Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 30 January 2009 / Leave a comment

One week to go before the Six Nations starts, but this weekend sees a top-of-the-table tussle in the Premiership between London Irish and Gloucester at Kingsholm, an encounter that Sky have quite rightly decided to screen, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

What a match this promises to be. Few gave London Irish a hope of being top of the league at any stage this season, nor envisaged them playing what is probably the second-best rugby in the league after Bath.

London Irish have been innovative with their gameplan, and what's more, their constant offloading is very difficult to defend against. The Exiles must do without several of their key cogs for this fixture though as Steffon Armitage and Bob Casey are both training with their international sides, although Delon Armitage and Nick Kennedy return from England training especifically for this match. The loss of Casey, to my mind, is the biggest problem, purely because the lineout has increased its stock since the introduction of the ELVs.

London Irish's lineout has been the second-best in the league this season, and in terms of actual numbers they have won 131, which is exactly the same as Gloucester. The Cherry and Whites, however, have the luxury of being able to play locks Alex Brown and Will James should coach Dean Ryan so wish. The lineout, therefore, will prove to be the deciding factor in this clash. If London Irish cannot compete in that area, things will be very difficult for them.

There were no betting lines to act as a guide at the time of writing but I'd struggle to make Gloucester much shorter than around [1.7] for this, with London Irish no bigger than [2.2], which equates to a handicap start for the visitors of around two to three points. Realistically, I'd like to get with London Irish, especially as their record away from home this season has been excellent. Also, Gloucester's record at Kingsholm has been patchy.

Toby Booth's talented squad have picked up road wins at Bristol, Harlequins and Newcastle. No great shakes. But a two-point defeat at Welford Road was a solid marker, while losing at Sale by six points and at Saracens by three points is no disaster. Gloucester, meanwhile, have lost to Bath, Bristol and Sarries at home, and their 10-7 defeat of Newcastle was unconvincing to say the least.

Which brings us to the reverse fixture in December when London Irish completely dismembered Gloucester by beating them 42-12. It was a stunning result, and at the time both sides were playing their best rugby. Irish simply ran everything back at Gloucester that day. As the pressure told, the Cherry and Whites began to make mistakes which the excellent full-back, Peter Hewat, punished with six penalties. Such a comprehensive beating is very difficult to turn around at the best of times, and Gloucester are pretty much at their lowest ebb right now.

A naive defeat to the 14-men of Cardiff preceded a tortuous loss in appalling conditions at Biarritz last week which ejected them from the Heineken Cup. Not making the knockout rounds of Europe's premier competition was a bitter blow for the richly assembled squad down in the West Country, and the issues surrounding coach Ryan, as well as the problems with fly-half Ryan Lamb, are well documented.

Gloucester need to step up to the plate this weekend. They need to prove to themselves that they not only have the stomach for a fight when the chips are down, but also that they can prevent their entire season from unravelling in a matter of weeks.

Although Sale are also in action this weekend down at Sixways against Worcester, the Sharks stand just three points behind Gloucester in the table with a game in hand. West Country rivals Bath are third, only two points behind Gloucester with a game in hand, too.

Most of the time the importance attached to any win is over-blown. There is a real sense, however, that Gloucester need this victory more than others, and it might all become very ugly if they don't put in a good performance against the Exiles this weekend.