tri Nations

Although the All Blacks won the Tri Nations for the sixth time in seven years, it went to the wire with New Zealand having to come from behind to beat Australia 28-24 in the final game. This was only the second time in seven years that they lost at least a third of their games and it was on the previous occasion, in 2004, that Wales came within a point of ending their losing streak against them.

Wales may be able to take heart from England

Wales' Kiwi coach Warren Gatland can take can take heart from England's turnaround against southern hemisphere opposition. At the start of Sir Clive Woodward's reign they lost 13 of 14 clashes against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, but once they turned the corner they won 12 in succession.

Wales react strongly after home losses to South Africa

Wales went down fighting against world champions South Africa a fortnight ago and while they didn't pick up the scalp they were hoping for, history suggests they will emerge stronger from that defeat. In 2004, they were beaten 36-38 by the Springboks but then won nine of the next ten games. In 2005, a loss to South Africa was followed by successive wins at the Millennium Stadium, including a 24-22 win over Australia. Wales' last home defeat to the world champions came last November and was followed by a run of five straight victories to seal the Grand Slam at this year's Six Nations. This year's post-South Africa rally got underway with a 34-13 win over Canada last weekend.

Munster exposed New Zealand's vulnerability, Wales are well placed to exploit it

On Tuesday, New Zealand faced Heineken Cup champions Munster, who despite having ten Irish players missing and starting at 33/1 to win, came within minutes of shocking the All Blacks. The Irish side led New Zealand, who started eight players that played the opening tour match against Scotland, 16-10 at half-time and 16-13 with four minutes remaining before a last-gasp try saw them fall to a 16-18 defeat. If Wales start strongly like Munster they are far more likely to capitalise on the advantage, as in each of their last eight home games they have performed stronger in the second-half than they have in the first.

The All Blacks consider Wales their biggest threat

All Blacks captain Richie McCaw has identified Wales as the team they are most likely to slip up against. McCaw said: "Wales will pose the biggest challenge to us physically and, if their front five performs, they have the ability behind to run amok. If you get things wrong against them, you are in for a long day."

So what is Peter de Villiers doing today? South Africa's rugby coach has been telling the world what a good side England are - and that his own players are in a state of "psychological fatigue" after nine months on the rugby treadmill. The 51-year-old came up with that as the reason for a fairly unimpressive performance in their 14-10 win over Scotland at the weekend, and their equally halting display Wales in Cardiff the week before.

"The year's just gone on and on and on - and I'm glad it's coming to an end," he tells this morning's papers. "The players' bodies are not that fatigued, but the psychological fatigue that nobody sees is playing a role now. Five days more and I can go back to my family. That is taking its toll."

It's hardly inspiring talk, and just to add to his doom and gloom, he has also had to send for new players after losing two of his front row forwards, with hooker Bismarck du Plessis and prop Gurthro Steenkamp out because of a torn hamstring and damaged ankle respectively.

De Villiers also has a different view of England's performance against Australia to the rest of the rugby community. "I thought there were some excellent things about them, and although they gave away some bad points early on they showed that Martin Johnson is taking them in the right direction," he said.

Now here comes the decision. Is South Africa's coach being cute and making sure he doesn't wind up England by being so respectfull to Johnson and his men? Is he trying to lull his opponents into a false sense of security? Or is he genuine in his fears that his team are running out of steam?

I'm tempted to go for the latter and back an England win at [2.24] because the South Africans don't have the form to justify an odds-on price of [1.86]. It's also worth noting that Martin Johnson's team had their problems at Twickenham on Saturday against Australia because they gave away penalties rather than were cut apart by tries. Those are problems that can be put right with a week's training and attention to videos.

Johnson is also going to beef up his forwards when he names his team today, according to the Daily Mail's Peter Jackson, who reveals this morning that 18 stone James Haskell is going to make his first start. That's another sign that England can get their scrummaging right and give better ball to the backs to start to play.

Johnno is facing his first big test in how he can bounce back from a defeat. He's due to do his bit of talking about his team today - watch to see how well he gets his message over.

