Guinness Premiership Betting: Falcons soar past the handicap

Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 30 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle looks ahead to the weekend's Premiership fixtures and explains why backers and layers might want to focus on winning margin markets.

"I can't crab Gloucester much more on this blog, but they really look up against it tonight away at Sale. Bryan Redpath, must be pulling out what's left of his hair."

The Guinness Premiership's statsmen trumpeted earlier this week that 21 of the 36 games so far have been decided by a score or less - the most in Premiership history at this stage of the tournament.

Close-fought matches may partly suggest why teams such as Harlequins, Bath and perhaps even Gloucester, have found things so difficult. When you look closely at the stats, particularly for betting purposes, 25 of the 36 games so far have been decided by 12 points or fewer. Betfair winning margin punters would have been scotched four times in that sample of games because of draws, but 15 of the 36 were home wins by 1-12 points. Last year there were only 10 such games after the first six rounds. That may be just a statistical blip, but it also might mean that both backers and layers should take a greater interest in that particular market over the next few rounds.

One match this weekend that ticks that box is Newcastle's fixture with Worcester at Kingston Park. Newcastle come into the game with great fanfare, having registered three bonus-point victories in a row. It's quite an achievement for the Falcons, who, by their standards, are soaring high in sixth. Newcastle have played eight games at home in 2009. They suffered bonus-point defeats to Sarries and Bath, but the other six games they won by 1-12 points.

Worcester have been highly-tried away from home this season, having visited Leicester, Wasps and Northampton in the league. They blew out completely against Wasps, but at Welford Road and Franklin's Gardens, they went down by bonus-point margins. It looks tailor-made for the winning margin bet, but as it isn't a live game, I'll have to be content with backing the Falcons on a handicap of around five or six.

Punters need to keep abreast of who is under the watchful eye of England manager Martin Johnson at Pennyhill Park this weekend, and which members of the EPS squad have been allowed back to train with their clubs. To make things easy for you I have included a list of these players below. If you look at the list, you will see that between Leicester and Northampton, you could make almost an entire team out of the players who miss out on Saturday's live game between the two at Welford Road. It must make life very difficult for the layers to come up with an accurate assessment of each team's abilities. Bet365 were the first high street bookie to go up with a price of +6 Saints, but you can beat that by miles on Betfair if you fancy Leicester. The Tigers trade at [1.57] early doors, which equates to a handicap of around four points.

There is a similar problem, albeit for a different reason, when trying to assess the other live game, the mis-match between Wasps and Leeds. Wasps have not always been the best side to put away relegation fodder. They struggled markedly against Bristol in March and lost at home to Worcester earlier in the same season.

Leeds will struggle to beat the drop. They have just three points and they will do well to get more than 15 this season. As such, they should be considered somewhere between 17 to 20 point underdogs at Wasps. But given Wasps record in such encounters, you'd rather be at the bottom end of that scale than laying a 20-point handicap at [1.9].

Finally, I cannot crab Gloucester much more on this blog, but they really look up against it tonight away at Sale. Their hard-working coach, Bryan Redpath, must be pulling out what is left of his hair down in Kingsholm at the moment.

The Cherry and Whites are a complete shambles. Their tackling is poor and their away record is one victory in their last 10. They have never won at Edgeley Park in six journeys up to Manchester, either. Sale will rely on Charlie Hodgson to kick for position. With Brent Cockbain, the Premiership's tallest player, likely to boss the lineout for the home side, Sale's rucking game will hem Gloucester in their own half. It won't be pretty, but surely even with the return of the admirable Mike Tindall for the visitors, Sale deserve to be as short as [1.4].

Martin Johnson's revised EPS squad

Fowards: Steffon Armitage (London Irish) David Barnes (Bath Rugby) Duncan Bell (Bath Rugby) Richard Blaze (Leicester Tigers) Steve Borthwick (Saracens) George Chuter (Leicester Tigers) Jordan Crane (Leicester Tigers) Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers) Louis Deacon (Leicester Tigers) Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints) James Haskell (Stade Francais) Ben Kay (Leicester Tigers) Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints) Lewis Moody (Leicester Tigers)
Tim Payne (London Wasps) Steve Thompson (CA Brive) David Wilson (Bath Rugby) Joe Worsley (London Wasps)

Backs:Matt Banahan (Bath Rugby) Danny Care (Harlequins) Mark Cueto (Sale Sharks) Ben Foden (Northampton Saints) Shane Geraghty (Northampton Saints) Andy Goode (CA Brive)
Dan Hipkiss (Leicester Tigers) Paul Hodgson (London Irish) Ugo Monye (Harlequins)
David Strettle (Harlequins) Mathew Tait (Sale Sharks) Mike Tindall (Gloucester Rugby)
Richard Wigglesworth (Sale Sharks) Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon)

Players allowed back to their clubs for this weekend's fixtures:
David Barnes (Bath Rugby) Mike Tindall (Gloucester Rugby) Joe Worsley (London Wasps) Steffon Armitage (London Irish) Richard Blaze (Leicester Tigers) Ben Kay (Leicester Tigers) David Strettle (Harlequins)

Tags: Bryan Redpath, Geoffrey Riddle, Gloucester Rugby, Guinness Premiership Rugby Union Betting Odds, Leicester rugby, Newcastle Falcons, Rugby betting tips, Worcester Rugby