Guinness Premiership Betting: Gloucester on the up

Guinness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 19 February 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Sir Ian McGeechan has come into assist on the coaching side with Gloucester

Geoffrey Riddle talks us through the big matches in the Guinness Premiershp this weekend as the Six Nations takes a break...

It's a crying shame that Leicester's monumental clash with a resurgent Gloucester is not on Sky this weekend. Forgetting the vagaries of media contracts and quotas, the match-up between these two traditional rugby powerhouses at Welford Road would have been a joy to watch. For too long this season Gloucester have been stewing in their own insecurities, racked by self-doubt and markedly affected by injuries. And yet, it has all clicked in quite marvellous fashion over the past fortnight. The Cherry and Whites swatted aside Harlequins in their double header, beating them at the Stoop 31-28 in a cup tie, before following up last weekend in the league with an imperious 46-6 victory at Kingsholm.

It would be churlish to attribute this rapid improvement solely to the presence of Sir Ian McGeechan, who announced on February 11th that he was going to help out Gloucester coach and fellow Scot Bryan Redpath. Redpath has been toiling away all season, trying to lift and inspire his troops, but despite the message having finally hit home, the veneer of self-belief is only paper thin. A few days ago, Redpath was discussing the Leicester fixture and the improvement in his side's away form. Their win at the Stoop was just their third road victory in 18 starts away from Kingsholm, and the former Scotland scrum-half said that he hoped to avoid defeat from now until the Premiership playoffs. It's an interesting insight into the fragile mentality down at Gloucester still. Sport is about winning, not avoiding defeat. It's a subtle difference, but a difference that will always divide the wheat from the chaff in elite sport.

Redpath was savvy enough to realise that last week's victory was heavily reliant on the opposition under-performing, and four of Gloucester's six tries derived directly from Quins' errors. But Gloucester at least take a solid scrum and a decent lineout to Welford Road, and in Gareth Delve they have a skipper who is leading from the front. Last week the hulking Welsh No.8 had a heavy dose of cramp, but having intercepted a stray pass, Delve had the wherewithal to gallop 50m and offload to James Simpson-Daniel for try number five.

Teams of Gloucester's calibre can generally rely on a double-figure handicap when they enter the Tigers' lair, where Leicester are now unbeaten in 27 consecutive matches. And they generally receive a double-figure beating, too, as the recent 27-11 defeat of Bath and the 34-8 steamrollering of Wasps testifies. I'd be surprised if the visitors were given more than a ten-point start, though. Gloucester are in an attacking frame of mind at the moment and with a little spark from McGeechan, they can at least serve it up to Leicester. As a result, the overs in the total points market for this game may be worth looking into. Richard Cockerill's home side average 33 points at home since the start of 2009, with the opposition registering a paltry average of just over 12. If Gloucester do indeed play their part, however, anything over 40-42, could be worth a little investment.

In the live game at Kingston Park between Newcastle and London Irish, I'm struggling to come up with a favourite.

Newcastle haven't won in three matches, and the Exiles are winless in 2010. On ratings and figures, I'd marginally prefer London Irish, but last week's defeat at Bath was the first time under Toby Booth that London Irish failed to register at least a bonus point, and it is clear they are struggling with all of their injuries. As you can see from the list below, Steffon Armitage and Paul Hodgson, the heartbeat of any side, return from England duty, which means Booth has 28 players from which to choose a matchday 23. It's not a big selection headache that he has got, and I think I'll probably just play the percentages on this one and hope to lay both sides at odds-on at some point.

England EPS players returning to their club sides this weekend.
Lee Mears (Bath Rugby)
Matthew Mullan (Worcester Warriors)
Steffon Armitage (London Irish)
Chris Ashton (Northampton Saints)
Matt Banahan (Bath Rugby)
Jordan Crane (Leicester Tigers)
Louis Deacon (Leicester Tigers)
Ben Foden (Northampton Saints)
Toby Flood (Leicester Tigers)
Shontayne Hape (Bath Rugby)
Dan Hipkiss (Leicester Tigers)
Paul Hodgson (London Irish)
Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints)
Chris Robshaw (Harlequins)
Dan Ward-Smith (London Wasps)
David Wilson (Bath Rugby)
Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)

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