Guinness Premiership Betting: Leicester's slow starts could cost them dear

Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 23 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Cockerill's men will need to stop Irish getting of to a flyer whilst Wasps look to take advantage of a Gloucester side in poor form. Geoffrey Riddle looks forward to this weekend's biggest Premiership games.

"As they have shown a distinct habit for starting quickly, you would imagine that the Exiles are also a perfect back-to-lay vehicle, too."

After a wonderful fortnight of Heineken Cup rugby, we are back with the domestic stuff and the Guinness Premiership. But in no way does it feel like a dull thud back down to earth, because Sky have plucked the two best matches out for a mouth-watering live double header.

London Irish try to atone for their sin of losing at home to the Scarlets last weekend by trying to beat their nemesis Leicester at the Madejski. Later on Saturday's card, Gloucester also try to scratch their drubbing at the hands of Biarritz with a full-frontal clash with Wasps. It'll be a fascinating afternoon of rugby punting, and one which throws up some decent opportunities.

Ever since Leicester's remarkable second-half fight back against the Ospreys at Welford Road in the first round of the Heineken Cup, I've been thinking about how teams perform throughout matches.

It's easy to make assumptions, but if you look at Leicester's record on the road in 2009, they simply don't start quickly enough. Under Richard Cockerill, they have played nine games away from home, and have only led at the break in two of those. The first-half slip up against the Ospreys brought this further into focus, and it seems that until things change, the Tigers should always be considered in-running material for backers.

As far as this weekend's clash is concerned, Leicester take on one of the Premiership's best sides at building up a lead early on. London Irish have led at the break in four of their five league fixtures his season, which measures up to their 2009 record. This year, they have been behind at half-time in just five of their 24 games in all competitions and on all grounds. It's an astounding record, and one which bodes well for their match-up on Saturday.

Leicester have pulled themselves together over the European window. They simply were not crossing the whitewash enough in the early rounds of the league, and now suddenly they have scored ten tries in two games. I've struggled to come up with a reason why they have suddenly been able to convert pressure into points. You could say the change of tournament helped, but you'd have to give a certain amount of credit to the incredible Billy Twelvetrees. His try, three conversions and a penalty on his first start for the Tigers against the Ospreys (Are you Wales in disguise!) speak for themselves, but he built on that performance against Viadana, showing a vast repertoire of skills which gave his team-mates time and space in which to play.

There was no team news, or handicaps at the time of writing, but Irish should really be considered four-point favourites for this. As they have shown a distinct habit for starting quickly, you would imagine that the Exiles are also a perfect back-to-lay vehicle, too.

Gloucester have been my team to lay all season, and I've made a decent profit so far from doing so. The West Country side face up to one of the most in-form sides in the section, too, with Wasps slipping to just one defeat in their last ten games in all competitions. Coach Tony Hanks has quietly been bringing along his squad, and although they come to Kingsholm with a long injury list, it is not too bad in reality. Phil Vickery, Tom Rees, Joe Worsley and Danny Cipriani are high-profile players. Cipriani has been playing full-back recently and has only contributed 31 points in five league appearances, and for the loss of Worsley and Rees, you've got Dan Ward-Smith and Serge Betsen instead. No bad thing.

That said, you couldn't have Wasps much shorter than they are on the early lines on Betfair, purely from a betting perspective. Gloucester have been installed as marginal favourites by the early layers on Betfair. I'd go scratch, but would be looking to take money on both sides in-running. I wouldn't necessarily want to be with a team that conceded 42 points last time as Gloucester did. But added to that, the Cherry and Whites murdered Bath on the first day of the season at home, and Wasps might take a long time to break down Gloucester, who surely can't get any worse.

Tags: Gloucester, Guinness Premiership, Guinness Premiership Betting., Heineken Cup, Leicester, London Irish, Tony Hanks, Wasps