Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 January 2009 / Leave a comment

The starts the New Year with a real buzz as the heavyweight duo of Leicester and Wasps receive Bath and Harlequins respectively. Both matches are on Sunday, and both are on Sky Sports so there should be decent liquidity, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

A lot has been made of Wasps' incredibly poor season so far, and the table makes clear that they are having a worse start than last year.

After 10 games last season, Wasps had 23 points on the board before they embarked on their remarkable rise to the play-offs. This year they have a lot more work to do as they only have 16 points at the moment. Wasps boast four losing bonus points from their seven losses this season, however, which may indicate that things need tweaking rather than drastic action.

Coach Ian McGeechan never really seems fazed by any of this, well, not in media interviews anyway. McGeechan's calmness and clear thinking will be will be crucial to Wasps' chances of making the play-offs once more, although Betfair traders think this is rather unlikely, given that Wasps trade at around [14.0] to win the Grand Final.

It is probably fair that Wasps are installed as favourites for their clash with Harlequins at Adams Park and they will probably trade at around [1.6] before kick-off. McGeechan's hands were tied last week when he put out a weakened side that were thrashed by Sale. This was due to the Elite Player Squad agreement that requires internationals to be rested for a match in rounds nine to 11.

That rules out prop Tim Payne this weekend, although Josh Lewsey, Tom Palmer and Joe Worsley are absent due to injury. McGeechan can therefore rely on most of his big guns for this acid test, but Harlequins travel with virtually their strongest team, too.

Potentially the most interesting market is Total Points. Harlequins' matches in the league this season have been the second-highest scoring only to league-leaders Bath. Quins average 44.7 points per game so far, while Wasps average 400. A fortnight ago, Wasps put a pretty strong side out to face Saracens and ended up winning 33-24 against Eddie Jones' Men in Black.

The total points market for this is likely to be pitched at around the 41 mark, and to me, that looks on the low side. With conditions forecast to be bright, the scores could well rack up as both sides attack with verve and I think 43.5-44.5 would be a more accurate reflection of both side's points scoring abilities.

Bath have a sensational record away from the Recreation Ground this season, but if you look at Bath's record over the last month it is nothing really to brag about. They started December off with two narrow victories over Glasgow in the Heineken Cup, before struggling past Sale and Northampton at home. Leicester have been slightly more impressive having beaten Perpignan at Welford Road, before flattening Newcastle there, and drawing 26-26 with Quins in a thrilling tie at Twickenham a few days ago.

I must admit, I'm not the biggest fan of this current crop of Leicester Tigers, but head coach Heyneke Meyer has named a fearsome looking pack. We saw just before Christmas what a confrontational bunch of forwards can do to Bath when a Sebastien Chabal-inspired Sale got underneath their skin. It knocked Bath completely out of their rhythm, and they were lucky to win the match 24-20.

There is no better side than Leicester for sheer cussedness, and if they can disrupt Bath, they will have Steve Meehan's men at their mercy. I just can't have Leicester so short, however. I priced up this game as something like Leicester [1.53] and Bath [2.4], but at the time of writing Skybet went up 2-1 Bath. I'm quite sure that Bath will trade shorter than [3.0] at some point during this game, but if you do want to back Leicester, I reckon Betfair's 1-12 point winning margin may the best way to side with the home team.

Of the four Saturday games, it is Worcester v Sale that interests me most. When Sale lost to Worcester at Edgeley Park in November, it was the Sharks' sixth defeat in seven matches. Since that loss, Philippe Saint-Andre has breathed new life into his squad, and Sale have gone on to beat Wasps both home and away, while also beating Leicester and narrowly losing to Bath.

Worcester have not been at their best recently, and their two consecutive draws with fellow relegation battlers Bristol and Newcastle cannot have done their confidence much good. Sale have won their last three fixtures down at Sixways, and with Worcester slightly out of their stride over the last month, this could be a good opportunity for the Sharks.