Five things you might not know about Peter de Villiers

1. Born in Eastern Cape province in 1957, he played scrum half for Boland and Griquas during the apartheid era so couldn't be picked for his country

2. He started coaching with amateur club Tygerberg in 1996, and two years later was asked to lead South Africa's Under 19 side

3. Promoted to the Under-21 side, he won the Rugby World Cup at that age level in 2005 which led to him getting the job of replacing 2007 World Cup winner Jake White

4. His appointment as the country's first black coach was still highly controversial - it got through the South African Rugby Union board by 10 votes to nine.

5. He twice threatened to quit until his contract gave him the same pay as his predecessor and the right to pick the team.

Wallaby fly-half Matt Giteau killed off England's hopes as he kept the scoreboard ticking over with seven penalties after the home side's discipline fell apart. It was the highest score a touring side have registered at Twickenham since New Zealand scalped the Red Rose 41-20 in November 2006.

England traded at a low of [1.65] as they went 14-12 up after the interval.

"There were opportunities out there to create try-scoring chances, and we didn't take them," Johnson said ruefully at the post-match press conference. "We gave them kickable penalties and Giteau kicked seven. Test match rugby is generally won by the team that does things the best, and we didn't do that today."

The pre-match build up had focused on England's supposed supremacy in the scrums, but it was not be as Australia pinched two against the head and won a penalty from another.

Man-of -the match Stephen Moore was defiant afterwards: "I had every faith that we would get a result today," the Aussie hooker said. "We have worked really hard on our scrum, so I couldn't care less what was written in the press earlier in the week. We fronted up."

The pre-match perception by many was that points would be scarce and even at half-time, with the score at 12-11 in the Wallabies' favour, it was still far from certain that points would exceed the level set by Betfair at 41.5.

Johnson highlighted why he felt the game was scrappy in the first half: "There was a tremendous amount of resets, and it seemed to slow the game down," said the England manager. "That shut down our opportunities to attack at that part of the game. It was a messy area and slowed the tempo of the game down. It was too stop-start."

But although England scored the first points of the second half - the eighth successive time at HQ - it was Australia who motored away after the interval.

Wallaby skipper Stirling mortlock said: "I was pleased that we came out of the break and hit our straps straight away."

Although Australia only trailed for five minutes in the second-half, shrewd in-running punters were quick to latch onto the value. The Wallabies were matched at a match high of [2.62] in-play, something traders should look out for in the future.

England were unsuccessfully backed at [1.1] to make the most of Betfair's +10.5 handicap line.

Coach Robbie Deans said: ""We got home having led at the break, recently we led the All Blacks twice and hadn't got home, so I'm pleased that the side was resolute this time. We hope to learn from this."

Where now for England though? South Africa come to Middlesex on Saturday and Al Baxter, the Wallaby prop, had this to say: "From my experience, South Africa have some excellent kickers, and if discipline is an issue for England next week, South Africa can punish them from 50-60 meters."

Granted, the Wallabies face New Zealand a lot more than sides from the Northern Hemipshere, in the Tri Nations and the Bledisloe Cup, and that has to help break down the mystique of facing the Kiwis. But even still, their approach should be heeded.

Declan Kidney has picked what he must regard as his strongest side for this game. IRB ranking points are very much up for grabs, not to mention the possibility of Ireland's first ever win against New Zealand.

For that reason it comes as no real surprise to see the likes of David Wallace, Rory Best and Girvan Dempsey back in the mix - although Rob Kearney has certainly been making his case for the 15 shirt for some time now.

Alan Quinlan's inclusion at blindside flanker is just reward for a man who has been so unlucky throughout his international career thus far. His physicality, which was a huge part of Munsters Heineken Cup success last season, will be greatly needed and Quinlan, Wallace and Heaslip are going to have to be at their very best to deal with the New Zealand back row - and in particular Richie McCaw.

If Ireland are going to win this game they've got to believe they can do it. Take each player man for man and I don't doubt Ireland can match - or even better - New Zealand in almost every single position. Ronan O'Gara against Dan Carter, Paul O'Connell against Ali Williams, Brian O'Driscoll against Conrad Smith - right across the park they have the strength to go and win this game.

If Kidney can do what he does best and have each player focused on their job, then Ireland are going to give the Kiwi's one hell of a game. A huge part of putting in a great performance is having the mental strength and self belief before you even step on to the pitch. That has been missing in the Ireland camp for quite some time now but if anyone can get it right, it's Declan Kidney.

