Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Leicester lack strength in depth and Harlequins are a big price to discover virtue in adversity, says Geoffrey Riddle. Controversial views from our man as he looks at the main contenders for this season's Guinness Premiership title.

"There are several teams who look poised to knock the champions off their perch."

This year's Guinness Premiership looks extremely competitive, and as a result, Leicester look too short at [3.55] to repeat last season's feat of finishing top of the league.

Although the Tigers have every right to be regarded as favourites, there look to be numerous reasons why they could struggle to replicate the sort of sustained challenge that saw them accumulate 71 points last season.

For a start, Leicester are a victim of their own success. Players such as Dan Hipkiss and Tom Croft have come through the ranks to perform at the highest level, and their renewed contracts, and Leicester's salary cap commitments, mean that the Tigers' are light on numbers. The fact that 13 players left in the summer and only seven joined up compounds the issue.

They have the smallest squad out of any of teams who finished in the top four last season, and with the new laws requiring a 23-man matchday squad, this will carry extra significance. Although they managed perfectly well without a star fly-half last season, Sam Vesty's hamstring problem may mean he misses the start of the season, while Toby Flood is on the sidelines until possibly after the November internationals. A slow start is expected, especially when you look at the fixture list, which sees the Tigers' play three of their first four games away at Sale, Harlequins and Bath.

And there are several teams who look poised to knock the champions off their perch. London Irish came within a whisker of beating Leicester in the Premiership final at Twickenham in May. The Exiles also managed to go through the entire league campaign without losing by more than six points in any fixture. Such small margins are easily worked upon and head coach Toby Booth is well aware of how to maximise his side's extreme potential. "We need a better goalkicker!", suggested Booth when asked how his side could improve last week. "Only once did we kick 100 per cent of our goals last year, that's why I recruited three goalkickers," he continued.

The 19-year-old Tom Homer fared best out of London Irish's kickers last season with a success rate at goal of 65.22%. Regular kicker Peter Hewat registered a success rate of 62.2, while Delon Armitage and Shane Gearghty had scores in the 50s. It simply isn't good enough, although it must be pointed out that new recruits Ryan Lamb and Chris Malone fared little better with the tee last season.

The masterstroke however, is the recruitment of Dave Ellis, France's defence coach. Ellis has a tough job at making Irish's defence more miserly - the Exiles conceded the fewest points in the league last season - but his ability to snuff out the best attacks is seen in no better light than when orchestrating France's defeat of the All Blacks in Dunedin this summer.

But if there is one team who look massively over-priced at [11.5], given what their squad is capable of, it is Harlequins. Forget all the boring coffee-house chatter about the dreary 'Bloodgate' incident that the media seem intent on dragging out, because the London club could easily triumph in the face of the media storm. In his essay on adversity, Francis Bacon wrote: 'Adversity doth best discover virtue' and even with Dean Richards gone, Harlequins can go very close.

For a start, it is questionable how much coaching big Deano actually put in. Head coach John Kingston was keen to play down his former boss's coaching involvement at the Guinness Premiership launch. He said: "Dean had a huge amount to do around the club, such as project-managing the training ground move from Roehampton to Guilford - he simply wasn't on the training field.

"He didn't do any of the coaching. That's the bottom line. Dean had a huge trust in me and the other coaches, and we took total responsibility for the way the team was set up, how we were going to play and how we were going to approach each game."

If that is indeed the case, then Harlequins are a staggering price for a team who finished second last season.

Despite losing several high profile players in their own media kerfuffle, Bath have recruited well in the off season, and look realistically the equal of London Irish at the very least. South African Luke Watson is an excellent addition to the Bath back-row, and the return of Bath's prodigal son, Olly Barkley, is a real coup.

With Butch James and Barkley operating at 10 and 12, the West Country club have a wonderful kicking game, and their big pack is well suited to the demands of the returning maul. With Wasps looking very dangerous, too, Leicester simply look too short despite their obvious claims.

Bath:

Players in: Luke Watson (Western Province), Olly Barkley (Gloucester), Matt Carraro (Waratahs), David Wilson (Newcastle), Ben Skirving (Saracens), Julian Salvi, Nicky Little (Padova), Chris Cracknell (Exeter).

Players out: Matt Stevens, Michael Lipman, Alex Crockett, Andrew Higgins, Justin Harrison (all resigned), Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu (Gloucester), James Scaysbrook (Exeter), Paulica Ion (London Irish), Laurence Ovens (Newcastle), Shaun Berne (Leinster), Chris Goodman (Bedford).

Harlequins:

Players in: Rory Clegg (Newcastle), John Andress, Lewis Stevenson, Josh Drauniniu (all Exeter), James Johnston (Samoa), Karl Dickson (Bedford), Gonzalo Camacho (Argentina).

Players out: Mike Ross (Leinster), Chris Malone (London Irish), Charlie Amesbury (Newcastle), Epi Taione (Racing-Metro), Andy Gomarsall (Leeds Carnegie), Peter Bracken, John Brooks, Phil Davies, De Wet Barry (all released).

Leicester:

Players in: James Grindal, Geoff Parling (both Newcastle), Jeremy Staunton (Wasps), Billy Twelvetrees (Bedford), Joe Duffey, Robbie Harris (both Nottingham).

Players out: Tom Varndell (Wasps), Marco Wentzel (Leeds), Julien Dupuy (stade Francais), Benjamin Kayser (Stade Francais), Ayoola Erinle (Biarritz), Santiago Bonorino (Northampton), Derrick Hougaard (Saracens), Martin Corry (retired), Ben Herring (retired).

London Irish:

Players in: Ryan Lamb (Gloucester), Chris Malone (Harlequins), George Stowers (Kobe, Japan), Andy Buist, Andy Perry (both Newcastle), Paulica Ion (Bath), Jamie Lennard (Doncaster), James Tideswell (Plymouth).

Players out: Shane Geraghty (Northampton), James Hudson (Newcastle), Tonga Lea'aetoa (Toulon), James Bailey (Lyons), Richard Skuse (Saracens), Warren Fury (Wasps), Eoghan Hickey (Wasps), Dominic Shabbo (London Welsh).

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