Guinness Premiership Betting: James' boot key to top of table clash

Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 April 2009 / Leave a comment

This year's Guinness Premiership continues to fascinate and with just six points separating the top six teams it is the closest seasons ever, writes Geoffrey Riddle as he looks ahead to this weekend's key clashes.

With only three rounds remaining, few sides can afford a slip-up at this late stage, and Sky Sports are in a fortunate position because this weekend Bath host table-toppers Harlequins, while Leicester try to end Sale's title ambitions at Welford Road.

Both Bath and Harlequins were successful on Wednesday night. Bath edged out Wasps at the Rec in a fixture that saw the reigning champions concede their title. In contrast Harlequins thrashed Worcester 60-14, scoring ten tries, and the Londoners went top of the league for the first time since autumn 2003.

It is clear therefore, which team has the momentum going into this weekend's clash, and this match will be Bath's third in nine days. Harlequins' 10-try demolition of the Warriors also saw them go top of the try-scoring charts for this season, and their 54 tries is one better than Bath. It would be too easy, however, to consider the overs in the total points market for this fixture. The nature of the game, in the context of both sides jostling for either of the top two league spots, means that total points is a difficult market to call.

It could easily be a nervy and tense occasion, and one which could be decided by the kicking prowess of Nick Evans and Butch James. For the record, James is in astonishing form with the boot at the moment. He has nailed 23 of his last 24 kicks at goal, and the Springbok's percentage success rate this season is 70.59 compared to Evans's 65.63.

With such a slight advantage, and that Bath play at home, it would be fair to suggest that the hosts are three to four-point favourites for this encounter, which makes them something like a [1.57] shot. There was little liquidity at the time of writing, but I couldn't imagine giving Harlequins anything like a five or a six-point start in a match of this nature, even though they have won there only once this century - the 17-15 win in February 2005.

Another closely-fought tie will be Leicester's clash with Sale. For those who may not know, this is going to be the last match played at Welford Road this season due to the demolition of the old members' stand at the venerable ground. A victory therefore, is of the utmost importance. A win for Leicester would also put huge pressure on Sale, who lie sixth, although the Sharks' remaining two matches are against Harlequins and Northampton, both at Edgeley Park.

Sale went through the wobblies during the Six Nations and their performance against Northampton last month was absolutely awful. They turned up to Franklin's Gardens with 11 front-line regulars either injured or on international duty, and they lost 38-3. A week later they lost 38-20 to Harlequins at the Stoop, which was their seventh away defeat in eight road games, but things looked much better when they beat Bath last week in Manchester. Mark Cueto, Andrew Sheridan, Jason White and Lionel Faure all returned against the West Country side, and the win will give the Sharks some much-needed impetus ahead of their near-insurmountable challenge this weekend.

Leicester have been one of the form teams in the Premiership over the last few weeks, and their five-game winning run came grinding to a halt at Kingston Park against Newcastle, who just can't seem to lose at the moment.

This match will be decided by the packs. Both sides like to dominate possession, but more importantly they also play a territorial game, with Sale relying on the boot of Charlie Hodgson to get them into positions from which Sale's line-out can go to work. Leicester tend to use their field position in different ways, and the battle of the fly-halves will once again be central to the outcome.

Perhaps it is just one of those curious runs that chance throws up, but the last 17 matches in the Premiership have been won by the home side. The Tigers' win at the Memorial Stadium on March 13 was the last road success, and given Leicester's imperious form at Welford Road, you'd rather back Harlequins at Bath than Sale in the Tigers' lair. As such, I'd make Sale around six-point underdogs, and would be happy to lay them at anything smaller than around [2.8].