Obviously there's a reason Ireland have never beaten New Zealand. They are still the powerhouse of world rugby. They don't like to lose and will throw everything at you for 80 plus minutes to make sure that doesn't happen.

New Zealand are not unbeatable though. France have proved it on the biggest stage. I was in Cardiff for their World Cup triumph last year and it was amazing to watch. They strangled them up front and stifled them in the backline. They hounded and dogged them all around the park and point blank refused to let up. Ireland will have to do the same at Croke Park on Saturday. What's more, they must believe they can do it. There's something brewing in the Ireland camp these days - a smile on the player's faces, a confidence in their ability. I believe Ireland can run these guys pretty close, and deep down, I think the players believe it too.

Recommendation: 2 points Ireland +13.5pts to beat New Zealand @ [1.8] on Betfair.

For the first time in his coaching career Smith is under real pressure. And the former Leeds coach, twice a Grand Final winner with the Rhinos, doesn't like it.

The usually mild-mannered, compellingly engaging Aussie, has been uncharacteristically evasive of the media this week. Stung by criticism of his much-hyped squad's hugely uninspiring World Cup thus far, Smith has closed ranks.

A wobbly opening against Papua New Guinea, a non-performance against Australia, and a woeful second-half collapse against New Zealand is a million miles from what I, and many more of my colleagues in the rugby league press, expected from this hugely talented and versatile squad composed by a coach renowned for his winning mentality.

"We've got a lot of faith in ourselves. We always have. It's only the people outside the group that have any doubt," he told us this week.

I'm a massive fan of Smithy, always have been, and no matter how tempting, and how easy, and perhaps how deserving, I am not going to get on his back now. There is, as Tony assures me, a top quality side lurking somewhere in the shadows of this stuttering squad, and we owe a man of his pedigree the chance to prove himself right. Such is the nature of this competition, that despite England's indifference to date, just one powerful 80 minutes this weekend can prove the dividing line between abject failure and a World Cup final.

The manner of England's first-half display against New Zealand in last week's dress rehearsal is reason enough for semi-final optimism. Having rung the changes, Smith watched his new-look side play the Kiwis off the park in 40 sparkling minutes, with Rob Burrow dazzling in the halves, and the forwards finally winning an arm wrestle. Betfair punters who followed my lead to back England to score the first try and then lose by 12 points on the nose, will have been buying the beers for the rest of the weekend.

I see this semi-final being even closer, but both my own patriotism, and my knowledge of Smith's immense pride as a coach, make me sway towards victory for much-maligned England, who are [2.76] with Betfair to finally get it right and reach the World Cup final. For those who believe my loyalty to this bunch of guys may be clouding my judgement and fancy my successful tip of last weekend to repeat itself, then I would guide Betfair punters towards an England half-time - New Zealand full-time victory bet at [8.2].

However, if England do get to the break ahead again in Brisbane I expect the lesson will have been learned.

While Smith keeps his selection cards close to his chest, seemingly throwing up a smokescreen by omitting Super League's top tryscorer Ade Gardner and Leeds Rhinos livewire Danny McGuire from his initial squad, the Kiwis have sprung a surprise positional change.

Tommy Leuluai moves from scrum-half to hooker after a poor World Cup, and his speed from dummy half could prove a key factor in the game. This gives Smith a decision to make as regards whether to start with the equally sharp James Roby at hooker, knowing that he struggles to play the full 80, or keep faith with Micky Higham - a rare shining light last week.

The depth of the pack still worries me in the absence through injury of Maurie Fa'asavalu, but this is the moment for the experienced heads of Jamie Peacock and Adrian Morley to stand up and guide England through.

With one hand on my heart and the other crossing its fingers, I'm going for an England win by 6-12 points. This is the toughest test of Tony Smith's coaching career and I am backing him to come through it.

If I am wrong and England bow out with a whimper, then this would represent one of England's most shambolic ever appearances on the international stage.

Over the years sides have stood in the faces of the Kiwi players as they did their dance and tried to stare them down. They have watched from their own distance. They have formed their own circle and tried to ignore it. And famously at one game in Wellington in 1996 the Australians got on with a warm-up drill while it was going on, and then got beaten by a record score.

However you treat it, there's no doubt that the Haka gives any All Blacks side a psychological advantage at the start of a game. Which brings us to England's Rugby League World Cup side, and how they plan to deal with the stirring old war dance tomorrow morning in the semi-final.

