Guinness Premiership Betting: Falcons' draw number four?

Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Punters will be questioning their sanity as they contemplate another Newcastle draw

Saracens preparations are paying dividends but could Newcastle eke out another draw on Sunday? Meanwhile, Gloucester's lack of ambition leaves them struggling and things could get worse in Yorkshire this weekend, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

"There is scant evidence to suggest that Gloucester should be anything much better than underdogs this weekend. I could scarcely believe my eyes when I saw Leeds priced up at [4.3]."

After this weekend we will be almost a quarter of the way through the domestic regular season. When put into that context, punters need to start formulating solid opinions about how teams are playing, and how effective they are using those systems.

For instance, league leaders Saracens operate a low-risk kicking strategy that has yielded four victories in as many matches. Utilising the tactical kicking of fly-halves Derrick Houggard and Glen Jackson, Sarries then put in the big tackles in the right areas of the pitch and aim to avoid more organised contact at the breakdown. With fewer attacking rucks and mauls, they do not concede much possession. The reasoning is that if they wait long enough, their opponents will make mistakes that they can capitalise on.

What is clear also is that under the guidance of Brendan Venter, Saracens have been moulded into a team capable of beating anyone in the division. With a little bit of luck, they managed to beat London Irish at Twickenham, and that fortune was converted into a thorough trouncing of Harlequins at the Stoop in week three. It is no secret that Venter had the Men in Black in top form at the beginning of the campaign, and they have harvested those pre-season efforts.

Gloucester were seriously over-rated before this season began and the Cherry and Whites have had a serious wake-up call. Languishing in 10th place is not what this squad would have envisaged five weeks ago, but it is what their mindset deserves. And once again, their under-achieving outlook will be tested to the limit when they travel to Headingley on Sunday to take on Neil Back's Leeds outfit.

The one thing that Leeds don't lack is self-belief. Back, and his director of rugby, Andy Key, have instilled a warrior spirit in their troops, and there is scant evidence to suggest that Gloucester should be anything much better than underdogs for this fixture. I could scarcely believe my eyes when I saw Leeds priced up on Betfair's early lines at [4.3]. I made them around a [2.2] chance.

For a start, Gloucester have won just one of their last nine road fixtures in the Premiership. To be fair, the victory was at relegated Bristol, but that fixture took place over the Christmas period when Gloucester sat in fourth place, which is a marked contrast to where they are now.

Leeds were smashed by London Irish, and the wizardry of Shane Geraghty was too much for them last week at Northampton, where they gifted Saints 19 points in five minutes. Leeds are unlikely to be overwhelmed by such a blitzkrieg attack from a Gloucester side shorn of confidence and pummelled by citings. Leeds could conceivably worry Bryan Redpath's side out of the contest. Remember that Newcastle couldn't win there in week one, and there is precious little between the Falcons and Gloucester right now.

If there isn't much between Newcastle and Gloucester, then many punters will be backing a fifth successive Saracens victory when they visit Kingston Park this weekend. I'm not sure it will be so easy, however. Saracens' kick and wait approach will not fit comfortably with Newcastle, who will like nothing more than to run it straight back at them. Steve Bates's side may struggle for momentum however, because they have conceded the greatest number of turnovers in the league - twice as many as Sarries.

From a purely mathematical perspective, I saw this fixture as a scratch game too, and with the stalemate on your side due to Newcastle's unheralded three draws this season, I would fancy laying Venter's visitors at odds-on.

The best bet though, could be in the total points market. Sarries continual kicking should ensure that a lot of the action occurs down at Newcastle's end. But don't forget that the Falcons have conceded just two tries this season. The game could quite easily descend into a tackle-fest, with desperate attempts at the posts to keep the scoreboard ticking over. Another low-scoring encounter is therefore envisaged, and there will be scores of punters out there quietly wondering about their betting sanity as they seriously contemplate backing another Newcastle draw.

Tags: Geoffrey Riddle, Gloucester, Guinness Premiership Betting Odds, Guinness Premiership Betting Tips, Leeds Carnegie, London Irish, Newcastle Falcons, Rugby Union Betting, Saracens