Guinness Premiership Round Nine Betting Preview: Bath attack v Sale defence, which will prevail?

Guinness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 18 December 2008 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Geoffrey Riddle looks ahead to the Sky-televised clash between Sale and Bath, where two teams with very contrasting styles come together in a battle to keep pace with London Irish and Gloucester at the top.

It's odd to think that you would ever pine for the regularity of the Premiership. After a hectic seven weeks, which has taken in the November internationals, the Heineken Cup and the EDF Energy Cup, we are back with the good old league.

I appreciate that games have been played during the autumn window, but focus can be directed solely on the Premiership, and what a weekend it promises to be. The top two teams, London Irish and Gloucester, take each other on in Reading, while third-placed Bath receive Sale, who are one spot below them.

It's not as if the other games lack intrigue either. The London clubs of Wasps and Sarries go head-to-head, Quins try to keep their momentum going at Franklin's Gardens and Worcester hope to prove they are a cut above relegation fodder Bristol at Sixways.

Sky have decided to screen Sale's trip to the Recreation Ground, and what punters need to establish here is whether Bath's attack, or Sale's defence will prevail.

Bath's matches this season have generated the most points in the Premiership. The West Country side have scored 23 tries (joint-most with Harlequins), and conceded 16. It's only natural given their all-out attacking style, which their Aussie coach, Steve Meehan, has drilled into the squad.

Their game plan is broadly based on the template employed by the Tri-Nations, whereby Bath rely on a destructive tackling game in order to counter-attack in to space. I have touched on this before, but it is no co-incidence that Bath top this season's Opta stats for: most tackles, most passes, most carries, most metres made, and most clean breaks.

Sale top just three sections of Opta's comprehensive stats package. The two most important are: most kicks from hand and most line-outs won. Philippe Saint-Andre has long realised that his fly-half of choice, Charlie Hodgson, is one of the best tactical kickers in the game. Sale's territorial-based strategy is the reason why their games are so low scoring - remember, they went four whole games at the start of the season without conceding a try.

Interestingly, when Sale came up against London Irish at the Madejski in October, many thought that the Exiles' running game would run in to problems against Sale's mean defence.

What happened though, was least expected. Irish coach Toby Booth, whom I now understand is a shrewd man if there ever was one, fielded regular full-back Peter Hewat at fly-half. Hewat pinned Sale back into their own half with a series of long-rangers kicked from hand. Admittedly, the Exiles made the early in-roads while Sale's Chris Bell was in the sin-bin, but what won the game for London Irish was their adaptability.

Can Bath change their game plan for this contest? If they don't they are going to spend a lot of the match camped in their own half, tackling like mad, and trying to turnover ball. It could prove a tiring task, and one which may offer Sale a sneaking chance at the end of the match.

As far as the handicap is concerned, my bookie moles suggest that their lines will be somewhere in the region of a five-point start for the visitors. That roughly equates to match odds of around [1.55] Bath and [2.3] Sale. Given that this has been such a close fixture over the years, and one in which Sharks have generally done the better, I think Sale with a start looks a decent wager.