Last week Tony Smith ordered his men to go into their own huddle and ignore the Haka. It caused a storm, but didn't seem to do England much harm as they romped into a 24-8 lead with some outstanding attacking play and a couple of quite dazzling tries. (Now I cannot tell a lie, having recommended backing England to win last week at odds of [2.52] I bottled it at that stage and laid them in running at [1.2] - which proved to be a very good decision as the second half went to pieces).

This week having suffered a barrage of criticism, Smith's side say they will front up to the Haka and give it respect by staring it down. That worries me, because it means that the stick that's been flying since they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory has got to the players. What they really need to do tomorrow morning is be strong to their own ideas, and if they thought going into a huddle and ignoring the Haka was the right thing to do last week, then it's still the right thing to do this time. Can you imagine a Sir Alex Ferguson team changing it's approach to a game because the papers didn't like it? No. Then why should any other?

That said there were signs in last week's match that England could yet turn this World Cup on its head, and I quite fancy going for the [2.7] on offer this morning for Smith's side to win. They will have learned some lessons from the slack second half display, and the attitude from a knock-out game - as opposed to a fairly meaningless pool match when both teams were guaranteed to get through - will be very much more alert. Mind you, whoever wins it won't stop Australia collecting the trophy. You can't even back them to win their semi-final against Fiji, and they are [1.16] to be World Cup winners.

Incidentally there's very little attention to how Ireland will deal with the Haka when they face the All Blacks at Rugby Union tomorrow evening. Ireland are as long as [5.5] to win so perhaps a machine gun might be the best answer!

Five things you might not know about the Haka

1.According to Maori legend it was created by Tana-rore, son of the Sun god Ra, to please his mother Tama-nui-te-ra

2.The earliest pictures of Maori warriors performing the dance before going into battle are as recent as 1845

3.The first New Zealand rugby union team to tour overseas in Australia in 1884 performed the Haka and it became a tradition from then on

4.The version traditionally used by the All Blacks, "Ka Mate", is not an intimidating war dance at all but a celebration of life over death

5.A new version "Kapa O Pango" was created in 2005 with words more specific to sporting contest, but a final movement that was a throat slitting action. This has subsequently been modified after protests that it was too violent

Warren Gatland's side had the most possession, they beat over double the amount of defenders, missed fewer tackles by far, and had 58% of the territory. There were, however, three deficiencies in their stats that tell pretty much the whole story. Firstly, Wales made almost twice the amount of meters in the game, but conceded 17 turnovers to South Africa's ten. They lost twice as many line-outs, too. The fact that South Africa put in almost double the amount of tackles than their hosts suggests that they were happy to let the Welsh come at them, tackle them to standstill, and then turnover the ball and run it back. It is a simple gameplan, and one which suggests that Wales could be a bet on the handicap against Canada on Friday, and South Africa might not be against Scotland on Saturday.

The Springboks cannot afford to play a similar way against a Scottish team that defends through habit. If they sit back and absorb pressure against Frank Hadden's men, punters might as well sell points for their maximum, as the scoreline is likely to make up very low.

South Africa are going to have to go out and play. We all know that backing Scotland on the handicap at Murrayfield is no fun, but we also know that at home they are capable of putting in a decent performance, and they have been handicap winners there in recent years more often than they have been losers. Scotland are trading at [10.5] on Betfair at the moment and the early handicap lines suggest a 15-17 point start for Frank Hadden's men.

And there is every reason to suggest that Scotland should start this game well. They have scored the first points of the match in six of their last seven games at home, while the Springboks have struggled early on recently under coach Peter de Villiers, scoring the first points just four times in 11 games. Sure, they touched down first against Wales last week, but the Welsh machine rarely gets going until the second half.

Wales will continue to play their fast and loose game against the Canadians, who put in a shocker against Ireland last weekend. The handicap with the regular bookies was around 33 in the Canadians favour, although early lines suggest that it could be as high as 43 on Friday. The pitch in Limerick was in a complete state though, and although I have absolutely no proof of this whatsoever, I would like to say that those conditions clearly favoured the Irish. Rugby trader Brian Cusack suggested last week that he would have installed Ireland as 40-point favourites had the weather been better.

