Guiness Premiership / Editor / 18 September 2009 / Leave a comment

As Leicester open their new home, Geoffrey Riddle is anticipating a battle royal at the coalface. Elsewhere, still smarting from last week's disallowed try, our man is backing Quins to upset Sarries.

"I don’t think Newcastle have got a prayer here, and the winning margin of Leicester by +12points may prove to be good value."

Leicester unveil their new Caterpillar stand at Welford Road this weekend, and coach Richard Cockerill will be eager for his team to resemble the heavy-duty machinery that the sponsoring firm provide when they host Newcastle on Saturday.

The game is expected to draw 24,000 fans, and the grizzly Leicester faithful will be hoping that history will repeat itself on this landmark afternoon. The Falcons have won only once in the Tigers' lair since 1977, the 25-19 victory 12 years ago during the season in which they won the league. And the expectation of another momentous victory will have been heightened by the last three visits of the perennially relegation-threatened side. Last year, Newcastle were beaten 20-3, which added to defeats of 41-14 and 39-5 in the two seasons prior to that drubbing.

But Newcastle travel in hope, and possibly the belief that they can really compete against their highly-regarded rivals. It is no secret that the Tigers have failed to cross the whitewash in both of their league outings this season. Several critics of their more kicking-orientated fly-half, Jeremy Staunton, have laid the blame firmly at his door. I think the real reason though, is less controversial, and you've only got to look at the 34-28 pre-season victory over Munster that Staunton orchestrated to see evidence that the Irishman can convert pressure into points.

Leicester have faced Sale and Harlequins, who were amongst the top four best defending sides in the league last season. London Irish conceded the fewest points in the regular season with 386, Quins 387, Leicester 401, and Sale were next in line with 410. Throw in the fact that sides are still finding their feet with regards to the return of the driving maul and the preference of kicking for field position, and you have a plausible reason why total points layers have been in clover.

Newcastle's trump card at the moment is surprisingly their front-row, and there is going to be a battle-royal at the coal-face. Jon Golding, Rob Vickers and the All Black behemoth, Carl Hayman, have been in destructive form against Leeds and Sale. But the power of old war-horse Julian White was for all to see last weekend when he came on in the final quarter for Martin Castrogiovanni and Leicester will certainly not be bullied in that department.

And even if Newcastle do front up at scrum time, and Leicester's current try-scoring malaise continues through their first home fixture of the season, there is no evidence that Falcons fly-half Jimmy Gopperth can capitalise. The former Hurricanes pivot has been in shocking form with the boot, kicking just seven of his 13 attempts at goal. Newcastle are unlikely to get many chances at the posts, and a 54% strike-rate is going to make life harder still.

And it is not as if Newcastle's away record is anything to write home about, either. They failed to beat Leeds in their first fixture of the season, and if you look at their last three road matches in the league last year, they lost by 19 points to Harlequins, six points to Wasps and by 11 points to Bath. I don't think they have got a prayer here, and the winning margin of Leicester by +12points may prove to be good value when the market goes up.

I am still smarting by the decision of referee Andrew Small last week to disallow Northampton's last-ditch try against Saracens at Wembley. Take me talking from my pocket aside, and consider what price Sarries would be against Harlequins this weekend if they had lost? I have utmost respect for the revolution that Brendon Venter has managed at Saracens, and even mindful of the fact that the Men in Black had six pre-season matches and are fighting fit, I'll still be tempted to back Quins at anything like [1.66].

Tags: Geoffrey Riddle, Guinness Premiership Betting, Leicester Tigers, Newcastle Falcons, Rugby Union betting, Rugby Union Odds, Rugby Union Tips, Saracens, Wasps