Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 19 February 2009 / Leave a comment

Gloucester have proved themselves adept at fighting their way back into games of late, while Harlequins usually perform best in the first 40 minutes . So, when the sides meet at the Stoop this weekend, the hosts are back-to-lay material, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Gloucester's Shed Heads were unconvinced when it was announced earlier this month that Carlos Spencer, the former All Blacks fly-half, was to be signed by their management team on a 17-month contract. The Cherry and Whites already had a brilliant but mercurial fly-half in Ryan Lamb.

But coach Dean Ryan has long wanted someone to mentor Lamb into the sort of maturity that would make him one of England's most gifted No.10s. Lamb certainly has the skill set but currently lacks the mindset, and it remains to be seen whether Spencer can perform in such a role. The ever-dependable Willie Walker has been shunted out to Worcester on loan, so it seems that Ryan may have picked the wrong type of influence for his wayward fly-half.

And yet Spencer was magnificent on his debut in the 24-17 victory over Sale Sharks last weekend. He galvanised the backline, and my Gloucester moles tell me that James Simpson-Daniel and Iain Balshaw haven't played so well in a long time.

What was most surprising about the match against Sale last week, however, was that for the second consecutive game, Gloucester had to claw their way back from a nine-point half-time deficit.

So for this weekend's clash against Harlequins at The Stoop, I think the home side might be a classic back-to-lay proposition, for those who like to trade. Harlequins are a first-half team and if you look at the 10 matches that they have played at home in the Heineken Cup and the league this season, they have only trailed Leicester (9-16) and Stade Francais (13-14) at the interval.

It is interesting to note that whatever the outcome of the first half has been in Gloucester's nine league and Heineken Cup away matches this season, the final score reflected that. They failed to get on top of Sale, London Irish, Newcastle, Cardiff and Biarritz on the road and lost to them all, while leads against Bath, Sarries, Bristol and Calvisano at half-time were all converted into away wins. Beating the last three teams away from home is hardly anything to write home about, and certainly not the level of opposition that they will be facing this weekend.

Only London Irish have tasted success at The Stoop this season, once in the league, and once in the EDF Energy Cup. With that in mind, and without any early handicap lines to go on, I don't think that I'm sticking my neck out too much to suggest that Harlequins should be priced at around [1.55].

The manner in which these two teams play also suggests a trade on the total points market. The average total points per match in this year's Premiership looks like being super low. It currently stands at below 40, whereas last year's average stood at 42.35. If you look at the last six times these two teams have met, the average total points in those matches stands at over 50 points. Both teams like to play running rugby and as such, there should be significant leverage for those who want to back the 'Overs' in Betfair's total points market.

Which brings me onto who is going to score these points.

For sheer dynamism and skill, Jordan Tuner-Hall is one of the best players in the Premiership at the moment. He has the ability to beat players by running into space, rather than just steam-rollering the opposition, and when he makes contact, he is one of the best off-loaders in the game. He is pivotal to Harlequins' attack, and is one of the main reasons why Ugo Monye has received the ammunition to become one of the joint-highest scorers in the league this season.

Backing a winger to score the first try of the match is not the most original punt in the world, I know. Gloucester have had problems with opposition wingers all season, though. In Gloucester's most recent matches, Richard Haughton touched down for Sarries, David Lemi for Bristol, Sailosi Tagicakibau, Topsy Ojo and Adam Thompson all did for London Irish. The list goes on. David Williams for Newcastle, even Ludovico Nitoglia scored for Calvisano.

Monye is in a rich vein of form, and is currently joint-top of the Premiership's try-scoring charts with six tries in nine league appearances. He is playing the best rugby of his career since he scored nine tries in 16 games in the 2003-2004 season. His odds of scoring the first try, or at least a try at all, will probably be longer than they ought to be as well.