Wales have a tremendous recent record of putting dire teams to the sword. They thrashed Japan 72-18 at the World Cup last year and beat Canada 61-26 in 2006. Japan were the source of another steam-rollering in 2004 when the Cherry Blossoms were plucked 98-0, while in the same year Romania were beaten 66-7. It doesn't look good for Canada.

Ireland have a good record against the All Blacks over the last few years, losing their last three games against Graham Henry's side by 10, 10 and 11 points. They have been impressive, too, since Declan Kidney, the former Munster coach, took charge of the national side in the summer.

Punters may also look at the composite parts of the All Blacks starting line-up and consider it not really up to much. Sure on paper it looks very strong, boasting 347 caps in the pack and 271 in the backline. Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith are decent players in their own right, and together they should provide the perfect bludgeon and rapier combination in the centres, but the jury remains out about them as a pair.

The back three of Sitiveni Sivivatu, Joe Rokocoko and Mils Muliaina at its best is lethal, but all of them are ring-rusty. Sivivatu has scored three tries in 10 Tests this year, which is a pitiful return when compared to his strike-rate of a try a game in previous years. Muliaina has been off for several weeks tending to his new-born child, while Joe Rokocoko is still feeling his way back from injury.

I like the chances of Ireland, and the arguments for them are impressive. The only problem I have though, is the price and at [4.7], which equates to a handicap of around 10 points, I can't touch them with a barge pole.

This may not be a vintage New Zealand side, but the 2005 Grand Slam winners apart, no touring side from the southern hemisphere is. New Zealand have a good record of thrashing Six Nations teams in November internationals, and despite Kidney's new dawn, I had this match at something like 13-14 points.

Take yourself to your favourite chair, and have a real think. What do you come up with? Flanker George Smith. One of the best open-sides in the world, one who can slow ball down at will and create turnovers from virtually nothing. Next up is an exciting and capable backline, which has the nuts and bolts to trouble the best teams. Finally, or perhaps firstly, in most people's minds, is their weak and pathetic front row.

In choosing Al Baxter to uphold the Wallaby scrum, coach Robbie Deans has consigned one of the bravest, but most ill-equipped props in world rugby to an afternoon of pure torture. The last time England's Andrew Sheridan met Baxter, the Aussie had just come on in the World Cup quarter-final in place of the departing Guy Shephardson. Baxter fared pretty poorly against Sheridan's significant might. The time before that, Baxter was pummelled into the Twickenham turf by Sheridan, so much so that the poor guy was sent to the sin-bin for collapsing the scrum one too many times.

Australia will be comprehensively out-pointed in the scrum on Saturday. They will attempt to slow England's ball down through a mixture of George Smith's dark arts and a shepherding defence. They will hope that their illustrious back-line can score enough points to keep them in the game, through counter-attacking with turnover ball.

So in summary, have you thought of any new dimension that the Wallabies will bring to Twickenham on Saturday that previous England teams haven't had to contend with? Because if you can't, then England are likely to repeat the five wins they have accumulated in the last six encounters in the northern hemisphere between these two. England currently trade at [1.93] in the match betting market, with Australia [2.16].

England's ball was hilariously slow against the Pacific Islanders last weekend, and the usually sprightly flanker Tom Rees was virtually nowhere to be seen. Rees simply cannot afford to go AWOL against Smith on Saturday, otherwise England's scrum dominance will be for naught.

England coach Martin Johnson has revealed his hand slightly by choosing Wasps locks Tom Palmer and Simon Shaw, who is on the bench. Nick Kennedy put in a solid show last weekend against the Pacific Islanders, but it would be fair to say that he lacked real grunt, which is a pre-requisite for duffing up Australia.

Johnson has quite clearly named a pack that he believes can also monster Australia in the loose. Deans has included two hulking back-row forwards on his bench in a bid to counteract that threat.

What may be worth a look therefore, is the total points market. There is a chance that this is going to develop into a real arm-wrestle, despite both three-quarter lines boasting an impressive array of attacking talent. The last six games in the northern hemisphere played between these teams average a total points make-up of just 40.6 and it must be remembered that England only conceded a charge-down try against the Pacific Islanders last week. It's not much to go on, sure, but it showed defensive intent.

This Cook Cup fixture is always fiercely contested, and in the sample of games just mentioned, neither team has managed to beat the other by more than ten points. England to win by less than 12.5 points on Betfair is currently [2.3], a price which looks sure to drift.

