Guiness Premiership / Ralph Ellis / 06 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Less thank a week after winning a thrilling shoot-out at the Millenium Stadium, Ralph Ellis wonders if Leicester will be able to overcome Bath and earn a place in the Guinness Premiership's grand final.

Teams win cups, squads win leagues. Successful teams inevitably play more games than losers, and when you get to the business end of the season it takes its toll. Tiredness, suspensions and injuries all mount up and that's when you find the depth of a club's bench to get them through.

And no, it's not football I'm talking about here, however much those sentiments might ring true. It's rugby union where the need for deep back-up in the professional era has been proved in the last few weeks.

If you followed this column's advice you'll have made money laying Gloucester in their two Guinness Premiership matches during the few days after they lost the Anglo Welsh Cup final. Their squad simply couldn't handle the demands of those fixtures coming so quickly on the back of a massive defeat on what should have been their big day. It suggested it wasn't possible to win a double in such a physical sport.

Now comes another club trying to have a go. With barely six days rest following Sunday's thrilling Heineken Cup shoot-out win over Cardiff at the Millenium Stadium, Leicester Tigers must face Bath on Saturday for a place in the Guinness Premiership's Grand Final.

The games are already taking their toll. This morning's Daily Express reveals that England fly-half Toby Flood will be out of action for six months after rupturing his Achilles tendon during the Cardiff game. That will mean Sam Vesty, who has been in outstanding form since Richard Cockerill took over and rescued his career, taking over number 10 duties but leaves their goalkicking resources thin on the ground. Scrum-half Julien Dupuy, planning a summer move to Stade Francais, was hoping to be released early because he wants to get home to his girlfriend, but will now be forced to complete his contract.

While Gloucester's Dean Ryan tried rotating his squad to deal with the back-up of big games, Cockerill is planning a different approach. Named yesterday as the Guinness Premiership's head coach of the season, he's asking the players who did an extra-time shift at the Millenium to turn up again at the Walkers Stadium.

"I won't make as many changes as people might think because the guys are playing well and you have to earn your spot in this team," he says. "I've posed this question to the players: 'Is this our season? You guys have to choose whether you want to go on and win something.'"

It's a bold plan, but it may not succeed. In the early market Leicester are priced between [1.38] and [1.78] to beat Bath and I'd suggest laying them at [1.5] and seeing if it's matched. As for Europe, if you followed my advice at the start of April to back them for the Heineken Cup at [9.2] it's time to lay at [1.92] and lock in some profit.

Five things you might not know about Sam Vesty

1. Born in Leicester in 1981, his middle name is Brook

2. He is the fourth generation of his family play for Leicester Tigers. His father Phil played 47 games as a prop, grandfather Bernard Albert played in the centre and his great-grandfather on his mothers side, Jack Dickens, was a wing.

3. He plays rhythm guitar - a Fender Stratocaster - in a rock band with one-time Tigers team mates Dan Hipkiss and George Chuter - it's called Slo Progress

4. He played cricket as a wicket-keeper for Leicestershire's second XI and county tennis at school before concentrating on Rugby

5. His sporting prowess hasn't spread to his golf - it's his favourite hobby but he can't get his handicap below 18