Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 11 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle is staggered that Sarries are hot favourites to defeat Saints. Meanwhile, unlike last weekend, the second round of fixtures should provide some big scores...

"Although it is far too early to be making any conclusions from just half a dozen games, rugby punters should be mindful of the fact that all of last week’s matches were low-scoring."

Wembley's hallowed turf becomes the 28th venue to host Premiership rugby this weekend as Saracens try to propagate a mass audience for Brendon Venter's new dawn.

It is hoped that Sarries' match-up with Northampton will push the number of people to have watched the Men in Black in the opening fortnight of the new Premiership season to 100,000. The only problem is that it could all go horribly wrong for the Vicarage Road outfit.

I don't really have a strong opinion on this fixture, but betting being what it is, I find it staggering that the early lines on Betfair suggest that Northampton will be significant underdogs for this fixture. Look at the facts. The Saints beat this weekend's opponents twice last season, and they have recruited strategically to enhance their side in comparison to Venter's mass hiring and firing. Coach Jim Mallinder has presided over six wins in the last seven going back to last season and if anything, the momentum is with Northampton.

Furthermore, you've got to look at the pre-season betting. Coral, the high-street layer, made Northampton 4-6 favourites in a season matchbet, while Ladbrokes allocated Northampton 57.5 points for the league season and Sarries just 51.5 points.

Quite clearly every major layer worth his salt believed that Northampton were a better team over time than Sarries, so why the change of tack after just one fixture?

Admittedly, this is a contest over just 80 minutes, but even on the evidence of last week's showings there is nothing to suggest that Sarries should be anything shorter than [1.9] against Northampton. This is not a home game for them.

Venter's side showed that all of their pre-season efforts had paid off at Twickenham last week after they raced into an 18-3 lead against London Irish. The Exiles, however, repeatedly spurned their opportunities to exert pressure on their opponents and Ryan Lamb's poor kicking at goal meant Irish gave up 11 points.

Northampton on the other hand were shocking for the first 40 minutes against Worcester, going into the break 17-0 down at Franklin's Gardens. They were repeatedly hustled and harangued up front by the big Worcester pack, and indeed Paul Diggin's winning try was only a result Northampton having to go wide because Worcester's bully-boy forwards had brought them to a standstill.

Sarries were also hounded last week by Irish's eight though, and scrum-half Neil de Kock was continually caught out around the fringes. The way that Irish No.8 George Stowers steamrollered over the tryline on Saturday also highlights that Sarries' pack may struggle to deal with the power of the tyro back-rower Courtney Lawes. If you don't know much about Saints' best-kept secret, you should look at what he can do here.

In round one both Stephen Myler and Shane Geraghty showed how prolific they could be in partnership and Geraghty displayed a coolness under pressure to drag his side back into the game with three kicks from three at the posts.

Although it is far too early to be making any conclusions from just half a dozen games, rugby punters should be mindful of the fact that all of last week's matches were low-scoring. Only Wasps' 26-15 defeat of Harlequins in the second double-header at Twickenham managed to breach the 40-point mark, and that may have had a lot to do with the sending off of George Robson after just 38 seconds. Perhaps this is a result of teams having to adjust their playing styles back to the old laws, and that the return of the maul sucked up valuable playing time. Perhaps it is just one of those aberrations that will be blown apart by matches such as Bath v Wasps, Harlequins v Leicester, London Irish v Gloucester and even Newcastle v Sale, which all could produce points this weekend.

One match that is unlikely to be full of tries and points though, is Worcester's scrap with Leeds. It might be a tad too early to be calling this a relegation scrap, but this fixture at Sixways could certainly act as a springboard in both directions in the league for the winner and the loser.

Leeds were exceptionally lucky that Kiwi fly-half Jimmy Gopperth had a shocker on his debut for Newcastle last week when the two sides drew 9-9 at Carnegie. The former Hurricanes stand-off must have had the wind put up him because he missed four of his seven kicks at the posts. This will be an altogether sterner test, and we'll know a hell of a lot more about Neil Back's side after Friday night's encounter. Punters should be mindful that both sides had just five days to prepare for it.

Tags: Bath, Geoffrey Riddle, Guinness Premiership Rugby Union Betting, Northampton, Rugby odds, Saracens, Wasps