In-running traders get no help with regards to who might build up an early lead either. Although England have opened the scoring with a penalty in nine of their last 11 games at HQ, the Aussies are no slouches when getting on the score-sheet first, having done so in their last five away games, four of which have been under the coaching of Deans.

If Australia are to win this game, Deans needs to come up with a sure-fire way of destabilising England's scrum. It certainly isn't beyond them, because they did it against South Africa and New Zealand at times during the Tri-Nations. This is a different test, however. Australia have never been the best of tourists to the northern hemisphere, and at just under evens, Johnson's side looks the call for me.

The ones who love it stay around however much money they've made. The ones who don't soon grow tired of the sheer, gruelling hard work needed to stay fit enough. So there's little doubt that when Phil Vickery talks today about his burning ambition to go on playing for England he fits very firmly into the first category.

At 32, "Raging Bull" has fought his way back from enough serious injuries to have put most people in a wheelchair. He's had three back operations, two concussions, and hardly a bone in his body that's not been damaged in some way. He's been given - and then lost - the honour of being England captain but he's still around to win his 66th cap at Twickenham on Saturday when England play Australia.

Vickery was supposed to be being eased out last week when Matt Stevens was picked ahead of him for the win over the Pacific Islands. That lasted one game and the veteran who scrimmaged alongside manager Martin Johnson in the 2003 World Cup win is back for more.

"When I sing our national anthem I bloody mean it," he tells the Sun's Tony Roche this morning.

"I'll still feel the butterflies. That will never change, the passion for England.

"I've been through a hell of a lot down the years, incredible highs, soul numbing lows. But I love the game so much and intend battling on until that emotion is replaced by old age.

"Of course I was disappointed when the captaincy was taken away from me. I was so proud to lead England.

"But I'm in a real battle with Matt Stevens for the number three jersey so there was no sulking. I never saw the honour of captaincy as something personal to preen about - it's about the team and your country."

That sounds not unlike what David Beckham had to say about giving up his job as England captain! The difference is with the rugged Vickery you tend to believe him. And if you don't you certainly won't tell the 6ft 3ins, 19 and a half stone monster to his face!

Martin Johnson's time as captain was marked by a rage for perfection and it's a sign of his same one-eyed approach as a manager that he's made a couple of changes after last week's first win in charge.

He's also given a message to his other prop Andrew Sheridan that last week's performance wasn't good enough and needs to be improved. Vickery and Sheridan are two of only four survivors in the team from the side that produced a shock 12-10 win over the Aussies in the World Cup last October and need to be bang on their game again.

If they are then that should supply enough good possession to help the emerging talent of Danny Cipriani blossom again - and make England decent value for a win at [2.04]. With one already under the belt, you can back Johnson to start his management career by winning all four Autumn internationals at [10.0]. It's a tempting punt.

Five things you might not know about Phil Vickery

1. Known as a proud Cornishman, with parents from Bude, he was actually born in Barnstaple in Devon

2. He followed his dad as a farmer and ran the cattle insemination unit - which led to his "Raging Bull" nickname when he left Redruth to join Gloucester

3. He had played only 34 club games when he got his England debut aged 21, and was captain for the first time on the tour to Argentina in 2002

4. He has an oriental tattoo which translates as "I'll fight you to death"

5. He doesn't do political correctness. His Raging Bull range of leisure clothing has a "moody cow" range for women.

The man-of-the-match accolade went to Delon Armitage, one of four new caps, and there were starring roles from the other greenhorns. London Irish team-mate Nick Kennedy was instrumental in the line-out, scoring from the set-piece in the 44th minute, and Riki Flutey and Ugo Monye put in the hard yards with panache.

Johnson was pretty happy with the result in the post-match press conference, highlighting his side's defensive performance.

"We won the game in difficult conditions. The game was stop start and we were a little bit tentative, which is understandable given that we haven't been together long, and five of the squad were getting their first caps," he said.

"I thought we defended pretty well - we conceded one try - which was a charge-down, so I'm pretty happy about that."

One combination that the England coaches felt worked particularly well was the back three. Assistant coach Brian Smith said afterwards: "I thought the back-three were outstanding. At times 9 (Danny Care) and 10 (Danny Cipriani) were good, sometimes they were bad, but they don't play together at club level, so that is fair."

