Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 14 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Having tipped up Leicester's progress to the final, Geoffrey Riddle advises his loyal followers to jump ship at their current odds with London Irish a very dangerous outfit to have to face.

One of the best things about Betfair is the ability to trade. To trade successfully you've got to know when to stay in, or when you are being offered value to get out. With that in mind, I suggested that Leicester were a decent trading proposition at [2.32] for the Grand Final last week ahead of their semi-final clash with Bath. It would be fair to say, however, that at around [1.55], the Tigers have got too short for the Guinness Premiership final against London Irish this Saturday and it may be time to bail out.

I had envisaged Leicester to be around [1.67] and given that London Irish have a splendid record of getting close to the top six teams away from home this season, on Twickenham's neutral turf, there is no way they should be as big as [2.8].

There is also the small matter of Leicester's shoddy record in this fixture. This is the fifth time in succession that they have reached the Grand Final, and so far they've only won it once. I generally stay away from the term 'choke' in team sports, because there are so often other contributing factors, but Gloucester have lost the same amount of times as the Tigers in the playoffs and they've been called some nasty names in the past.

On the plus side, Leicester have nudged the scoreboard in both confrontations between the two teams this season, winning 24-22 at Welford Road in September, and the more noticeable 31-28 win in Reading in March.

But as coach Toby Booth said at the Exiles' Sunbury training ground earlier this week, this is not such a big deal. "I wouldn't read too much into that defeat," he said of the Madejski humbling. "The line-ups are going to be very different and if a week is a long time in politics, then over a month is an absolute age in rugby."

And he may well be right. Irish were on a Guinness Premiership barren run when they encountered the Tigers that day, having failed to win a league match for two months. Six Nations call-ups as well as the absence of skipper Bob Casey all contributed to a mid-season slump, something that Irish have dragged themselves out of. Booth's men march into the final having won five of their last six fixtures, a streak which culminated in the 17-0 dismantling of Harlequins at The Stoop last weekend.

Although the Exiles leaked the fewest points in the league this season, it is their attack that Booth seems to be most proud of. "We believe here that good will triumph over evil, in that attack will always beat defence," he said. "Everyone knows that we like to score, and from a try-scoring point of view, we have topped the pile."

Irish scored 64 tries this season, and if you like stats you should look here as an insight into how this weekend's clash might pan out. As you can see, Irish have beaten the third most defenders in the league. Leicester also feature highly in the attacking rugby stats, topping the pile for the most clean breaks as well as finishing second in most passes and metres made.

These stats may indicate that we are in for a classic final, full of flowing, champagne rugby. But consider Booth's words before clicking on the blue background on the 'overs' in the total points market.
"The crux of last week's effort was down to defence in the first 20 minutes. It is about not conceding first, and then taking your opportunities when they present themselves."

Last week, Will Greenwood said on Sky Sports at half-time that it was the best nil-nil game of rugby he had ever seen. It Booth gets his way on Saturday, Leicester will find it very difficult to break down the Irish early on. The Exiles boast one of the best second-half records in the league, and if the Tigers are within striking distance at the interval, Irish have the wherewithal to finish them off after the break.