One of the back-three, Paul Sackey, scored two tries, and his 14th-minute touchdown was the fifth time he had opened the try-scoring for his team in his 16-game career. Punters should look at him in detail over the next few weeks, particularly in the 'to score first for their team' market.

Another of the back-three who merited a mention was Delon Armitage, who scooped the man-of-the-match award. Johnson continued: "Delon has trained really well this week, and we just hoped he could perform at the highest level in his first test match, I thought he did."

Smith, who used to train Armitage at London Irish also lavished praise on the 24-year-old full-back. He said: "Basically you play the way you train, and he has trained very well this week."

In the build-up to this fixture, many saw the London Irish back as a bit of a leftfield choice, and they believed that he was surely only in the Red Rose XV due to the injuries to Bath's Nick Abendanon and Josh Lewsey's lack of form. Smith put the record straight, however.

"Delon wasn't in the original 64 [Elite player squad] because he was injured at the end of last season. I remember the selection meeting, and I said that this could be the best thing for him. Leave him out, and let him fight his way back in. He took that opportunity well."

Punters may also have noted that England scored the first points of the match yesterday, through Danny Cipriani's 14th minute penalty. They have done so now in nine of their last 11 performances at Twickenham. It could be a useful source of revenue over the next few weeks as England start to size up the Tri-Nations teams due to come to Twickenham.

"There's a lot of hoopla about my first game in charge, but I hope that is out of the way now," said Johnson.

"I think the guys understand that next week is going to be of a higher tempo, and more intense. I think it will be good for us to go out and play a team like Australia."

"It may be easier for us to play against the Wallabies because we know who they are, we know a bit more about them, and the intensity will be higher."

Leading 24-8, Tony Smith's men conceded 24 unanswered points to tumble to a second consecutive loss.

Some Betfair customers were so convinced by England's supremacy they were willing to back at a low of [1.15]. New Zealand were matched aty a high of [8.4].

The two teams meet again in the semi-final next Saturday.

That 52-4 Aussie humbling represented England's worst ever defeat in a World Cup. The outcome may not have been a surprise, but the manner of the defeat was a stunning setback to Tony Smith's preparations.

I spoke to Tony on Friday morning, just 24 hours before their clash with the Kiwis, and he was his trademark spirited self. Smith is adamant that there is a top-quality England side hiding in the shadows of two awful displays, and expects an immediate response.

While that may be just what England need, the omens appear grim. Smith's hand has been forced by injury. After gambling by naming only four prop forwards in his squad, Smith is now down to three after a broken finger ended Maurie Fa'asavalu's tournament. And with one eye on a probable semi-final with New Zealand, Smith has gambled by keeping some key players fresh, blooding some new names, and hoping the Kiwis aren't in the same vicious mood as Australia were at Melbourne's Telstra Dome.

There will be first appearances of the tournament for the likes of Jamie Jones-Buchanan and Harlequins captain Rob Purdham as England (2.52) seek a morale-boosting win. I fear New Zealand (1.7) will be too strong for a much-changed England, but remain optimistic that we will finally see England unleashed in the semis.

With both sides bidding to preserve themselves for a rerun of this fixture in the last four, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lack of intensity on both sides. Yes, England badly need a positive performance to banish the memory of the walloping by Australia, but one eye surely must be on the last four.

That said, the indifference shown in the first two games means places are up for grabs for that Kiwis semi-final. Rob Burrow and Danny McGuire need to find their spark in the halves, and McGuire could well push his claim with Leon Pryce carrying an injury. Centre Paul Sykes and forwards Ben Westwood, Purdham, Jones-Buchanan, Mickey Higham and Jamie Langley are all set for run-outs, and the carrot of a semi-final place should up England's tempo.

England to score the first try would be shrewd, although I expect New Zealand to prevail by a couple of scores. I'm hoping for big performances on the wing from Mark Calderwood, who had a shocker against Australia, and Lee Smith who returns from injury looking to add to his debut hat-trick against Papua New Guinea.

We should finally start to see what this England side is capable of, but the Kiwis with the dangerous Lance Hohaia and Tommy Leuluai look to have too much firepower. I'd take New Zealand by 12 points to overcome a much-improved England side, to set up a perfectly poised semi-final between the two sides next weekend.